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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013


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It's gone;

post-12721-0-88980100-1357540937_thumb.j

This isn't a bad chart, if I'm reading it right this should help disrupt the western lobe of the PV, currently preventing height rises over Greenland on the NWP;

post-12721-0-24415700-1357542534_thumb.j

Isn't there higher up, at 30hpa & above however;

post-12721-0-06401800-1357542820_thumb.j

Edited by AWD
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Lower down awd.

Signs on the extended gfs supprting shuttlers ecm ens data from yesterday. Vortex reforming but currently better it does so the other side of the pole allowing us to retiain blocking this side.

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Lower down awd.

Signs on the extended gfs supprting shuttlers ecm ens data from yesterday. Vortex reforming but currently better it does so the other side of the pole allowing us to retiain blocking this side.

Right out to FI we do still have the ridging to our north at 100hPa. The end of the run does see the vortex begin to move from Eastern Russia towards Scandinavia though, with the ridge to our north weakening a little. Thankfully it's at 384 hours so no cause for concern if your a cold lover (yet).

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2013010700&var=HGT&lev=100mb&hour=384

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Right out to FI we do still have the ridging to our north at 100hPa. The end of the run does see the vortex begin to move from Eastern Russia towards Scandinavia though, with the ridge to our north weakening a little. Thankfully it's at 384 hours so no cause for concern if your a cold lover (yet).

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2013010700&var=HGT&lev=100mb&hour=384

I'm looking much higher up than 100hpa. Some incredibly strong wave 2 at the top of the strat in the next few days. Need to get the propogation sorted and we'll be laughing. Ep flux still not reading the script.

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I have to say that as good as this looks:

Posted Image

That ridge has got noticeably weaker in the past couple of days, and the W Greenland vortex brought closer to Greenland than previously too, with the GFS not dissimilar:

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2013010700&var=HGT&lev=100mb&hour=240

The main problem that I can see at the moment is we just don't seem to be getting a full downwelling of the strongest wave activity:

Posted Image

Seems to hit a bit of a brick wall at 100mb, with just weak activity making it all the way down to 100mb.

The only thing I can take a guess at as to whats causing this is the unfavourable EP flux:

Posted Image

Given current strat forecasts one would back away from the idea of too much in the way of Greenland height rises, and more akin to something like an Icelandic-Scandinavian height rise (suggested quite broadly this morning in operational NWP), which of course can still deliver very impressive cold to our shores.

The thing to bear in mind, of course, with all of this is its all still a forecast, but this at least explains current tropospheric modelling. I should imagine that stratospheric forecasting will be just as prone to (albeit more minor) swings as its tropospheric cousin at present

SK

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I have to say that as good as this looks:

Posted Image

That ridge has got noticeably weaker in the past couple of days, and the W Greenland vortex brought closer to Greenland than previously too, with the GFS not dissimilar:

http://www.instantwe...=100mb&hour=240

The main problem that I can see at the moment is we just don't seem to be getting a full downwelling of the strongest wave activity:

Posted Image

Seems to hit a bit of a brick wall at 100mb, with just weak activity making it all the way down to 100mb.

The only thing I can take a guess at as to whats causing this is the unfavourable EP flux:

Posted Image

Given current strat forecasts one would back away from the idea of too much in the way of Greenland height rises, and more akin to something like an Icelandic-Scandinavian height rise (suggested quite broadly this morning in operational NWP), which of course can still deliver very impressive cold to our shores.

The thing to bear in mind, of course, with all of this is its all still a forecast, but this at least explains current tropospheric modelling. I should imagine that stratospheric forecasting will be just as prone to (albeit more minor) swings as its tropospheric cousin at present

SK

I would disagree with the bolded bit SK - that is pretty good and strong wave 2 propagation - very impressive. Also I still think southern Greenland height rises likely.

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I would disagree with the bolded bit SK - that is pretty good and strong wave 2 propagation - very impressive. Also I still think southern Greenland height rises likely.

You've helped put my mind to rest there then my friend!

SK

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anyone else picking up on GFS long range trend, very sharp movement of the residual vortex from Canada towards Sberia ? The whe stratosphere seeming to move at once. Once again, parallels with many a sharp outbreak of very cold episodes, the most graphic I can think of showing this type of evolution was 1987.

The timing of this very interesting, about the same time our downwelling from first warming (and 10 day from second warming) is due to hit the lower levels.

