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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013


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We have yet to see a major tanking AO in the model charts yet apart from a few days

ago but have since disappeared. This will surely come and with it a major block in the

Iceland/ Scandinavian region or a little further north judging by the strat profile warmings

down to 100hpa. When and I do think it is when rather than if this happens we will see a

severe cold and wintry outbreak across western Russia, Europe and the UK.

I am thinking February 91 cold or something along these lines.

It would be good to here CH or GP's thoughts on this. This super easterly as mentioned

above has GP made a post on this in one of the threads. Cheers.

P.S. still going for a possible -1c CET middle of JAN to middle of FEB.

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cc, if the downwelling plays out as climatology would suggest, then that scenario is certainly a possibility. It is just so bloomin' difficult to get the right shaped blocked and cold into position to suggest anything other than a possibility. When was the last time we saw that rare -15ºC 850hPa isotherm over the UK? Was it 1991?

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cc, if the downwelling plays out as climatology would suggest, then that scenario is certainly a possibility. It is just so bloomin' difficult to get the right shaped blocked and cold into position to suggest anything other than a possibility. When was the last time we saw that rare -15ºC 850hPa isotherm over the UK? Was it 1991?

1994 saw -14c at least along the south coast, its not clear whether it made it to -15c on the meteociel graphic but it may well have done, i cant remember any other time though.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=6&month=2&hour=0&year=1994&map=5&mode=2

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cc, if the downwelling plays out as climatology would suggest, then that scenario is certainly a possibility. It is just so bloomin' difficult to get the right shaped blocked and cold into position to suggest anything other than a possibility. When was the last time we saw that rare -15ºC 850hPa isotherm over the UK? Was it 1991?

Apart from very briefly making it into Kent in February 2005, February 91 was the last time we saw

widespread -15c air over the UK.

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I don't know what the ECM charts will show tomorrow, but the GFS 10 hPa and 100 hPa charts from the GFS do not suggest any thing other than blocking to our N/NW to me.

post-4523-0-74539000-1358023122_thumb.pn

post-4523-0-80091000-1358023135_thumb.pn

The ECM must be quite different. We will find out tomorrow I guess.

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I don't know what the ECM charts will show tomorrow, but the GFS 10 hPa and 100 hPa charts from the GFS do not suggest any thing other than blocking to our N/NW to me.

post-4523-0-74539000-1358023122_thumb.pn

post-4523-0-80091000-1358023135_thumb.pn

The ECM must be quite different. We will find out tomorrow I guess.

The ecn ens have a weak mean upper ridge iceland/svaalbard at day 10. Massive spread across the atlantic sector with little clustering evident.

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The ecn ens have a weak mean upper ridge iceland/svaalbard at day 10. Massive spread across the atlantic sector with little clustering evident.

Basically the SSW is equivalent of neat vodka poured into the tropospheric output then.......

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The models appear to be sluggish with residual energy from vortex vacating similar position to December period, again lagging in picking up the exit of energy. come on NWP get with the programme !

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anecdotal model watching over the past few days shows a vortex pincer movement towards nw europe from the west and ne. Given the forecast strat picture above, you'd expect the energy from the east to get here first. I doubt the trop models will manage to get that right too easily although that oft trailblazing gem model makes a stab at it this morning.

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My humble little interpretation on it would be that the Canadian part of the vortex will send energy over the coming days eastwards across the atlantic - it is bound to, as a lot of cold air will be spilling out of that part of the arctic and creating a gradient as it hits the eastern seaboard and Greeland area of the atlantic. However, in terms of the tropospheric modelling being balanced and evolving against the progression of ongoing stratospheric effects on the vortex, then the prognosis of the Canadian sector being squeezed out through the ongoing warming programme should translate into a milder atlantic battle losing against the blocking and cold pool over Europe.

