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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013


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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

    Would a second SSW have a much quicker lag response due to the after effects of the first SSW, or are there no hard and fast rules and each one behaves slightly different?

    Each one behaves slightly different, as Bluearmy has explained you cannot have another SSW during a SSW but further warmings in the strat can happen, these warmings after take time like the initial warming to filter down the strat and hit the troposphere, where we are then affected. Edited by Panayiotis
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    Steve whilst I agree to a certain extent, more especially with regards to the difficulty in forecasting exact placement of tropospheric synoptics (particularly with regard to the UK in the overall sch

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWY WINTERS AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT

    so chio we r at t0 for the current forecast and what's the status of the strat mate? Thx

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    Posted
  • Location: Letchworth Garden City
  • Location: Letchworth Garden City

    Barely awake right now, but really glad I finally finished the post and got all of this of my chest. Just couldn't find enough time earlier. Posted Image

    Best regards.

    Thank you for the time and effort put into this Recretos. A most informative post and very much appreciated.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    Some wonderful ECM strat charts this morning. Main theme is that the split vortices move away from our side of the hemisphere leaving a ridge from trop to top of strat. Great viewing.

    http://wekuw.met.fu-...st=f240&lng=eng

    Another great post Recretos

    Edited by chionomaniac
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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands

    Thanks Recretos. How may cans of beer did you take to write it?Posted Image

    Chio, about those 100hpa, I suppose that's a clear signal for high pressure to development in northern Europe? What's relation between this level and lower in the atmosphere?

    Edited by sebastiaan1973
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    Posted
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset

    BIG DAY FOR ED. WHATEVER THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE SSW, TODAY IS THE REWARD FOR ALL THE EFFORT PUT IN.

    Yes well done to all, always a pleasure to read this thread, keep up the good work Posted Image
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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    Sent 10 December 2012 - 22:55

    Am going to have a party when this SSW happens..

    Well I guess it is now Party Time

    Wave 2 getting stronger as T+0 approaches.

    post-7292-0-54866200-1357461545_thumb.gi

    Bosh.

    post-7292-0-83690000-1357461663_thumb.gi

    Heat flux gets a reload over the next 10 days,awesome charts.

    http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/eczm.php?alert=1&forecast=all&var=vt&lng=eng

    Model watching is going to be beyond rollercoaster from here..

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    Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

    And we have lift off!

    Also just want to echo the sentiments of a few other posters and say thanks to ALL who have

    made this thread so fascinating and enjoyable to read.Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

    take it the grey line is the average?

    Yep,i'll post the updated charts over the next few days as it will really show how "sudden" a SSW is.

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    The ECM Ens for 240-360h declines the cross-polar ridging, allowing the more intense PV over Canada to gradually edge back towards the pole, though by 360h (21st) it's not quite pole-centric. This would seem more likely going into the last week of the month. The split part of the PV over Siberia gradually loses its identity. Polar temperatures at say 10mb are back below seasonal norm in this period, with no evidence of any further upper strat warmings.

    Just want to add my congrats to all involved in this superb, informative thread....

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    Posted
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL

    Thank you Shuttler for your updates on the ECM EPS. :)

    Just one question: Do you see only the ensemble means, or can you see individual perturbations, or plotted all at once?

    The deviation is really increasing from 240h on, most of the time, so it would be interesting to see individual members. Also, given the fact that the ceiling for ECM ensembles is at 5mb (can't understand why), maybe, just maybe that is why it is losing its "momentum" regarding the more intense dynamics, and trying to reform the vortex.

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    PV will take some time to recover

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    Posted
  • Location: Shaftesbury, Dorset 300m asl
  • Weather Preferences: all weather types!
  • Location: Shaftesbury, Dorset 300m asl

    so we have shutter saying it will start to regroup in the next few weeks and snowm4n saying its going to take some time to recover? sometimes this thread can be useful other times confusing.

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    so we have shutter saying it will start to regroup in the next few weeks and snowm4n saying its going to take some time to recover? sometimes this thread can be useful other times confusing.

    Shows the difference between the EC & GFS Strat forecasts in the long term.

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    so we have shutter saying it will start to regroup in the next few weeks and snowm4n saying its going to take some time to recover? sometimes this thread can be useful other times confusing.

    It will recover no doubt about it but that warming will slow it down OR prevent it from forming over Greenland.

    Its FI but it has been showing just in different places.

    Shows the difference between the EC & GFS Strat forecasts in the long term.

    Exactly, ECM wants a rebuild of the PV and shows no warming and the GFS creates smaller warming after the initial SSW.

    Edited by SN0WM4N
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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands

    Well, if you take in account the following. I guess the EC ENS has no real clue of the stratosphere. Just up to 5hpa. The EC oper till 0.01hpa.

    ECMWF data are produced on model levels (hybrid pressure-sigma coordinates) and at the surface. ECMWF data are also interpolated to pressure levels and some datasets include data on isentropic levels and the PV=2PVU surface.

    The atmosphere is divided into various numbers of levels depending on the application. ERA-40 and ERA-Interim use 60 levels with the model top at 0.1 hPa, The ensemble prediction system uses 62 levels with the top at 5 hPa and the high-resolution operational data assimilation and forecasting system uses 91 levels with the model top at 0.01 hPa. These so called "sigma-levels", which follow the earth's surface in the lower- and mid-troposphere, are used as vertical coordinates but are surfaces of constant pressure in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere. A smooth transition between these types of levels is ensured ( Untch et al, 1999). The vertical resolution (measured in geometric height) is highest in the planetary boundary layer and lowest in the stratosphere and lower mesosphere.

    http://www.ecmwf.int/products/data/archive/data_faq.html

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