Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013

[Sean19]

How much longer can the PV last for? Surely it has got to collapse soon.

Edited January 11, 2013 by Sean19

[Gael_Force]

Thanks, C10.

This year has been groundbreaking in one respect - and that is the widespread media attention and recognition of how important the strat and SSW's are as tropospheric drivers. I felt that I have given that presentation many times on here!!!

Although this has long been studied in niche scientific circles, I'm sure it is thanks to you and others who have provided threads such as this to afford the subject a much wider public appreciation. The scientists are now responding to the new raised awareness by increasing the content of their briefings and forecasts..

Good job ALL

[Luisport]

That is some impressive and fast Stratospheric warming http://i50.tinypic.com/1zwgkmd.gif

[Robbie Garrett]

Is that a wave event from the Himalayas??? Get in if so, Mount Everest

That is some impressive and fast Stratospheric warming http://i50.tinypic.com/1zwgkmd.gif

[Su Campu]

Today's 1 hPa analysis shows a huge temperature range from -73 to +39 C!

http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf1a12.gif

[Ice man]

Today's 1 hPa analysis shows a huge temperature range from -73 to +39 C!

http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf1a12.gif

What's it's likely implications this warming?

[Supercell 89]

Must say a massive thanks to all those who have contributed to this thread its been fantastic reading/learning about the stratosphere

I have a couple of question though in regards to this current cold spell. There was a warming event although only a minor one during late December, is it possible that this may be the cause of this cold spell we are seeing unravel now which in turn could overlap nicely with the SSW filtering down? Or is it the first parts of the SSW filtering down or even that we have just been very lucky although i doubt that is the case.

Also sorry if i've overlooked it somewhere, but where is the best place to view stratospheric charts?

Many Thanks

[Chris W]

I was wondering about this earlier - the current sequence of stratospheric warmings will end at some point, yes? If so, given that the strat should generally warm towards the end of winter what are the chances of the vortex reforming, or or staying split/weakened? The gist of my question is how sustainable is SSW-induced cold after the warming ends?

Thanks for this thread, it is very cutting edge to me and a fantastic read.

[Cheese Rice]

Someone posted this on the mod thread so thought i'd stick it in here as well before it gets buried!

Weather - What is sudden stratospheric warming?

Thanks for posting really helpful.

I'm not going to lie until last week I tough SSW meant South, South West and was looking on the charts to see it happening in the south west lol.

[Winter Monsoon]

Must say a massive thanks to all those who have contributed to this thread its been fantastic reading/learning about the stratosphere

I have a couple of question though in regards to this current cold spell. There was a warming event although only a minor one during late December, is it possible that this may be the cause of this cold spell we are seeing unravel now which in turn could overlap nicely with the SSW filtering down? Or is it the first parts of the SSW filtering down or even that we have just been very lucky although i doubt that is the case.

Also sorry if i've overlooked it somewhere, but where is the best place to view stratospheric charts?

Many Thanks

http://wekuw.met.fu-...alert=1&lng=eng

[masheeuk]

Thank you everyone on here. This subject has actually managed to get me to study again as I have become fascinated by the knowledge shown here.

[Cloud 10]

When will the SSW end? Reverse zonal winds at 60N 10 hpa all the way through the ECM

forecast.

Institute of Meteorology: Physics of the Middle Atmosphere -

Perhaps its time for a new acronym? an SSSW (Severe Sudden Stratospheric Warming)

Crazy reverse zonal wind speeds at the top of the stratosphere currently.

[Duane S.]

What's the longest consecutive day-on-day SSW recorded? We've been in technical SSW conditions for 6 days now and if the ECM is to be believed will be for at least a further 10

Although, looking again maybe not, does anyone know if we slipped out by an absolute fraction on the 9th / 10th ?

Not that it makes any difference in the grand scheme of things of course, just interested

Edit: Ah Cloud 10 beat me to it. Yep agree with you, these reversed winds are not only impressive for their longevity but also for at times their strength. Certainly one of the major factors in the models struggling at the moment I would have thought.

Edited January 12, 2013 by s4lancia

[chionomaniac]

What's the longest consecutive day-on-day SSW recorded? We've been in technical SSW conditions for 6 days now and if the ECM is to be believed will be for at least a further 10

Although, looking again maybe not, does anyone know if we slipped out by an absolute fraction on the 9th / 10th ?

Not that it makes any difference in the grand scheme of things of course, just interested

Edit: Ah Cloud 10 beat me to it. Yep agree with you, these reversed winds are not only impressive for their longevity but also for at times their strength. Certainly one of the major factors in the models struggling at the moment I would have thought.

