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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013


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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    so is the strat event over now and are we likely to see ongoing effects or is this now the time to hang up the strat boots for another year?

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    Steve whilst I agree to a certain extent, more especially with regards to the difficulty in forecasting exact placement of tropospheric synoptics (particularly with regard to the UK in the overall sch

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Almeirim de Fazendas, Portugal
  • Location: Almeirim de Fazendas, Portugal

    The stratospheric pattern does seem (so far) to be mirroring some previous recent years with a strong warming followed by a drop right back to relatively cold conditions, leading to above average Spring conditions and then leading to a summer soaking. Far too early to think about in terms of when the final warming comes, but I'd rather we'd give yet another summer soaking a miss this year though..

    However, in the meantime, and in respect of the lagged effect of the stratospheric patterns on the troposphere, the warming still has a part to play - whether it does or doesn't affect the UK favourably for cold weather in February

    Edited by Tamara Road
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    Posted
  • Location: Portugal, Fátima
  • Location: Portugal, Fátima

    Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

    Currently at 995 mb -- 6-hourly pressure time series: 987, 980, 963, 935, 922, 919 at tau+36. 65mb/24hours is ferocious/extreme deepening

    5 hRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

    GFS back to 919 mb with explosive cyclone off east coast that will move WNW of Iceland during next 36-48 hours. http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/294659035070861314/photo/1

    Matthew Hugoâ€@MattHugo81

    The low in the W Atlantic goes from 987mb to 938mb in about 18hrs! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/bracka.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0.gif - A drop of 49mb! #wow

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    The stratospheric pattern does seem (so far) to be mirroring some previous recent years with a strong warming followed by a drop right back to relatively cold conditions, leading to above average Spring conditions and then leading to a summer soaking. Far too early to think about in terms of when the final warming comes, but I'd rather we'd give yet another summer soaking a miss this year though..

    However, in the meantime, and in respect of the lagged effect of the stratospheric patterns on the troposphere, the warming still has a part to play - whether it does or doesn't affect the UK favourably for cold weather in February

    That stratospheric pattern is not responsible for the summer soaking (and infact summers 2009 and 2010 were warmer than average)..

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    Posted
  • Location: Almeirim de Fazendas, Portugal
  • Location: Almeirim de Fazendas, Portugal

    That stratospheric pattern is not responsible for the summer soaking (and infact summers 2009 and 2010 were warmer than average)..

    I seem to remember GP pointing out that strong negative zonal anomalies after very strong final warmings were attributable to the southerly tracking jet stream and high pressure across the pole that we have seen in various recent summers such as 2007, 2011 and last summer as well. I'm less sure about 2009 and 2010, although 2010 I think featured some blocking over the pole as well. Last summer for sure was exacerbated by the easterly QBO phase which encourages warmth over the pole and accentuates HLB and a southerly tracking jet stream - much as occured in 2007

    Edited by Tamara Road
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    I seem to remember GP pointing out that strong negative zonal anomalies after very strong final warmings were attributable to the southerly tracking jet stream and high pressure across the pole that we have seen in various recent summers such as 2007, 2011 and last summer as well. I'm less sure about 2009 and 2010, although 2010 I think featured some blocking over the pole as well. Last summer for sure was exacerbated by the easterly QBO phase which encourages warmth over the pole and accentuates HLB and a southerly tracking jet stream - much as occured in 2007

    Ah right, i knew it was very low GLAMM that was the cause but was unaware that he had deemed the strong final warming as responsible.

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    Posted
  • Location: Almeirim de Fazendas, Portugal
  • Location: Almeirim de Fazendas, Portugal

    Ah right, i knew it was very low GLAMM that was the cause but was unaware that he had deemed the strong final warming as responsible.

    As always, a combination of factorsPosted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Sun and Snow
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll, Scotland

    Updated yesterday shows temperatures are still on the rise I've made a zoom in on the image,

    post-6686-0-59253100-1359134733_thumb.pn

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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    Second night on the bounce have spotted this in the lower res strat forecast at T300.

    post-7292-0-40335400-1359155675_thumb.gi

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Second night on the bounce have spotted this in the lower res strat forecast at T300.

    As there's no colour what are you showing?

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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    Thanks !

    Was busy attempting to add some colour.

    post-7292-0-84774800-1359158358_thumb.jp

    Going to dream about a stratopsheric omega vortex block now..

