Jump to content

Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013


Recommended Posts

I know nothing about SSW - so peaase excuse my ignorance. But could someone please confirm the current state and whether additional SSW is occurring or likely to occur in the next few days. A person of my 'acquaintance' has suggested that

1. Around 16/17/18/19th we expect the red region of the warmed stratosphere in the monitor/ standard projection link below to expand / darken (warm) rapidly.

Standard dynamic moving model smoothed record and projections of 30mb temps

This shows temp of Stratosphere: http://twitpic.com/bsk4gb/full There are various measures around. WeatherAction forecast was issued Jan3, before model forecasts for the dates of WeatherAction SSWs.

OBSERVED: The flic (which includes short time ahead projections) shows a ‘step like’ expansion and darkening over Asia around 16-18th FORECAST EXCELLENTLY CONFIRMED.

Other measures of SSWs confirm this rapid growth. This SSW is a record breaker in observed stratospheric warming terms already.

and it would be rather useful for me to know which end of his body he's talking out of :)

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 2.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

I know nothing about SSW - so peaase excuse my ignorance. But could someone please confirm the current state and whether additional SSW is occurring or likely to occur in the next few days. A person of my 'acquaintance' has suggested that

and it would be rather useful for me to know which end of his body he's talking out of Posted Image

As weathermaster posted on the previous page, there is another warming pulse just possibly beginning - (also see below)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_JFM_NH_2013.gif

Remains to be seen how strong this is though.

Piers may well have nailed this weekend's weather though in his January forecast - we'll have to wait until the 22nd to know for sure. So for this weekend at least he's probably talking out the top end of his body Posted Image

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

As weathermaster posted on the previous page, there is another warming pulse just possibly beginning - (also see below)

http://www.cpc.ncep....JFM_NH_2013.gif

Remains to be seen how strong this is though.

Piers may well have nailed this weekend's weather though in his January forecast - we'll have to wait until the 22nd to know for sure. So for this weekend at least he's probably talking out the top end of his body Posted Image

That will be interesting to see if that pulse develops quickly into something, cheers Beng

BFTP

Link to post
Share on other sites

As weathermaster posted on the previous page, there is another warming pulse just possibly beginning - (also see below)

http://www.cpc.ncep....JFM_NH_2013.gif

Remains to be seen how strong this is though.

Piers may well have nailed this weekend's weather though in his January forecast - we'll have to wait until the 22nd to know for sure. So for this weekend at least he's probably talking out the top end of his body Posted Image

Cheers :)

As for PC - he reminds me a famous Morecombe and Wise sketch: "I predicted all the right weather, just not for the right reasons" :D

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Good agreement on the AO to shoot up in around 7-10 days. Statosphere forecasts also suggest the polar stratosphere to cool down to average for this time of year. I always thought there was a considerable lag phase between the two events, but the AO at tropospheric level seems to be following the stratospheric conditions at a lag phase of just a few days and it's beginning to show in the models e.g. some going for a breakdown of cold as early as 6-7 days away. Is it really going to be this quick?

Link to post
Share on other sites

I know nothing about SSW - so peaase excuse my ignorance. But could someone please confirm the current state and whether additional SSW is occurring or likely to occur in the next few days. A person of my 'acquaintance' has suggested that

and it would be rather useful for me to know which end of his body he's talking out of Posted Image

Not the top end.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

By definition the British Isles would be in Ice age if cold spells did not end.

Regarding this one, i think if it were mentioned in folk law then it would have to go on for at least 6 weeks.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted Image

clearly i know this is way out in the depths but does this simply say that the strat is restrengthening offering us a more typical zonal febuary?

and has our ssw event now past its peak and roughly how long do these effects last ?

was this strat event a better event if compaired with 09/10 event that caused the long cold spell ?

sorry because im increasingly becoming rather addicted to the strats effects many thanks.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Matt, if you run through the 100 hPa forecast it explains a lot regarding the energy pulses crossing the Atlantic and the Arctic high formation. Still very much an FI forecast though and one of the more unreliable strat ones - but the trend has been there for a few runs.

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

Can MJO move round to phase 8 for the first fortnight of February, is this the underlying signal from EC32 perhaps?

No complaints here if it works out like that !!

post-7292-0-10390500-1358590166_thumb.gi

Looks like the gfs 00z has it nailed at 384 hrs.Posted Image

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Can MJO move round to phase 8 for the first fortnight of February, is this the underlying signal from EC32 perhaps?

No complaints here if it works out like that !!

post-7292-0-10390500-1358590166_thumb.gi

Certainly the bias corrected ECM32 keen on phase 8:

Posted Image

In terms of the multi-model output (thanks to Recretos for this):

Posted Image

GEFS and ECM most keen on phase 8 so far

SK

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

John Hammond on bbc news channel 21:28 this evening. Everyone should watch this and get it to top played vid. on beeb site.

