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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013


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Strong reversal of zonal winds at 240 in the upper strat- according to the EC-DWD output; it is truly notable and something that would (with time and propagation), tear apart the tropospheric vortex; the EC warming continues to be somewhat less pronounced than the GFS- roughly 10-15c so.. this may not entirely be important, but is notable at such a time range-

of note has to be the GFS 384 solution, at 10hpa, lowest temp is roughly -65c, which is quite something.. the dynamics of the situation will flow through slowly after the original displacement, but the dominant vortex is likely to be completely mauled- the solution of squeezing in a more amplified stratospheric polar high in it's place over the arctic around d9/d10 in current modelling suggests that, stratospherically at first, the lingering attempts of cold energy will be separated between the Canadian and Siberian sectors- though with such little significance in the remnants, and a focus towards an Aleutian low (as another warming in the Canadian sector occurs) at d15 onwards on the latest GFS suites, I would be highly surprised if the tropospheric response (generally highlighted by the upcoming nwp) isn't reactionary and provides a progressive picture of Greenland heights

MJO wise.. the GFS has slowly caught on with UKMO forecasts, movement in phases 5 and 6 for now is not terribly bad, and a less amplified signal is of course very much welcome

January represents a marked change in the hemispheric pattern, and now the balloon has burst, it looks like we're about to set it on fire..

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Interesting to note the tropospheric polar vortex at d16 shifts from Siberia into Sapporo!

Posted Image

Insane conditions over northern Japan !

Please can you tell any information about Europe north and south? Thank you so much!
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**Below info Updated at 2:30 PM**

The new 12z GFS forecast shows the polar vortex greatly displaced. Instead of being in the Arctic, it's all the way down in Japan! It appears another piece of the vortex may be off the coast of Europe. High pressure trapping the vortices south would theoretically deliver yet another crushing blow to the polar vortex, which I don't know will be able to recover fully in Jan-Feb.

Andrew http://theweathercentre.blogspot.de/2012/12/polar-vortex-close-to-collapse.html

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More great posts in this thread today - its the thread to be reading at the moment. Lots of positives for those hoping for a pattern change to much colder conditions.

Another positive more generally in this respect is the fact that traditionally the polar vortex weakens substantially as we move through January, even without a SSW.. February is notorious for being a rather blocked month with a weak atlantic.. not always, but often delivers a cold settled spell - think last year.

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Another perfectly positioned split of the displaced vortex on the latest GFS run.

[attachment=150587:viewimage-3.png

Wave 1 activity increases and then subsides followed by an increase in wave 2 activity - a perfect recipe for favourable vortex positioning. We are now seeing this scenario reeled in by the GFS - but what of the ECM? Well, we won't know for a few days, but the wave 2 activity forecasts by day 10 are promising.

And even at 100mb:

Posted Image

Very visible ridge to our west, with one of the remaining vortices of the PV to our near east. Very encouraging, and whilst thats still obviously FI, even at day 10:

Posted Image

The potential ridging shown by the 18z at the surface very much reflected throughout the stratosphere.

This was also evident on the 12z:

Posted Image

SK

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And even at 100mb:

Posted Image

Very visible ridge to our west, with one of the remaining vortices of the PV to our near east. Very encouraging, and whilst thats still obviously FI, even at day 10:

Posted Image

The potential ridging shown by the 18z at the surface very much reflected throughout the stratosphere.

This was also evident on the 12z:

Posted Image

SK

Yes solid trends and following on from the 12z GFS.

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And even at 100mb:

Posted Image

Very visible ridge to our west, with one of the remaining vortices of the PV to our near east. Very encouraging, and whilst thats still obviously FI, even at day 10:

Posted Image

The potential ridging shown by the 18z at the surface very much reflected throughout the stratosphere.

This was also evident on the 12z:

Posted Image

SK

It is FI but higher up the strat, from the first signs of warming, the charts have verified more or less pretty well. And it is these that I am taking the lead from, not the tropospheric swings. The modeling of that split is so important - I couldn't really model it any better from day 10 than the GFS is doing. We really need to see the ECM edge the same way - it is starting showing the split but we need to see the secondary warming to know that each daughter vortex will weaken further. A long way to go and a long time to have to sit on my hands!

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The forecast for zonal negative winds are really strengthening.

