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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013


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Posted
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL

    I was a bit bored, so I plotted some graphics (Hovmoller diagram) about this SSW, from the NCEP/DOE Reanalysis (R-2), which has 4x daily rotating archive. Nothing special. I think it should be interesting for some. These are custom made, so for now only me and Netweather have them, and published. Posted Image Of course in this "form". There might be graphics out there in a similar style of the same level and parameter. Posted Image

    All these graphics represent zonal means. Data courtesy of NCEP.

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    Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

    And I plotted the 10mb 60N zonal wind, for a better estimate of the actual SSW timing.

    Posted Image

    And since I was even more bored, I plotted Hovmoller diagram of the 18z GFS. Posted Image

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    And 2 graphics from the Low resolution GFS 00Z.

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    And some more plotted GFS data (yes I was bored on a Saturday evening Posted Image ). Basically, the Polar vortex trying its best at a quick recovery in the upper strat.

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    Zonal means.

    Posted ImagePosted Image

    Best regards.

    Posted Image

    Edited by Recretos
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    Steve whilst I agree to a certain extent, more especially with regards to the difficulty in forecasting exact placement of tropospheric synoptics (particularly with regard to the UK in the overall sch

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Presently Damian the mid stratosphere has warmed with the vortex being displaced and split. This has left mean negative zonal winds with two vortex centres - one over Canada, the other over Siberia.

    The canadian vortex is forecast to be destroyed by a further warming at 10 hpa. Look at the profile - the stratosphere is completely dominated by a ridge where normally the strong vortex is present.

    post-4523-0-60597200-1358637836_thumb.pn

    So where does that lead us tropospherically? Well to get an idea of this we need to look at the base of the stratosphere at 100hPa. Here the Canadian vortex almost becomes a 'free agent' no longer driven from above. Both the GFS and the ECM suggest that the residual Canadian vortex remnants will try and link up with the stronger Siberian counterpart. at T=240. A large ridge dominates the rest of the NH at this level - very unusual but entirely in line with the SSW.

    post-4523-0-36551000-1358638189_thumb.pn

    This translates to a centrally placed Arctic ridge at 500 hPa.

    post-4523-0-82975600-1358638309_thumb.pn and at this point the vortex is very disturbed across the NH. The transfer of energy across the Atlantic is entirely in line with the upper vortex repositioning, however, we have already seen the models overestimate this transfer of energy once in the last week. There is also the strong possibility that once the Canadian vortex demise is calculated there still remains the possibilty of strong NH blocking. The pattern above leaves a very negative AO signature - continuing the theme from just after the beginning of the SSW.

    post-4523-0-12329000-1358638639_thumb.gi

    If the models have overestimated the surge of the v residual vortex energy across the Atlantic, then the Siberian vortex is waiting in the wings to back west - an enticing prospect for cold lovers.

    Many thanks for the very detailed response and it clears things up immensely. As I thought the canadian PV is about to take a battering and will try to link up with the stronger siberian PV indicative of a very disturbed PV. It all suggests strong greenland heights eventually and no steamrolling of the atlantic across the country - going by these upstream signals, I wouldn't be surprised now to see the jet force any atlantic attack on another SE trajectory just like we have now maintaining strong heights to our NE and as we move into Feb we come under the influence as you say of the siberian vortex with heights staying strong over Greenland - getting a bit carried away but such a prospect screams echo of the synoptics we saw in Dec 2010.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    Recretos, the vortex reforming strongly at the top of the strat is to be expected. It can also aid in the coming weeks - as the vortex recovery descends the negative mean zonal winds can be flushed downwards ahead of this.

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    Posted
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL

    Yes, all clear about that. Posted Image I wasnt pointing it out as an "evil omen". Just as a fact. Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    Yes, all clear about that. Posted Image I wasnt pointing it out as an "evil omen". Just as a fact. Posted Image

    Cheers for that.
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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

    Chiono

    What do you make of this comment made on another site?

    "In addition 10mb forecasts suggest a return to a more circumpolar vortex and marked cooling aloft in the Stratosphere, therefore it seems likely that a return to more Atlantic dominated whether will prevail"

    Do you agree with this?

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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands

    Chio, I put your comments at Dutch Website VWKforum as well. http://forum.vwkweb.nl/chatbox/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=13188&p=123734#p123734

    And the Danish 'UKMO' have some information about the SSW as well placed at their website! http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/den_kolde_vinter_kommer_oppefra

    If the models have overestimated the surge of the v residual vortex energy across the Atlantic, then the Siberian vortex is waiting in the wings to back west - an enticing prospect for cold lovers.

    Please tell me more about this. How does this work?

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Please tell me more about this. How does this work?

    sebastian, chio is merely saying that if the energy from the west (decaying canadian vortex) is overstated by the models, then heights will rise somewhat to our west/northwest. if you look to our ne, you will see the siberian vortex looking for somewhere to send its energy. as it stands, without any height rises to our nw, that cant really happen.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    Chio, I put your comments at Dutch Website VWKforum as well. http://forum.vwkweb....=123734#p123734

    And the Danish 'UKMO' have some information about the SSW as well placed at their website! http://www.dmi.dk/dm..._kommer_oppefra

    Please tell me more about this. How does this work?