Excellent.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21094288

Good evening Lorenzo. I'm new to this site and still learning but I wanted to ask if John Hammond is correct in saying that the current cold and snowy period of weather is at least party due to a SSW event? Can you explain. Thanks

Link to post
Share on other sites

Good Evening Frosty, Yes John Hammond is correct in saying this, and for certain the SSW event has influenced the current outbreak of cold, the purpose behind posting the video is that seeing this cited on TV again is testament to the work put in over the last few years by the originator of this thread and others.

Here are a couple of charts I posted elsewhere today, whilst doing a check on the impact of the SSW, for the Northern Hemisphere towards the end of December and the first half of January that hopefully show the difference the event made, there are far more technical ways to illustrate this so stripping it right back to daily 500mb profiles.

Towards mid December things were looking very downbeat on the Model runs, continuous zonality and consistently nothing on the horizon to change this, so much so that many were counting on this event to change the pattern and/or to qualify scepticism about the impacts of a warming.

From this chart you can see the cold air bottled up at high latitudes.

post-7292-0-42566600-1358622466_thumb.gi

Add in the warming event and the picture changes completely, here are stratospheric profiles in Gif format which are the equivalent of an atmospheric atomic bomb detonating.

10mb / 30mb / 50mb

post-7292-0-35027000-1358623090_thumb.gipost-7292-0-10212700-1358623115_thumb.gipost-7292-0-66982300-1358623140_thumb.gi

The cold polar air being dislodged from it's winter residency and spilling south, the vortex usually residency now having an Arctic High of considerable magnitude parked over it.

post-7292-0-91750300-1358622475_thumb.gi

Best advice I can give is read the first post on the thread from Chiono this brilliantly explains the whole thing. I guess there will be some debate around whether this was a 'regular' winter outbreak or not, and how much the warming actually influenced things. For me anyway the SSW shuffled the NH pattern and created an escape for what was becoming a potentially locked zonal pattern.

  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites

Good Evening Frosty, Yes John Hammond is correct in saying this, and for certain the SSW event has influenced the current outbreak of cold, the purpose behind posting the video is that seeing this cited on TV again is testament to the work put in over the last few years by the originator of this thread and others.

Here are a couple of charts I posted elsewhere today, whilst doing a check on the impact of the SSW, for the Northern Hemisphere towards the end of December and the first half of January that hopefully show the difference the event made, there are far more technical ways to illustrate this so stripping it right back to daily 500mb profiles.

Towards mid December things were looking very downbeat on the Model runs, continuous zonality and consistently nothing on the horizon to change this, so much so that many were counting on this event to change the pattern and/or to qualify scepticism about the impacts of a warming.

From this chart you can see the cold air bottled up at high latitudes.

post-7292-0-42566600-1358622466_thumb.gi

Add in the warming event and the picture changes completely, here are stratospheric profiles in Gif format which are the equivalent of an atmospheric atomic bomb detonating.

10mb / 30mb / 50mb

post-7292-0-35027000-1358623090_thumb.gipost-7292-0-10212700-1358623115_thumb.gipost-7292-0-66982300-1358623140_thumb.gi

The cold polar air being dislodged from it's winter residency and spilling south, the vortex usually residency now having an Arctic High of considerable magnitude parked over it.

post-7292-0-91750300-1358622475_thumb.gi

Best advice I can give is read the first post on the thread from Chiono this brilliantly explains the whole thing. I guess there will be some debate around whether this was a 'regular' winter outbreak or not, and how much the warming actually influenced things. For me anyway the SSW shuffled the NH pattern and created an escape for what was becoming a potentially locked zonal pattern.

Thankyou. Much appreciated.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking at the 500mb zonal wind anomalies for the first half of January reveals the sharp

reversal just after the SSW north of the UK.

Yellow is above average zonal winds,blue is below average.

January 1st-7th..

January 7th-16th..

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm no expert when it come to the strat, but reading the thoughts of some who are experienced, I was led to believe we are projected to see secondary warming thanks to wave breaking - correct me if I have the wrong terminology and that this secondary warming would be the death knell on what should be now a rapidly weakening PV. Is this still likely to occur. Looking at the models they are suggesting the Canadian vortex is likely to become displaced later next week - is this a sign that the PV over Canada weakening or are we just looking at a bit of fragmentation.

GP in his winter thoughts was going to a very cold second half to January with a tanking AO and height rises over Greenland thanks to the PV being smahed to pieces. Perhaps this will still come to fruitition just a little later than anticipated i.e. early Feb, perhaps we will see height rises to our NE once again at the tail end of the month and finally retrogression of these to Greenland thanks to very strong building of heights over the pole - aided all ironically by a piece of the PV being thrown into the atlantic..

Any thoughts..

Link to post
Share on other sites

Some abuse towards the eccentric Piers Corbyn, his forecast can't really be dismissed though this winter thus far. Strat warming hasn't nailed the blocking location though has it, not yet anyway, i think that needs to be 'ironed' out before too much celebration and dismissal is had. Its a decent step forward, but that's all it is at the moment as is any method as no one has got it spot on thus far.

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...