6th -1ms

7th -4

8th -11

9th -13

http://maidenerleghweather.com/strat.php

With activity moving down the 500mb and 850mb

http://meteociel.com/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=51.45&lon=-0.97

And down to 2m

http://meteociel.com/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=&y=&run=0&lat=51.45&lon=-0.97&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

Edited by muppet77
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Still a contrast in vortex placement on ecm wrt to gfs. Ecm's canada segment is very much eastern canada as opposed to gfs which is hudsons. The russian segement looking similar at 30hpa but much closer to se scandi at 10hpa on ecm. Perversly, the vortex split is better at 30hpa on ecm but worse at 10hpa. There are still matters to be sorted relative to the initial warming ecm's appetite to place the canadian segment closer the atlantic poses obvious issues for us although if we get a ridge nearer iceland than greenland to deflect the jet south, that might not be so bad

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Another interesting thing I read,a sharp reversal of zonal winds at the 10hPa level doesn't guarantee a strong response from the troposphere.

The research suggested its lower in the stratosphere that has more impact on the troposphere.

This would be as expected when you remember that only 1% of the mass of atmosphere lies above 10hPa. Even reversed zonal flow down to 100hPa still has 90% of the atmosphere beneath it to influence.

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The forecast for zonal negative winds are really strengthening.

6th -1ms

7th -4

8th -11

9th -13

http://maidenerleghw...r.com/strat.php

With activity moving down the 500mb and 850mb

http://meteociel.com...51.45&lon=-0.97

And down to 2m

http://meteociel.com...=0&type=3&ext=1

Sorry, don't think there is any particular link to the strat in those graphs - the temperatures for that location are all above average for the near future and are cooling towards normal later on as NWP tend to.

Edited by Interitus
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Sorry, don't think there is any particular link to the strat in those graphs - the temperatures for that location are all above average for the near future and are cooling towards normal later on as NWP tend to.

I was wondering if the ssw was influencing the fall in temps at 500, 850 an 2m. Looks like it may be.

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GFS 06z forecasts for the polar high to emerge over Greenland at 30hpa for d15, which is very encouraging-

In all forecasted regions of the strat, the secondary warming (that at 30hpa stems from a polar high 'push' in the arctic ocean area) will take the vortex energy from NE Canada to Alaska- transporting most cold energy and also weakening the vortex substantially (even at 100hpa)- as shown by the d16 forecast

The response would be for a gradual shift towards heights to the north (Iceland-Greenland-Svalbard), with weakening energy moving progressively west in the medium term in Canada. The lingering vortex at 100hpa then transports from Siberia into Scandinavia and western Russia by d14- and so the likely shift to MJO phase 7 (from 6-- watch EC 240 this morning) and the likelyhood of retrogressive motion in our locale (as touted by the GFS) towards Greenland

Posted Image

Tropospheric response is pretty sharp on the ball- I would say the likelyhood of colder conditions setting into much of western and northern Europe increases significantly from around the 12th of January

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GFS 06z forecasts for the polar high to emerge over Greenland at 30hpa for d15, which is very encouraging-

In all forecasted regions of the strat, the secondary warming (that at 30hpa stems from a polar high 'push' in the arctic ocean area) will take the vortex energy from NE Canada to Alaska- transporting most cold energy and also weakening the vortex substantially (even at 100hpa)- as shown by the d16 forecast

The response would be for a gradual shift towards heights to the north (Iceland-Greenland-Svalbard), with weakening energy moving progressively west in the medium term in Canada. The lingering vortex at 100hpa then transports from Siberia into Scandinavia and western Russia by d14- and so the likely shift to MJO phase 7 (from 6-- watch EC 240 this morning) and the likelyhood of retrogressive motion in our locale (as touted by the GFS) towards Greenland

Posted Image

Tropospheric response is pretty sharp on the ball- I would say the likelyhood of colder conditions setting into much of western and northern Europe increases significantly from around the 12th of January

Please can you tell me something about situation for south europe, specialy Portugal and Spain? Thank you so much.
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Please can you tell me something about situation for south europe, specialy Portugal and Spain? Thank you so much.

Dude, I know you keep asking but nobody on here (or anywhere else for that matter) is going to know for sure what the interaction between the Stratosphere and the troposphere will be following on from the SSW for a while yet, never mind where the sweet spots are going to be in and around Europe, IF things go our way.

Its a VERY developing and dynamic situation. Best thing is stick around in here over the next couple of weeks and see what occurs.

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Dude, I know you keep asking but nobody on here (or anywhere else for that matter) is going to know for sure what the interaction between the Stratosphere and the troposphere will be following on from the SSW for a while yet, never mind where the sweet spots are going to be in and around Europe, IF things go our way.

Its a VERY developing and dynamic situation. Best thing is stick around in here over the next couple of weeks and see what occurs.

Thank you so much for your reply. I'm very worried about all this, because me and everyone in Portugal are not prepared for a big cold. I say that if we get temp of -10c or below for some time, many people will die. Me and my family have to get out of our home and go south for survive... so this is a very bad situation for us. So the only thing i hask you and others is as soon as you can and know, please post what we in the south europe can expect. Thank you so much for this brilliant collective work!Posted Image
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