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    we have seen several attempts this winter to drain the canadian vortex and each time it has reformed, stronger than it was. my concern, as ever, is that whilst energy is on the move, we cannot get a decent block to advect cold towards nw europe. if this upcoming movement of the upper strat vortices verifies then i would not be surprised to see the canadian vortice reform thereafter. will that be hudsons, baffin or maybe further west ? if it repeats and continues to flood the far nw atlantic with energy, our only hope of feb cold is via a scandi block or a repeat of the pattern we have just been through. that wouldnt surprise me.

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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    I thought about the same bluearmy, and wondered if the Canadian Warming of the vortex Nov/Dec set up an almost default background pattern that has remained with us across this Winter, if not a pattern then a pre-disposition to return to the Atlantic drainage base state. Was also wondering if NAO state prior to the SSW event created any definitive pattern throughout the period of time where the zonal winds reverse.

    From the Berlin list here are the dates featuring Canadian Warmings rolled forward, again the height anomaly that is suffering from disconnect remains. As C notes - Strat killing the MJO , is the signal bouncing back and setting up this wave train of furious lows across the hemisphere, if not where is the energy that would normally be associated with setting up the ridge heading?

    Interestingly the mean Atlantic elongated trough seems to be another response of some SSW cases.

    post-7292-0-92116800-1359194409_thumb.pnpost-7292-0-73325700-1359194416_thumb.pn

    One thing I am certain of is that the NWP will flip at some point, the lifting out of the mean Vortex took 48-72 hrs to pull through on the modelling from when it was measured on the Strat charts, for this reason would not be surprised to see a chart flip akin to that ECM disappearing, perhaps this time a re-appearance..

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    Thanks SnowKing nice to have the 32day ens from EC. Is this just a one off, as I didn't think us mere mortals could access the ec 32?

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    Can someone tell me what this is? I would expect warming towards the end of Feb but I don't know if this is true?

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

    I don't think that I have ever seen such a disconnect with the MJO forecasts and tropospheric pattern in the Atlantic sector since I have been monitoring them.

    Exactly the question or issue I raised a few days back, and certainly the same answer I was drifting towards. The fact that the vortex can override the MJO phase is more evidence still of the importance of strat warming disruption to the vortex in terms of winter synoptics. It does also rather reinforce the point that a SSW does not automatically mean cold, and as we are seeing now if can actually fire energy towards us just as effectively as a strong vortex undamaged by SSW can do.

    We have been a bit unlucky really. Had the vortex moved over to the pacific side then all the major height rises could have been with us, and then very blocked synoptics indeed would have been the result.

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    Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Forecaster Centaurea Weather
  • Location: Worcestershire

    ..but notably the Global Wind Oscillation being held back in a more phase 5 orbit due to the manifestation of the extra-tropical measures in this oscilation compared to the MJO which has a tropical compenent only.

    As we see the GWO signal 'mature', more of a signal to develop that disrupted flow in the Atlantic.

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    Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

    We are seeing an interesting and consistent signal at 10 hPa from day 10 which is likely to have a bearing on the troposphere thereafter.

    Firstly, the mean zonal winds at this level are still negative - but this is likely to reverse back to weak positive by the 28th.

    post-4523-0-37073900-1359191451_thumb.gi

    Note the position of the upper ridge - over the Pacific/Alaskan sector where it has resided for most of January since the SSW. As this fills the vortex position is beginning to change and from day 10 the clear trend is to shift the vortex towards Siberia.

    post-4523-0-89696300-1359191880_thumb.pn

    It is likely that there wiill be a tropospheric response to this and that the Polar vortex that has dominated the Atlantic sector will have the opportunity to shift.

    I don't think that I have ever seen such a disconnect with the MJO forecasts and tropospheric pattern in the Atlantic sector since I have been monitoring them.

    With the MJO in strong amplitude phase 7

    http://www.cpc.ncep....clivar_wh.shtml

    we would expect to see the Atlantic dominated by a ridge

    post-4523-0-90735000-1359192192_thumb.gi

    not the strong vortex currently forecast.

    It appears that the stratosphere is overriding the MJO signal here.

    However, with the upper vortex shift then we could expect to see some sort of realignment in that pattern - though it may take some days for this to become apparent in the tropospheric model output. I can't see anything popping out of the blue in the next 10 days, but once the upper pattern change starts then we are more likely to see a more amplified output over the Atlantic - fitting in with the ECM 32 day projections.

    Very much doubt that the blocking we are likely to see during February has anything to do with what is

    happening at 10mb level in the coming days. We have seen a quick response and lucky for us fairly prolonged cold (very cold spell at times ) from the SSW. The blocking in February which is likely to be much more pronounced is the warming that has been propagating down through the layers with at least hree weeks of warming and reduced zonal winds at the 30mb level to still affect the troposphere.

    Edited by cooling climate
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