    Thanks for that Seb.

    Ba has explained my thoughts well regarding the backing west - obviously not the form horse as it stands.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

    If the models have overestimated the surge of the v residual vortex energy across the Atlantic, then the Siberian vortex is waiting in the wings to back west - an enticing prospect for cold lovers.

    Agree Chio, though as I just posted over on the model thread I would feel a lot happier if any of the models started to pick up on this. I have that horrible back of the neck itchy feeling that the Canadian vortex will empty into the atlantic and the Siberian centre sit stationary or even back further east. That means a problem for height rises, and the eventual end of our SE flow. I hope my mind is just exaggerating the appearance of current op modelling, but December is still fresh in the memory (though to be fair strat forecasts back then did not suggest substantive height rises to the north, as you were quick to point out yourself in late November...)

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

    sebastian, chio is merely saying that if the energy from the west (decaying canadian vortex) is overstated by the models, then heights will rise somewhat to our west/northwest. if you look to our ne, you will see the siberian vortex looking for somewhere to send its energy. as it stands, without any height rises to our nw, that cant really happen.

    Agreed. Fingers massively crossed for overmodelling of the canadian vortex progression. Back in December if anything this process was under modelled...

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    Posted
  • Location: UK/ EU resident in Almeirim de Fazendas, Portugal
  • Location: UK/ EU resident in Almeirim de Fazendas, Portugal

    Taking into account it is a decaying section of vortex, the fact that it is decoupled from/and due to no main driving force of a polar westerly 'wheel' so to speak, and also taking into account natural model eastward bias at a given range - it seems highly likely to me that the atlantic and residual vortex strength is being over modelled and we should make southward and westward adjustments accordingly.

    Cat H - the situation is very different to December. The energy over the atlantic was driven by a (relatively) stronger and more integral vortex - even though back then it was still stretched, weaker and not as not organised as it usually is in the absence of favourable stratospheric conditions.

    I may not have understood this properly, but wouldn't Phase 8 MJO also support high pressure over Greenland as a switch from the Pacific? This phase movement from 7 to 8 happening in tandem with the destruction of the Canadian vortex to finally facilitate the development of pressure rises to the NW?

    Edited by Tamara Road
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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

    I may not have understood this properly, but wouldn't Phase 8 MJO also support high pressure over Greenland as a switch from the Pacific? This phase movement from 7 to 8 happening in tandem with the destruction of the Canadian vortex to finally facilitate the development of pressure rises to the NW?

    Yes - I agree in theory... but back in December the vortex transferred completely to Siberia and there was still enough energy left to hold sway in the atlantic for a fortnight but not enough energy to fire it all the way through to Europe. The result then was that we lost our low heights to the south too.

    Here again we have a relatively depowered vortex segment, this time depowered due to strat assault, and modelling has it sitting hard and fast over the atlantic. CPC anomaly chart show the same cool to cold zonality picture out to 14 days at present. Siberian shard still showing no op run progression to drop towards us.

    I'm in pessimistic mood as it is... but I am just nervously smelling a developing situation that might see cold rain as the dominant factor from the end of this week... unless we can get that residual energy to fire far enough east to allow height rises behind and then it is game on. Either that or we need it to die in situ... but that looks even less likely at present.

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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    Snippet from eumetsat including meto talking about satellite data assimilation and resolution.

    http://www.eumetsat.int/Home/Main/News/Features/827337?l=en

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    Looks like its topped out and maintaining at around -50c;

    post-12721-0-10288000-1358774224_thumb.j

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    If GP and Chio have ever claimed that a SSW guarantees a re-run of 1947, I've certainly never seen it...

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    Posted
  • Location: Isle of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, snow in winter, wind in Autumn and rainbows in the spring!
  • Location: Isle of Lewis

    Hi Guys, I have been reading your posts intently for the past four weeks or so and it can make some really interesting reading. I have a hunch that after the mild spell lasting Approx 7-10 days thecold will come back.Is there anything in the SSW forecasts that could support my hunch? PS Chino your a weather god! lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    Hi Guys, I have been reading your posts intently for the past four weeks or so and it can make some really interesting reading. I have a hunch that after the mild spell lasting Approx 7-10 days thecold will come back.Is there anything in the SSW forecasts that could support my hunch? PS Chino your a weather god! lol

    Thanks Lots.

    I think that you are right. There is a lot of uncertainty in the strat forecasts presently - no two are the same out at day 10. Especially with the modelling on energy crossing the Atlantic at lower and mid strat levels. What should this tell you? If you can't trust the strat output presently and that this is having a large bearing on the trop output, then don't trust that either. I wouldn't be surprised to see a GH pop out days 12-15 as per Cohen because longer start forecasts are beginning to shift that ridge around away from the Pacific centre.

    Hello Chiono

    Any thoughts to how next winter might pan out stratospherically? I might have a memory fault but I do recall you making a general idea on how the next season might pan out.

    Not yet!!!

    (other than less favourable west based QBO)

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