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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013


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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    It's gone;

    post-12721-0-88980100-1357540937_thumb.j

    This isn't a bad chart, if I'm reading it right this should help disrupt the western lobe of the PV, currently preventing height rises over Greenland on the NWP;

    post-12721-0-24415700-1357542534_thumb.j

    Isn't there higher up, at 30hpa & above however;

    post-12721-0-06401800-1357542820_thumb.j

    Edited by AWD
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    Steve whilst I agree to a certain extent, more especially with regards to the difficulty in forecasting exact placement of tropospheric synoptics (particularly with regard to the UK in the overall sch

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Lower down awd.

    Signs on the extended gfs supprting shuttlers ecm ens data from yesterday. Vortex reforming but currently better it does so the other side of the pole allowing us to retiain blocking this side.

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    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

    Lower down awd.

    Signs on the extended gfs supprting shuttlers ecm ens data from yesterday. Vortex reforming but currently better it does so the other side of the pole allowing us to retiain blocking this side.

    Right out to FI we do still have the ridging to our north at 100hPa. The end of the run does see the vortex begin to move from Eastern Russia towards Scandinavia though, with the ridge to our north weakening a little. Thankfully it's at 384 hours so no cause for concern if your a cold lover (yet).

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2013010700&var=HGT&lev=100mb&hour=384

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Right out to FI we do still have the ridging to our north at 100hPa. The end of the run does see the vortex begin to move from Eastern Russia towards Scandinavia though, with the ridge to our north weakening a little. Thankfully it's at 384 hours so no cause for concern if your a cold lover (yet).

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2013010700&var=HGT&lev=100mb&hour=384

    I'm looking much higher up than 100hpa. Some incredibly strong wave 2 at the top of the strat in the next few days. Need to get the propogation sorted and we'll be laughing. Ep flux still not reading the script.

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    Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

    thanks Cloud.

    Updated chart already posted by AWD but what the heck!

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedford, 30m asl
  • Location: Bedford, 30m asl

    I have to say that as good as this looks:

    Posted Image

    That ridge has got noticeably weaker in the past couple of days, and the W Greenland vortex brought closer to Greenland than previously too, with the GFS not dissimilar:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2013010700&var=HGT&lev=100mb&hour=240

    The main problem that I can see at the moment is we just don't seem to be getting a full downwelling of the strongest wave activity:

    Posted Image

    Seems to hit a bit of a brick wall at 100mb, with just weak activity making it all the way down to 100mb.

    The only thing I can take a guess at as to whats causing this is the unfavourable EP flux:

    Posted Image

    Given current strat forecasts one would back away from the idea of too much in the way of Greenland height rises, and more akin to something like an Icelandic-Scandinavian height rise (suggested quite broadly this morning in operational NWP), which of course can still deliver very impressive cold to our shores.

    The thing to bear in mind, of course, with all of this is its all still a forecast, but this at least explains current tropospheric modelling. I should imagine that stratospheric forecasting will be just as prone to (albeit more minor) swings as its tropospheric cousin at present

    SK

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    I have to say that as good as this looks:

    Posted Image

    That ridge has got noticeably weaker in the past couple of days, and the W Greenland vortex brought closer to Greenland than previously too, with the GFS not dissimilar:

    http://www.instantwe...=100mb&hour=240

    The main problem that I can see at the moment is we just don't seem to be getting a full downwelling of the strongest wave activity:

    Posted Image

    Seems to hit a bit of a brick wall at 100mb, with just weak activity making it all the way down to 100mb.

    The only thing I can take a guess at as to whats causing this is the unfavourable EP flux:

    Posted Image

    Given current strat forecasts one would back away from the idea of too much in the way of Greenland height rises, and more akin to something like an Icelandic-Scandinavian height rise (suggested quite broadly this morning in operational NWP), which of course can still deliver very impressive cold to our shores.

    The thing to bear in mind, of course, with all of this is its all still a forecast, but this at least explains current tropospheric modelling. I should imagine that stratospheric forecasting will be just as prone to (albeit more minor) swings as its tropospheric cousin at present

    SK

    I would disagree with the bolded bit SK - that is pretty good and strong wave 2 propagation - very impressive. Also I still think southern Greenland height rises likely.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedford, 30m asl
  • Location: Bedford, 30m asl

    I would disagree with the bolded bit SK - that is pretty good and strong wave 2 propagation - very impressive. Also I still think southern Greenland height rises likely.

    You've helped put my mind to rest there then my friend!

    SK

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    Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Forecaster Centaurea Weather
  • Location: Worcestershire

    anyone else picking up on GFS long range trend, very sharp movement of the residual vortex from Canada towards Sberia ? The whe stratosphere seeming to move at once. Once again, parallels with many a sharp outbreak of very cold episodes, the most graphic I can think of showing this type of evolution was 1987.

    The timing of this very interesting, about the same time our downwelling from first warming (and 10 day from second warming) is due to hit the lower levels.

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    anyone else picking up on GFS long range trend, very sharp movement of the residual vortex from Canada towards Sberia ? The whe stratosphere seeming to move at once. Once again, parallels with many a sharp outbreak of very cold episodes, the most graphic I can think of showing this type of evolution was 1987.

