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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013


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Good morning. First, the very best wishes to you all. Have a healthy 2013. May the forze be with you.

'Our' SSW is still forecasted for the 6th of Januar. So it's getting closer.

At day 10, we see after the displacement a split. So that's according to 'plan' as well.

post-10577-0-86617200-1357028023_thumb.g

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Ecm and gfs still painting a different picture re heights over this side of the NH in the upper strat. ecm has the split vortex close to our east/southeast. Gfs ridging close to our north/northwest.

My other question relates to the ecm ens. If the top pf the model is 5hpa, currently we have large wave 1 energy coming into the area above 5hpa. there is still an area of wave 1 activity sitting in the 5 to 20 hpa locale. If the initialisation data cannot include the lager wave 1 energy which is soon to strongly boost the area below 5 hpa, how reliable can the ecm ens model the upper strat? That would indicate that the model may well underestimate the displacement and reverse flow likely within the next week to ten days. How reliable can the tool be re any possible quick wave response into the trop. Am i getting this completely wrong? if not, we may see a rather different weighting in the extended ens within a few days as the model recognises this new influx of wave energy.

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Very encouraged by the ECMWF this morning for wave 2:

Posted Image

Ideally we would want it just a little stronger than that but even so theres the vortex split potential following displacement, and unlike the wave 1 activity, it looks likely to downwell a fair way towards the troposphere too.

SK

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As already been discussed could we be potentially looking more a 'lag effect' in this instance as the GFS doesn't seem to be making much of it trop wise over it's most recent runs or is this just a matter of the output 'waxing and waning' as GP puts it?

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If i am reading these charts right, is the EP flux trending against us again (towards the end of the forecast period) and is this anything to worry about yet regarding the potential for decent probagation.

Posted Image

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If i am reading these charts right, is the EP flux trending against us again (towards the end of the forecast period) and is this anything to worry about yet regarding the potential for decent probagation.

Posted Image

It's looking that way, but looking at that graph it seems the same thing happened early in December before the minor warming changed it towards the Pole. At least the strength of it away from the Pole is set to decrease rapidly.

Edited by Snowy Liverpool
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I think without a good mountain torque event or a MJO wave induced response(some type of

tropospheric forcing) the models are unsure how to handle the blocking or should I say

stratosphere warming.

Or it could be that until the warming is properly underway over the Arctic stratosphere the

models will continue to flop around unsure which is the correct signal to pick up.

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Happy New Year Everyone . I have a question which is - in relation to November/December 2010 Was the snow and freezing temperatures as a result of an SSW event

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The previous trend at 100mb for the downwelling of the secondary warming to prevent the attempted rejoining of the two vortices continues with the 12z, and once again this sends the Greenland 100mb vortex into Canada.

This would suggest to me that we see high pressure across the pole heading south over time and ending up between Greenland/Svalbard.

Whether these push far enough south to push the remaining fragments of the Atlantic energy into the med we will have to wait and see, but pretty perfectly times secondary warming has, thus far, been incredibly consistently modelled, and I am very much hoping this trend down to 100mb continues.

For monitoring purposes, the start date for the 100mb vortex fragment to start migrating westwards away from Greenland is 15th January.

SK

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No real surprise to see the best ozone forecasts for the season, both total and for 40hPa.

post-4523-0-73545600-1357073125_thumb.gi

post-4523-0-89466500-1357073139_thumb.gi

Initially centered over Alaska - but look at that wisp dragged in over east Greenland.

Edited by chionomaniac
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I am going to predict an early New Year displacement SSW, now on the back of what I have seen so far. One that not only displaces the vortex, but then follows the complete disintergration of the vortex. Around the first 10 days in January.

Spot on forecast there Posted Image

Edited by Tim Banyard
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Few obervartions - still no agreement post day 8 with the split vortice locations ecm/gfs. No sign of a second warming near ne canada/greenland on ecm. Crazy place for our part of the split vortex to end up at 1hpa on ecm day 10 (biscay)

Fnally, the uptick in zonal flow right through the strat above 60N in the next few days is noticeable and the sudden drop off to negative that follows may well be posing the trop modelling some issues. I do recall stewart mentionng something in nov about a surge of zonal flow just before a SSW.

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The secondary warming is actually just about there on the ECM, just a little delayed compared to the GFS:

http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ec.php?alert=1&level=10&forecast=all&lng=eng

You can see it moving NE up the eastern seaboard towards days 8/9/10, though certainly not as impressive as GFS just yet (though in fairness, the main intensity of the warming shown on the GFS occurs once the warming reaches Hudson Bay)

Wave 2 still there today though:

http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwfzm_ha2_f240.gif

Still strengthening even at day 10.

Fluxes looking slight better today too - still nothing to write home about but certainly a step in the right direction (as suggested by Ed yesterday)

SK

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Apologies if this has been covered already, but I'm keen to know if whats happening in the Stratosphere is taken into account with the model output runs? I was of the understanding that the information received from all the data points provide an accurate current situation and this info is fed into the computer and the programm run to provide a likely outcome over the following days ....Even if the Stratosphere data is inputted then surely the limited historical data must make the model outputs very volatile to say the least?

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Apologies if this has been covered already, but I'm keen to know if whats happening in the Stratosphere is taken into account with the model output runs? I was of the understanding that the information received from all the data points provide an accurate current situation and this info is fed into the computer and the programm run to provide a likely outcome over the following days ....Even if the Stratosphere data is inputted then surely the limited historical data must make the model outputs very volatile to say the least?

kthom, the op model suite covers the trop and strat together. the whole lot runs as one entire 3D atmospheric picture. the horizontal layers in the model are more spread out in the strat compared to the trop. i would say that a complex situation as is soon to be occuring high above our heads is bound to cause issues though.

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