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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013


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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    The really interesting aspect to this warmig event is the distortion to the hemispheric U-fields that is occurring, and helping to heavily accentuate a pattern of tropical waves.

    At 70 hPa, the tropical stratosphere is at record low levels and almost certainly bringing about strong cooperation with the tropopause to shift and develop deep tropical convection.

    post-2478-0-87938200-1359236531_thumb.jp

    Upper sigma relative angular momentum anomalies depict a -ve zonal wind anomaly in the mid to high latitudes in the NH and quite strong -ve wind anomaly just south of the equator (corresponds to lifted tropopause and development of taller thunder clouds). This is likely to stress the U-field setting up a poleward shift in eddy flux.

    post-2478-0-92606300-1359236516_thumb.jp

    Overall relative angular momentum in the middle and lower layers is registering a massive increase in westerlies, in excess of +3 SD. That would be impressive in an El Nino winter, let alone an ENSO neutral winter. This increase being principally over the tropics, for the time being.

    post-2478-0-90749200-1359236462_thumb.jp

    Meantime, are we seeing a nodal propagation of temperature anomalies through the polar stratosphere?

    post-2478-0-67415200-1359236495_thumb.jp

    Likely tropospheric response continues to be anomalous mid and high latitude ridges in response to eddies developing off the sub-tropical ridges.

    GP, whilst not strictly strat related i was curious whether such westerly bursts are likely to arrest the development of the cold sea surface temperature anomolies in the Pacific and potentially lead us towards a weak El Nino through the coming months?

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    Steve whilst I agree to a certain extent, more especially with regards to the difficulty in forecasting exact placement of tropospheric synoptics (particularly with regard to the UK in the overall sch

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    The really interesting aspect to this warmig event is the distortion to the hemispheric U-fields that is occurring, and helping to heavily accentuate a pattern of tropical waves.

    At 70 hPa, the tropical stratosphere is at record low levels and almost certainly bringing about strong cooperation with the tropopause to shift and develop deep tropical convection.

    post-2478-0-87938200-1359236531_thumb.jp

    Upper sigma relative angular momentum anomalies depict a -ve zonal wind anomaly in the mid to high latitudes in the NH and quite strong -ve wind anomaly just south of the equator (corresponds to lifted tropopause and development of taller thunder clouds). This is likely to stress the U-field setting up a poleward shift in eddy flux.

    post-2478-0-92606300-1359236516_thumb.jp

    Overall relative angular momentum in the middle and lower layers is registering a massive increase in westerlies, in excess of +3 SD. That would be impressive in an El Nino winter, let alone an ENSO neutral winter. This increase being principally over the tropics, for the time being.

    post-2478-0-90749200-1359236462_thumb.jp

    Meantime, are we seeing a nodal propagation of temperature anomalies through the polar stratosphere?

    post-2478-0-67415200-1359236495_thumb.jp

    May have had a few this evening but that Temp anom chart looks ready to flip the NWP, there was a point made by C around the re-establish of the PV at higher Hpa levels and how this assisted 'flushing' of easterly anomalies into trop, downward forcing.

    This anom chart to me displays the temp bottleneck of that movement and downward momentum. It reaches a bottleneck simultaneously with the movement of the core Vorticity, once this passes the downward forcing temporarily upheld by the vortex lifting out opens floodgates,released energy moves east, ridges can manifest and the vortex circulation looking at it from trop to strat re-engages ,the temp break in downwelling re aligns and this a reverse of the split pattern seen at 30hpa on the JMA EP Flux charts where we achieved a brick wall.

    Hypothesising. But could just be the disruptive energy let's call it from the ssw reaching the displace canadian vortex is delayed, then the MJO trop signal pulls through on top of this as the disrupted signal echoes to the fore, vitally, coupled with the MJOP cycle. Result monster model flip..

    Could explain the firing back of the propensity to ridging breaking away from heavy default azores, could be had too many and thinking out loud ! Who knows thought would share the thoughts anyway.

    Displacement the split is a zero correlation analog inside the timeframe we have seen this Jan, zero.

    No other events on FU Berlin of similar nature, for that the SSt wildcard allude to by C early in season is the reason. Does this correlate now to CWs is my next question, all answers invited :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Posted Image

    Some less rosy news with a large disparity between the upper and mid stratosphere taking place.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    Very much doubt that the blocking we are likely to see during February has anything to do with what is

    happening at 10mb level in the coming days. We have seen a quick response and lucky for us fairly prolonged cold (very cold spell at times ) from the SSW. The blocking in February which is likely to be much more pronounced is the warming that has been propagating down through the layers with at least hree weeks of warming and reduced zonal winds at the 30mb level to still affect the troposphere.

    I think that the vortex positioning from 10 hpa downwards towards the troposphere has very much dictated the troposperic pattern over the past few weeks, cc. Getting a vortex shift at 10 hPa will aid any tropospheric response by releasing the vortex from the position it has resided, allowing a more amplified flow with the semi permanent Pacific height ridging transfering to other parts of the hemisphere. Edited by chionomaniac
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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough, Cambridgeshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Peterborough, Cambridgeshire

    two more animated analyses of ECM1279L90 PV at 400k and 600k isent

    post-19173-0-35773300-1359284933_thumb.g

    post-19173-0-84744600-1359285252_thumb.g

    Are these accessible online? If so, where can I find these charts?