In other words, an attempted atlantic milder incursion that might indeed make slight inroads for a very short time - more especially western parts (perhaps?) but then cold air backing westwards and southwards, especially as high pressure is able to retrogress towards Greenland as the pressure from the Canadian vortex is removedPosted Image .

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My humble little interpretation on it would be that the Canadian part of the vortex will send energy over the coming days eastwards across the atlantic - it is bound to, as a lot of cold air will be spilling out of that part of the arctic and creating a gradient as it hits the eastern seaboard and Greeland area of the atlantic. However, in terms of the tropospheric modelling being balanced and evolving against the progression of ongoing stratospheric effects on the vortex, then the prognosis of the Canadian sector being squeezed out through the ongoing warming programme should translate into a milder atlantic battle losing against the blocking and cold pool over Europe.

In other words, an attempted atlantic milder incursion that might indeed make slight inroads for a very short time - more especially western parts (perhaps?) but then cold air backing westwards and southwards, especially as high pressure is able to retrogress towards Greenland as the pressure from the Canadian vortex is removedPosted Image .

Always the optimist Tamara but I for one think you may well be right. I expect the block to hold on and though there may be brief less cold incursions from the West any systems will probably disrupt earlier than currently modelled and with the energy undercutting we should stay on the cold side of the flow with blocking to our North restrengthening and later retrogressing. Finely balanced though.

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Always the optimist Tamara but I for one think you may well be right. I expect the block to hold on and though there may be brief less cold incursions from the West any systems will probably disrupt earlier than currently modelled and with the energy undercutting we should stay on the cold side of the flow with blocking to our North restrengthening and later retrogressing. Finely balanced though.

Not always optimistic wrt to this subject, it depends on the circumstancesPosted Image However the stratospheric modelling and tropospheric implications as so well documented and predicted by the experts on this excellent thread over recent weeks I think give good confidence in a blocked pattern prevailing with just brief pauses in between. This is more than just a one off SSW warming event - it has complexities to it which enhance the analysis on this thread, and also those complexities clearly produce a lot of problems with the NWP!Posted Image
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Not always optimistic wrt to this subject, it depends on the circumstancesPosted Image However the stratospheric modelling and tropospheric implications as so well documented and predicted by the experts on this excellent thread over recent weeks I think give good confidence in a blocked pattern prevailing with just brief pauses in between. This is more than just a one off SSW warming event - it has complexities to it which enhance the analysis on this thread, and also those complexities clearly produce a lot of problems with the NWP!Posted Image

I think that the SSW has a long way to go yet when we see what is forecast to happen in the Canadian Stratosphere. The initial response as Matt and you suggest is that if you cut the stratospheric strings holding the tropospheric vortex in position then it will naturally move and it will only go one way - towards us. However, I think at this point it will also fragment and weaken - perhaps before it reaches our side of the Atlantic. One thing is for sure - America is going to be cold!

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I think that the SSW has a long way to go yet when we see what is forecast to happen in the Canadian Stratosphere. The initial response as Matt and you suggest is that if you cut the stratospheric strings holding the tropospheric vortex in position then it will naturally move and it will only go one way - towards us. However, I think at this point it will also fragment and weaken - perhaps before it reaches our side of the Atlantic. One thing is for sure - America is going to be cold!

Don't hat sum it up!!!

BFTP

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Don't hat sum it up!!!

BFTP

From America here.. We been watching it like a hawk. I have connections to Accuweather and been giving them the best thoughts of this years SSW with the help of you guys. So my gratitude goes out to all of yall. And I can't wait for the arctic blast!

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And I run Accuweather Astronomy Facebook page, I know a lot about the solar events taking place and right now Sunspot 1654 is decaying somewhat. if it does produce a decent flare and CME, it would be a direct hit. As far as its impact to the stratosphere, it would need to get through the other layers first with a southward Bz.

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Sorry to be a pain again, but it would be nice for an update on how the strat is and whether there is any further warming or wave breaking happening.

Many thanks in advance.

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