Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013

[AWD]

Strongest warming yet?

Warming showing up at higher levels within T240 too, but yet to filter down to lower levels.

Is it me or is the GFS going back to its original idea of moving the PV eastwards towards Russia?

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121213/00/384/npst30.png

[Ice BIast]

Wave 1 activity is forecast to increase again to 1400 at day 10.

Looks like the vortex wont be able to relax for a while!

Edited December 13, 2012 by lce Blast

[chionomaniac]

Forecast warming up to 9.2C at 10 hpa in FI. First signs that something is brewing on the ECM today.

Last year we saw a long period of forecast warming at 1 HPa in FI before it filtered down and came into fruition. This year is slightly different. The forecasts are reeling in slowly, and are at 10 hpa and have been extremely consistent - always a good sign.

The forecasts temp upto 9.2C may not be correct but I think that that is as warm as Jan 2009. What followed was a split SSW - this time if we are to see a SSW it would be a displacement type. Some displacement SSW's just push the vortex off the pole before it regains strength and pushes back. The greater the warming, the greater chance that we will see the vortex pushed off the pole and completely disintergrate.

In the last 4 winters I haven't seen this type of full displacement and disintergration occur yet in the heart of winter, so we will be on a new monitoring ground for me here. If this type of scenario looks a possibility further down the line then we can start looking at possible tropospheric implications, but presently I think that we should just keep quiet about that and watch up above from down below!

Edited December 13, 2012 by chionomaniac

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Forecast warming up to 9.2C at 10 hpa in FI. First signs that something is brewing on the ECM today.

Last year we saw a long period of forecast warming at 1 HPa in FI before it filtered down and came into fruition. This year is slightly different. The forecasts are reeling in slowly, and are at 10 hpa and have been extremely consistent - always a good sign.

The forecasts temp upto 9.2C may not be correct but I think that that is as warm as Jan 2009. What followed was a split SSW - this time if we are to see a SSW it would be a displacement type. Some displacement SSW's just push the vortex off the pole before it regains strength and pushes back. The greater the warming, the greater chance that we will see the vortex pushed off the pole and completely disintergrate.

In the last 4 winters I haven't seen this type of full displacement and disintergration occur yet in the heart of winter, so we will be on a new monitoring ground for me here. If this type of scenario looks a possibility further down the line then we can start looking at possible tropospheric implications, but presently I think that we should just keep quiet about that and watch up above from down below!

Very fascinating Ed thankyou for all your hard work you put in , do you think as the warming now begins to come every closer we may start to see more positive looking charts leaking out? Surely they will pick up in this signal and therefore move away from this horrible outlook we have at the minute ?

The thing is we are still in the cold spell at the min yet ppl are writing off the next two wks which I find quite bizarre !

[chionomaniac]

Very fascinating Ed thankyou for all your hard work you put in , do you think as the warming now begins to come every closer we may start to see more positive looking charts leaking out? Surely they will pick up in this signal and therefore move away from this horrible outlook we have at the minute ?

The thing is we are still in the cold spell at the min yet ppl are writing off the next two wks which I find quite bizarre !

No, not yet. I think that there was always likely to be a less cold spell. It has just come a little sooner than I would have imagined - but also have the first signs of a strat warming to balance that.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

No, not yet. I think that there was always likely to be a less cold spell. It has just come a little sooner than I would have imagined - but also have the first signs of a strat warming to balance that.

Right ok , a bit of a waiting game then. Thanks.

[beng]

Thanks for all your hard work Ed - love reading this thread. Assuming we were to just get a vortex displacement, what factors would influence where the vortex would be displaced to? Is that just completely unpredictable at this stage - and dependent upon surface features at the time of the displacement, or can we make an educated guess?

[chionomaniac]

Getting into the reliable now ( for strat)

T+240 10 hpa

T+384

Max predicted temp 9.7C

Thanks for all your hard work Ed - love reading this thread. Assuming we were to just get a vortex displacement, what factors would influence where the vortex would be displaced to? Is that just completely unpredictable at this stage - and dependent upon surface features at the time of the displacement, or can we make an educated guess?

Initially I would expect the vortex to get displaced to Siberia. From then it is anyones guess.

[TEITS]

Lets hope we see a change in the ensembles because it looks dreadful towards the end of this year.

Ensembles showing a very positive AO, NAO with the jet aligned SW-NE.

Basically the worst winter synoptics possible for the UK.

[chionomaniac]

Lets hope we see a change in the ensembles because it looks dreadful towards the end of this year.

http://modeles.meteo...-21-1-384.png?6

Ensembles showing a very positive AO, NAO with the jet aligned SW-NE.

Basically the worst winter synoptics possible for the UK.

Rest assured, Dave, any projected warming that is forecast to start in 10 days, max out at around day 20 and cause a SSW around that time before possibly affecting the troposphere some time after that is not going to show in any tropospheric model output yet!

[bradymk]

Rest assured, Dave, any projected warming that is forecast to start in 10 days, max out at around day 20 and cause a SSW around that time before possibly affecting the troposphere some time after that is not going to show in any tropospheric model output yet!

I wonder if the MetO are picking up on this potential warming, be interesting to find out if they have more data available.