Will have a look through the ECM later but here is the link to the synopsis of the 2009 event.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/50299-stratosphere-temperature-watch/page__st__800#entry1509486

The negative mean zonal winds lasted around a month at 10 hPa that Jan.

[chionomaniac]

Will have a look through the ECM later but here is the link to the synopsis of the 2009 event.

http://forum.netweat...00#entry1509486

The negative mean zonal winds lasted around a month at 10 hPa that Jan.

I have just checked the ECM strat charts and still see little support for the ECM operational. The amount of energy bridging the gap between the vortices looks overestimated in my eyes. We may still see a watered down version but it is unlikely to be as strong as the ECM suggests.

Here is the 100 hPa chart for day 6 from yesterdays ECM - that is a big bridge for the jet stream to cross tropospherically without PV support stratospherically

1st chart shows the proposed jet stream mountain to face and the second chart shows where the pulse of energy squeezes through.

The latest ECM MJO forecasts would support a stronger mid Atlantic ridge too.

[geoffw]

chino do you agree with GP's forecast of a super continental arctic outbreak? does the stratosphere support it and around what dates?

[Glacier Point]

Useful to compare Baldwin's composites for weak vortex events and where we are now:

That's a good match on the initial 'outrider' +ve GPH anomaly and the first main downwell centred on 15th January.

Based on this, second phase to impact around 25th-28th January.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

chino do you agree with GP's forecast of a super continental arctic outbreak? does the stratosphere support it and around what dates?

What's a SUPER continental arctic outbreak forecast then?

BFTP

Edited January 12, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[chionomaniac]

Useful to compare Baldwin's composites for weak vortex events and where we are now:

That's a good match on the initial 'outrider' +ve GPH anomaly and the first main downwell centred on 15th January.

Based on this, second phase to impact around 25th-28th January.

That Baldwin composite is very similar to Cohen's - but Cohen breaks his up into displacement and split events (which you may as well combine with this one). I see any Atlantic attack to be short lived or repelled, followed by another surge in blocking. For a split I worked out from Cohen study that the greatest tropospheric surge of negative mean anomalies will be days 17-23 from the SSW. This would be around 24th-30th Jan so I guess that fits in well with your prediction Stewart.

[chionomaniac]

What's a SUPER continental arctic outbreak forecast then?

BFTP

Probably magnificent polar sourced cold air travelling through Eurasia then hitting the UK? Surely you can work that out Fred?

[Glacier Point]

Thanks Ed, that's useful to get that second view. Wonder how well the NWP will pick this second wave up ? The fast initial downwell really only was captured a few days out. Theoretically as it's a more obvious and gradual progression across the tropopause we should see better modelling although I'm far from convinced with models and strat developments. Although it's a modelled parameter, the degree to which it influences the circulation doesn't seem to be too good (my anecdot) and perhaps borne out by the complete meltdown in usually reliable timeframe modelling.

Edited January 12, 2013 by Glacier Point

[feb1991blizzard]

Useful to compare Baldwin's composites for weak vortex events and where we are now:

That's a good match on the initial 'outrider' +ve GPH anomaly and the first main downwell centred on 15th January.

Based on this, second phase to impact around 25th-28th January.

Correct me if i am wrong but does that chart show a third event in mid feb as well and how likely is this?

[Glacier Point]

Yes it does show a more sustained influence in February, although just where the blocking would be in this scenario would be open to some doubt. Generally, the more 'mature' the blocking signal, the further west the block is, which could well be over Canada during mid Feb. Long way off though.

[chionomaniac]

Thanks Ed, that's useful to get that second view. Wonder how well the NWP will pick this second wave up ? The fast initial downwell really only was captured a few days out. Theoretically as it's a more obvious and gradual progression across the tropopause we should see better modelling although I'm far from convinced with models and strat developments. Although it's a modelled parameter, the degree to which it influences the circulation doesn't seem to be too good (my anecdot) and perhaps borne out by the complete meltdown in usually reliable timeframe modelling.

Being so early in the year it is difficult to get an idea of the downwelling through the cross section of NH strat as usual from the mean zonal anomaly chart.

I suspect in 10 days we will be able to get a clearer picture.

I still can't see the jet stream jumping across the Atlantic without having the stuffing knocked out of it in the meantime though.

[feb1991blizzard]

Yes it does show a more sustained influence in February, although just where the blocking would be in this scenario would be open to some doubt. Generally, the more 'mature' the blocking signal, the further west the block is, which could well be over Canada during mid Feb. Long way off though.

Cheers.