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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013


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Do we have an update on the state of the current warming, what with the chopping & changing in the model thread, it would be nice to have some positive news (if there is any still)

Certainly looks to be a warming of impressive duration if the ECM is to be believed,reverse zonal winds

at 60N 10 hpa for the whole 10 day forecast.

Institute of Meteorology: Physics of the Middle Atmosphere - ECMWF analyses and forecasts: January 08 2013 12 UTC

Institute of Meteorology: Physics of the Middle Atmosphere -

Edited by Cloud 10
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Only just got round to checking the charts today - did the ECM update for anyone - it seems to be still on Jan 8 for me?

Just noticed that,it is still on jan 8th,thought it was being a bit consistent!

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Only just got round to checking the charts today - did the ECM update for anyone - it seems to be still on Jan 8 for me?

Yes, ive been refreshing since 6 0clock this morning and gave up at about 3pm, forgot in all the excitment of the H500 output, still not updated for me, i doubt they will now until tommorow.

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A split at 100hpa! They have updated the site. And another warming in the Canadian sector, a displaced vortex at this level. Reversal of the winds at 10hpa and even 30hpa. Close to zero at 50hpa and even at 70hpa it getting below 5 m/s.

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Edited by sebastiaan1973
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Wave 2 Activity charts are a highlight from Berlin, not everything working yet, the diagram of fluxes isn't on line yet, Wave 2 strength at top of strat consistent with previous forecasts and steady movement down the stratosphere. EP flux seems to have peaked in strat charts on 6th, yet still impact is evident. EP Flux in trop continues with poleward activity.

Vorticity identifying the core areas of daughter vortices highlight the elongation of the Siberian chunk spilled across one half of the hemisphere and the Canadian section winding up, smaller and backing from Greenland, this at shorter range and even better vacation from the Greenland locale by 240 hrs.

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Cross polar flow on the cards in NWP now..the gift that keeps on giving, also liked this at the very end of GFS Hi Res, arctic being fed from the Aleutians, where have we seen that before!

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A split at 100hpa! They have updated the site. And another warming in the Canadian sector, a displaced vortex at this level. Reversal of the winds at 10hpa and even 30hpa. Close to zero at 50hpa and even at 70hpa it getting below 5 m/s.

I would like to see the Canadian sector a little bit further west out of harms way (and it may well do so further down the line) to give us more margin for error as IMO thats whats still creating that little bit of energy in the atlantic at trop-surface level, probably just me being picky but i would like a less stressful route to cold and it to get advected further west!

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I think that I might have seen GP suggesting today that the mid term destination is known but the route has yet to be worked out and I tend to agree with him. The destination is very much northern blocking centered to the north of the UK by around day 10 as suggested by the GFS 100 hpa chart.

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It has been pretty obvious that a pulse of energy crossing the Atlantic is likely to occur around day 5 but as this crosses the area of the vortex split it will weaken dramatically. I really like the ECM tonight and is the kind f solution that I have been waiting for on the models. No - it is not because it is a snow fest (but that helps), no it is more because there is a trend to keep increased heights sustained around Greenland through the whole of the run. This means that when the extra pulse of Atlantic energy comes it is naturally deflected south. Any run that shows the polar vortex modelled in the area of the split from Pacific to Atlantic will be treated with scepticism in my eyes. I still think that the GFS overdoes the PV in this area and will moderate this further in coming runs.

And today, it is the turn of the ECM!

The 00Z tropospheric run is out of sync with previous strat vortices positioning of all the earlier runs. I suspect synoptically it may be an outlier - though this may not be picked up by the de Bilt temperature ensembles. Keep an eye on the clusters later.

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Someone posted this on the mod thread so thought i'd stick it in here as well before it gets buried!

Weather - What is sudden stratospheric warming?

Thanks, C10.

This year has been groundbreaking in one respect - and that is the widespread media attention and recognition of how important the strat and SSW's are as tropospheric drivers. I felt that I have given that presentation many times on here!!!

Edited by chionomaniac
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