    The timing of this very interesting, about the same time our downwelling from first warming (and 10 day from second warming) is due to hit the lower levels.

    i must admit theres certainly a fast pace about how this jigsaw is coming together and i do believe that this was the kind of setup in the 09/10 winter this came about fairly quick to the jigsaw looks very impressive.

    what i would like to see though is a more slower pace in the alantic and a much more southerly track of the jet.

    oh and a nice spotless sun Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    anyone else picking up on GFS long range trend, very sharp movement of the residual vortex from Canada towards Sberia ? The whe stratosphere seeming to move at once. Once again, parallels with many a sharp outbreak of very cold episodes, the most graphic I can think of showing this type of evolution was 1987.

    The timing of this very interesting, about the same time our downwelling from first warming (and 10 day from second warming) is due to hit the lower levels.

    not sure its clear cut stewart as the week 2 strat height charts are subject to some changes. however, its a trend on the recent runs. the worry i have is that any quick movement of the vortex will leave energy behind which, without a canadian vortex to keep it contained, will likely seep out into the atlantic and any vortex movements back and forth between canada and siberia that we have seen this winter thus far have all been accompanied by an uptick in atlantic mobility. without a greeny/n atlantic block in place, that leaves us struggling to sustain cold. of course, this assumes that acivity at 10hpa will be replicated lower down.

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    anyone else picking up on GFS long range trend, very sharp movement of the residual vortex from Canada towards Sberia ? The whe stratosphere seeming to move at once. Once again, parallels with many a sharp outbreak of very cold episodes, the most graphic I can think of showing this type of evolution was 1987.

    The timing of this very interesting, about the same time our downwelling from first warming (and 10 day from second warming) is due to hit the lower levels.

    and why would that move of the vortex be good for us unlike the move in December?

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    I just discovered this research by the UKMO, its all to do with the impact of stratospheric observations improving NWP prediction. It also gives a list of all global models , their resolutions and how far up they go in the atmosphere.

    http://ee.nmt.edu/~sparc-da/sparcpresentations/DJackson_pres.pdf

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    Posted
  • Location: Bude
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather...heavy snow and heat waves
  • Location: Bude

    Just a quick question for anyone who has information. Will the sudden rise in the suns activity in the last couple of days have any impact on the SSW effects and our weather??? just looking on spaceweather.com the suns dic is covered in sunspots. somthing we haven't seen in a while, so a bit concerned this will have an impact on the weather we will recieve in the next couple of weeks...cheers

    hahahaha!!!!

    *DISC

    Edited by John Badrick
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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

    Just a quick question for anyone who has information. Will the sudden rise in the suns activity in the last couple of days have any impact on the SSW effects and our weather??? just looking on spaceweather.com the suns dic is covered in sunspots. somthing we haven't seen in a while, so a bit concerned this will have an impact on the weather we will recieve in the next couple of weeks...cheers

    Sounds like a quick visit to the clinic may be needed! Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    I just discovered this research by the UKMO, its all to do with the impact of stratospheric observations improving NWP prediction. It also gives a list of all global models , their resolutions and how far up they go in the atmosphere.

    http://ee.nmt.edu/~s...ackson_pres.pdf

    Excellent find which calls the current ecm ens into question with a ceiling of 5hpa. can anyone find out the top of the gefs model ????

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Excellent find which calls the current ecm ens into question with a ceiling of 5hpa. can anyone find out the top of the gefs model ????

    This seems to be top secret! I've looked on loads of links and can't find mention of the top level.

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    Posted
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL

    Its not really a top secret, but you do have to dig into it, and pull some resources to find it. Posted Image

    After the last upgrade in Feb. 2012, GEFS now has T254 spectral resolution from 0h-192h, which is around 55km, and T190 resolution (around 70km) from 192h-384h. The vertical levels were increased from 28 to 42 levels. So the current GEFS vertical top is at or around 2hpa (at or around, because it is a sigma pressure system). You can see GEFS vertical levels represented in height on the graphic below. The old GEFS before this upgrade, had 28 vertical levels with top at 10hpa.

    Posted Image

    I hope I answered your question, BA. Posted Image

    Edited by Recretos
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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    It just keeps on rising;

    post-12721-0-57670000-1357580698_thumb.j

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    @John Badrick, There hasn't been any increase in activity on the sun. The sun as of today is still at low level activity as it has been in quite some time. There are sunspots visible on the disc but non of them are magnetically complex at this time. Check SolarHam website for reliable up to date information on solar activity:

    www.solarham.net

    The current activity is still in a nose dive as can be seen in the graph updated by Nasa this week. They have been forced to reduce their cycle count prediction after increasing it to 72 a few months back:

    http://solarscience....v/predict.shtml

    Edited by maw368
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    Posted
  • Location: Liverpool/Leeds
  • Location: Liverpool/Leeds

    Does anyone know of temperature observation graphs for lower down in the stratosphere and maybe upper troposphere. CPC shows the temperature down to 70mb , but it would be good to have 100, 200, 500 etc.

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    Does anyone know of temperature observation graphs for lower down in the stratosphere and maybe upper troposphere. CPC shows the temperature down to 70mb , but it would be good to have 100, 200, 500 etc.

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/

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