    Thank you.

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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    Another animation this time from Judah Cohens sparring partner @AER.

    http://www.climatecentral.org/images/uploads/news/polar_vortex_animation_Jan13.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    Are these accessible online? If so, where can I find these charts?

    Thank you.

    http://www.pa.op.dlr.de/arctic/ecmwf.php
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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Herts 115m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Surprises
  • Location: Welwyn Herts 115m ASL

    Another animation this time from Judah Cohens sparring partner @AER.

    http://www.climatece...ation_Jan13.gif

    I have to say.... viewing graphics in the form of animations is the most pleasing part of being on Netweather.tv

    It's so good to see what has happened in the past to produce what is present.

    So many times folk just post graphics of the present with no explanation of why it's so interesting to them... When we can can see an evolution of a system/model it just makes so much more sense (as much as sense as can be) in the long journey of learning about the seeming chaos in weather patterns.

    Thank you Lorenzo and all the other people on here who make the effort to make or find such beautiful representations of our weather. It's a joy to view. Rather like this ol' favourite http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_NHEM/animweur.html

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    Posted
  • Location: tonbridge kent 75m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow,storms
  • Location: tonbridge kent 75m asl
    Animation of the SSW event prior, during and after it and how it affected the vortex http://www.climatecentral.org/images/uploads/news/polar_vortex_animation_Jan13.gif
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    I don't think that I have ever seen such a disconnect with the MJO forecasts and tropospheric pattern in the Atlantic sector since I have been monitoring them.

    With the MJO in strong amplitude phase 7

    http://www.cpc.ncep....clivar_wh.shtml

    we would expect to see the Atlantic dominated by a ridge

    post-4523-0-90735000-1359192192_thumb.gi

    not the strong vortex currently forecast.

    It appears that the stratosphere is overriding the MJO signal here.

    However, with the upper vortex shift then we could expect to see some sort of realignment in that pattern - though it may take some days for this to become apparent in the tropospheric model output. I can't see anything popping out of the blue in the next 10 days, but once the upper pattern change starts then we are more likely to see a more amplified output over the Atlantic - fitting in with the ECM 32 day projections.

    There are flaws in using those composite MJO charts. Firstly, other than being days with phase 7, how were the dates chosen? The biggest correlation is not with the MJO but the autocorrelation of using consecutive days from the same periods. Here is a chart of above average amplitude phase 7 January days, with neutral-ish MEI, all from separate years, it looks quite different -

    post-2779-0-74376900-1359370155_thumb.gi

    Secondly, we know from the work of Cassou etc that there is a lag time of 10-12 days to notice the effects of MJO phase on extra-tropical circulation, so the effect in these charts may not be from phase 7 but a combination of whatever phases were present a couple of weeks previously. Cassou suggests that there is an increased chance of -NAO following phase 7, so for example adding 10 days to the dates above we get this -

    post-2779-0-40541400-1359370320_thumb.gi

    There is your -NAO, probably closer to the research results.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    Would agree with you Interitus.

    Alan Huffman kindly worked out the MJO H500 anomaly composites a few years ago and they are a useful (and normally quite accurate) guide - but that is all they are. With the work of Cassou et al, we see the lag between certain MJO phases and following anomalies. There is an awful lot of work for someone to create an updated H500 seasonal anomaly map with the timelag for the certain phases incorporated.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Leeds: 100m (328ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow.
  • Location: Bramley, Leeds: 100m (328ft)

    Comments anyone?

    27 Jan 04.00gmt. WeatherAction expecting cold blasts and blizzards to return early Feb driven by new Sudden Stratospheric warming end Jan / start Feb

    Piers Corbyn, astrophysicist of WeatherAction said "Although the weather period 26-28 Jan has turned less-cold/ milder than our forecast we expect (75% confidence) a reversion to our forecast first issued 5 weeks ago in the next weather period which was Jan29 to Feb3 and which will be postponed a day or so. Standard Met Maps will become modified by effects of a renewed Sudden polar Stratospheric Warming (SSW) which upsets circulation and will give more N'ly blasts into Britain/Ireland & Europe. These developments are not obvious yet (27 Jan) but it is noteworthy that the polar stratosphere temperarure is still well above normal* after our confirmed sudden very rapid warming around 17/18th Jan: * ...and http://www.cpc.ncep....re/70mb9065.gif

    For info solar wind 27 Jan was fast:

    http://spaceweather....=2013&view=view (click forward for subsequent days).

    Link: http://www.weatherac...e.asp?a=513&c=5

    Edited by Barking_Mad
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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Comments anyone?