[bluearmy]

I wonder if the MetO are picking up on this potential warming, be interesting to find out if they have more data available.

that is what i was thinking. they made comments in the past that some of their 30 day forecasts had been tilted to cold on the basis of strat forecasts. assuming this warming continues to show and looks like it will make inroads into the vortex, we might expect next weeks 30 day daily issue to have some caveats (if the ecm 30 dayer continues to show mobile)

[Uncle_Barty]

Lets hope we see a change in the ensembles because it looks dreadful towards the end of this year.

http://modeles.meteo...-21-1-384.png?6

Ensembles showing a very positive AO, NAO with the jet aligned SW-NE.

Basically the worst winter synoptics possible for the UK.

Or the best, depending on your perspective. If we ended up in a 1988/89 type of pattern I would not be disappointed, but I would be surprised if that happened this year.

With regard to the strat, I am guessing that even if a SSW happened and the vortex was annihilated, we would still need to get the right combination of ridge/trough setup in order to go into the freezer?

[beng]

Initially I would expect the vortex to get displaced to Siberia. From then it is anyones guess.

Thanks - could be very good for cold potentially if we get a block over the pole or Greenland at the same time. My worry with the displacement (rather than split) and much of the vortex in Siberia - is that blocking sets up too far West for getting cold into the UK.

Edited December 13, 2012 by beng

[Mark Bayley]

Strongest warming yet?

Warming showing up at higher levels within T240 too, but yet to filter down to lower levels.

Is it me or is the GFS going back to its original idea of moving the PV eastwards towards Russia?

http://cdn.nwstatic..../384/npst30.png

Yes, seems to be getting a little stronger with each run! Is going to be a very interesting couple of days, especially as we bring it closer to a realiable timeframe, and can start viewing it on the ECM charts as well. Although saying that we can see first signs on the T240 chart which CH posted earlier

http://wekuw.met.fu-...st=f240&lng=eng

Edited December 13, 2012 by Mark Bayley

[snowking]

Just been reading back through the Cohen et al. Paper on SAI and corresponding stratospheric feedback, and I think this paragraph stood out for me:

We suggest that the intensification of the Siberian high, along with the thermal impacts of enhanced snow cover and topographic forcing, corresponds to a positive wave activity flux anomaly in the late fall and early winter, leading to stratospheric warming and to the January tropospheric negative winter AO response we have mentioned above.

I think you can see where I am placing the emphasis there, and this was certainly the case in 2009/10, though of course we did also end up with a cold spell in mid-late December that year. Would anyone happen to have a link to the eurasian snowfall advance in 2009 to see if it happened any quicker than this year?

SK

Edited December 13, 2012 by snowking

[kold weather]

Thats the type of warming that almost certainly will see a SSW offically I'd have thought, very impressive on the 12z GFS!

[Isolated Frost]

I think it's been noted before.. but 12c at 10hpa from 372- quite a notable event upcoming if we can persist with the upcoming nwp predictions.

Note though that the main vortex energy moves into Greenland, which would be rather more unconductive towards cold around NW Europe- but the prominent signal is for a major warming D11 onwards- let the further details be known closer to the event

Main stronghold of the vortex at the lower strat at D10 towards Novaya Zemlya- in line w/ the EC D10 output-

Note the american meridionality and canadian blocking high in terms of moving forward- the vortex event over n greenland does not look particularly prominent and the movement of such a vortex may even mean little if the warming can penetrate enough post D15-

from a enthusiastic pov, analysing the strat is really interesting this season.. homework can take the back seat

Edited December 13, 2012 by Isolated Frost

[KTtom]

I'm glad you mentioned this Isolated Frost, because having read the interest regarding this warming event, it seams to me that the PV is shifted to the worst possible scenario, i.e. Greenland. Am I missing something here?

[bluearmy]

i wouldnt pay too much attention to where the trop vortex is as the warming comes into the strat circulation. there are signs on the fi gefs this evening that the trop vortex will be pushed, pulled, stretched and maybe blown to pieces by the time the warming starts.

also, where is the placement of the vortex core @ 10hpa at the end of the gfs run? it does appear to be shifted towards greenland on the meteociel chart but on nw 30hpa, that centre is still over the siberian side. can the strat vortex exist at such different locales within 20hpa ???

Edited December 13, 2012 by bluearmy

[Gael_Force]

Looks to be similar location at +384

[bluearmy]

Looks to be similar location at +384

thanks for that GF - its just meteociels representation of temps only that is misleading

[chionomaniac]

thanks for that GF - its just meteociels representation of temps only that is misleading

Yes it is better to look at Netweather or instant weather maps.

For the record here are the GFS 12Z charts FI for 10 hPa

And the latest forecast temp ...... a whopping 13.9ºC!!! There would be no PV left if that was to materialise!!!

[Isolated Frost]

Yes it is better to look at Netweather or instant weather maps.

For the record here are the GFS 12Z charts FI for 10 hPa

And the latest forecast temp ...... a whopping 13.9ºC!!! There would be no PV left if that was to materialise!!!

Indeed- and now on nw extra, the 10hpa scale has moved up to 10c so I'm sure we'll be able to see just as well on our residency how the breakdown is going to go down!

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

This is a new thread for me and one which I am slowly starting to understand. Just a quick question form me. Will the metoffice be aware of this forecasted warming of the stratosphere? If so will their 6-30 forecast change to show a more colder outlook? Many thanks GSL