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anyone else picking up on GFS long range trend, very sharp movement of the residual vortex from Canada towards Sberia ? The whe stratosphere seeming to move at once. Once again, parallels with many a sharp outbreak of very cold episodes, the most graphic I can think of showing this type of evolution was 1987.

The timing of this very interesting, about the same time our downwelling from first warming (and 10 day from second warming) is due to hit the lower levels.

i must admit theres certainly a fast pace about how this jigsaw is coming together and i do believe that this was the kind of setup in the 09/10 winter this came about fairly quick to the jigsaw looks very impressive.

what i would like to see though is a more slower pace in the alantic and a much more southerly track of the jet.

oh and a nice spotless sun Posted Image

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anyone else picking up on GFS long range trend, very sharp movement of the residual vortex from Canada towards Sberia ? The whe stratosphere seeming to move at once. Once again, parallels with many a sharp outbreak of very cold episodes, the most graphic I can think of showing this type of evolution was 1987.

The timing of this very interesting, about the same time our downwelling from first warming (and 10 day from second warming) is due to hit the lower levels.

not sure its clear cut stewart as the week 2 strat height charts are subject to some changes. however, its a trend on the recent runs. the worry i have is that any quick movement of the vortex will leave energy behind which, without a canadian vortex to keep it contained, will likely seep out into the atlantic and any vortex movements back and forth between canada and siberia that we have seen this winter thus far have all been accompanied by an uptick in atlantic mobility. without a greeny/n atlantic block in place, that leaves us struggling to sustain cold. of course, this assumes that acivity at 10hpa will be replicated lower down.

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anyone else picking up on GFS long range trend, very sharp movement of the residual vortex from Canada towards Sberia ? The whe stratosphere seeming to move at once. Once again, parallels with many a sharp outbreak of very cold episodes, the most graphic I can think of showing this type of evolution was 1987.

The timing of this very interesting, about the same time our downwelling from first warming (and 10 day from second warming) is due to hit the lower levels.

and why would that move of the vortex be good for us unlike the move in December?

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Just a quick question for anyone who has information. Will the sudden rise in the suns activity in the last couple of days have any impact on the SSW effects and our weather??? just looking on spaceweather.com the suns dic is covered in sunspots. somthing we haven't seen in a while, so a bit concerned this will have an impact on the weather we will recieve in the next couple of weeks...cheers

hahahaha!!!!

*DISC

Edited by John Badrick
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Just a quick question for anyone who has information. Will the sudden rise in the suns activity in the last couple of days have any impact on the SSW effects and our weather??? just looking on spaceweather.com the suns dic is covered in sunspots. somthing we haven't seen in a while, so a bit concerned this will have an impact on the weather we will recieve in the next couple of weeks...cheers

Sounds like a quick visit to the clinic may be needed! Posted Image

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I just discovered this research by the UKMO, its all to do with the impact of stratospheric observations improving NWP prediction. It also gives a list of all global models , their resolutions and how far up they go in the atmosphere.

http://ee.nmt.edu/~s...ackson_pres.pdf

Excellent find which calls the current ecm ens into question with a ceiling of 5hpa. can anyone find out the top of the gefs model ????

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Excellent find which calls the current ecm ens into question with a ceiling of 5hpa. can anyone find out the top of the gefs model ????

This seems to be top secret! I've looked on loads of links and can't find mention of the top level.

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Its not really a top secret, but you do have to dig into it, and pull some resources to find it. Posted Image

After the last upgrade in Feb. 2012, GEFS now has T254 spectral resolution from 0h-192h, which is around 55km, and T190 resolution (around 70km) from 192h-384h. The vertical levels were increased from 28 to 42 levels. So the current GEFS vertical top is at or around 2hpa (at or around, because it is a sigma pressure system). You can see GEFS vertical levels represented in height on the graphic below. The old GEFS before this upgrade, had 28 vertical levels with top at 10hpa.

Posted Image

I hope I answered your question, BA. Posted Image

Edited by Recretos
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@John Badrick, There hasn't been any increase in activity on the sun. The sun as of today is still at low level activity as it has been in quite some time. There are sunspots visible on the disc but non of them are magnetically complex at this time. Check SolarHam website for reliable up to date information on solar activity:

www.solarham.net

The current activity is still in a nose dive as can be seen in the graph updated by Nasa this week. They have been forced to reduce their cycle count prediction after increasing it to 72 a few months back:

http://solarscience....v/predict.shtml

Edited by maw368
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