    27 Jan 04.00gmt. WeatherAction expecting cold blasts and blizzards to return early Feb driven by new Sudden Stratospheric warming end Jan / start Feb

    Piers Corbyn, astrophysicist of WeatherAction said "Although the weather period 26-28 Jan has turned less-cold/ milder than our forecast we expect (75% confidence) a reversion to our forecast first issued 5 weeks ago in the next weather period which was Jan29 to Feb3 and which will be postponed a day or so. Standard Met Maps will become modified by effects of a renewed Sudden polar Stratospheric Warming (SSW) which upsets circulation and will give more N'ly blasts into Britain/Ireland & Europe. These developments are not obvious yet (27 Jan) but it is noteworthy that the polar stratosphere temperarure is still well above normal* after our confirmed sudden very rapid warming around 17/18th Jan: * ...and http://www.cpc.ncep....re/70mb9065.gif

    For info solar wind 27 Jan was fast:

    http://spaceweather....=2013&view=view (click forward for subsequent days).

    http://www.weatherac...e.asp?a=513&c=5

    quite clearly they aren't well above average any longer. please to see he actually acknowledges that his forecast of undending cold was wrong. and what was the rapid warming 17/18th ? it was way earlier. (although maybe he is using whatever level in the strat that fits his forecast timescale !)

    as far as feb is concerned, the probable downwelling is not something that piers can take credit for forecasting. if it verifies, it was done long before on this thread without the help of solar influences !

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    I find this annoying and very misleading. Of course climatology suggests that there will be phases of downwelling negative mean zonal wind anomalies for upto 45 days following a SSW. However a new SSW is not forecast - rather the opposite in fact, the mean zonal winds are returning to positive today at 10 hPa. If ever one wants evidence that the man peddles nonsense, then he is providing that, quite willingly here.

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    Posted
  • Location: Paris suburbs
  • Location: Paris suburbs

    I find this annoying and very misleading. Of course climatology suggests that there will be phases of downwelling negative mean zonal wind anomalies for upto 45 days following a SSW. However a new SSW is not forecast - rather the opposite in fact, the mean zonal winds are returning to positive today at 10 hPa. If ever one wants evidence that the man peddles nonsense, then he is providing that, quite willingly here.

    Just be thankful he has, at least, acknowledged SSWs and not blamed it entirely on the sun or calling it something vague and wacky like "extra-terrestrial forces".
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    Posted
  • Location: West London
  • Weather Preferences: Winter : Cold, snow, frost, fog. Summer : Sunny N wind + clear skies
  • Location: West London

    Before the SSW I read on here about three SsWs.

    1) Is the current continued warming (going on the red highlight by weathermaster 25 Jan 2013) a new SSW or part of the same event moderating?

    2) Are any further events showing? I have seen no red areas posted in recent charts posted recently as there were before the SSW.

    3) Is it unusual to have more than one SSW per season and at what point does an SSW become standard warming (looking at the average the current rise looks normal rather than sudden).

    4) Chio you mentioned the NWP would respond about now. It seems to be changing but is this what you expected and is more entrophy to come as the SSW propogates down. I see the cold sopell just gone as a bonus with the real effects to come.

    5) Has the record snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere made any difference to the SSW or any further events going forward (i.e. a feedback)

    6) GP/Chio, you mentioned the uptick in solar activity in Dec may have offset the cold potential. Has the recent Jan uptick, now finished, made any difference in how this period has been affected? You seem to have this period of warmth nailed well but I wonder if anything has thrown a curveball (which may have the same end result but increased uncertainty). As an aside from my reading Dec was a potential bonus which never came to pass cold as it briefly was.

    7) (sorry for being greedy) how does wave activity relate to solar effects - or does it? I can't see the link but I understand the effects on UV higher up - is this like bouncing a ball passing through a more/less viscous membrane or wind sheer throwing off the trajectory? The mountain torque has thrown me as I thought solar effects would be polar regions (sorry for the basic view and I understand I could be wide off the mark so hope I make some sense).

    Can I also say thank you for this thread. I've found it of more use than FI trends and fascinating. To think I mostly ignored the strat last year.

    Thank you and keep up this valuable work.

    Sorry when I said 3 SSWs I meant potential. No fait accomplit.

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    Posted
  • Location: West London
  • Weather Preferences: Winter : Cold, snow, frost, fog. Summer : Sunny N wind + clear skies
  • Location: West London

    Ah Chio has clarified this as I was writting.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Just be thankful he has, at least, acknowledged SSWs and not blamed it entirely on the sun or calling it something vague and wacky like "extra-terrestrial forces".

    Which is, of itself, saying something!Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

    Which is, of itself, saying something!Posted Image

    Actually Piers has been nearer the mark this winter than many of our so called experts on here, it appears Piers is easy to make fun off here, but his record is as good as anyones here, sure he gets it wrong at times but look at the Net weather winter forecast, busted in December.

    Posted Image

    Posted Image

    Edited by Sceptical Inquirer
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Actually Piers has been nearer the mark this winter than many of our so called experts on here, it appears Piers is easy to make fun off here, but his record is as good as anyones here, sure he gets it wrong at times but look at the Net weather winter forecast, busted in December.

    Posted Image

    Posted Image

    According to him he's always right - even if the 'devastating storm' goes west instead of east!

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