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chionomaniac

Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013

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A reduction in zonal winds forecast at 1hpa,so a smallish stratospheric straw to clutch at.

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. Stewart seems to expect plenty wave 2 activity over the next few weeks. My understanding being that the activity we see now forecast is the consequence of trop waves a few weeks ago and the trop picture over the past couple weeks/currently will lead to more of this.

whilst I would tend to agree with you, I've rarely seen GP so bullish about the next month or so.

The current wave 2 forecast seems to prevent the zonal wind going above 30 m/s at 30 hpa.

I am expecting more wave activity too Nick, but I am not expecting Matt's tin cans to be knocked down until mid December. I think that we will need to now see some strat warming to help things along.

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I think we need to be very careful solar flux is rising and this is likely to have a dynamic effect on the teleconnections.

I expect the models to back track further with zonal set up continuing into December.

Although I don't expect a very mild setup.

I think gp thinking is what he's been seeing over the last few weeks with things looking in favour for a blocked setup with possibly colder air hitting our shores.

But since then things have swung for and against a fair few times.

but I do believe that a continual zonal average is the most likely out come as teleconnections swing less in favour.

And to be honest models have continued to show uncertain outcomes I think fi will start to see downgrades also.

I'm not saying winter is over neither am I criticising gp in anyway.

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then why is GP being so bullish?

Watch the prelim winter video? Or his recent post in technical thread couple days ago....

Agree with ba, haven't seen gp so confident for quite sometime.

Fingers crossed

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Watch the prelim winter video? Or his recent post in technical thread couple days ago....

Agree with ba, haven't seen gp so confident for quite sometime.

Fingers crossed

exactly

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Out of interest, how are we doing with the Strat compared to this point in 2009? Any similarity?

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Out of interest, how are we doing with the Strat compared to this point in 2009? Any similarity?

A lot colder and worse this year, Gavin.

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then why is GP being so bullish?

I think GP is being very bullish because the tropospheric signals are so strong. I suspect that he is right in his thoughts for the general pattern but that it will be delayed until we have gathered enough wave amplitude to knock out the developing vortex completely. We see the FI model output consistently suggesting that the polar vortex is wobbling, but like a weeble it is not quite falling over. And if we don't have enough repeated wave feedback then it could be a case of so close and yet so far for early winter. We have the boxer on the ropes, it would appear.

For those too young to remember ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weeble )

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I think GP is being very bullish because the tropospheric signals are so strong. I suspect that he is right in his thoughts for the general pattern but that it will be delayed until we have gathered enough wave amplitude to knock out the developing vortex completely. We see the FI model output consistently suggesting that the polar vortex is wobbling, but like a weeble it is not quite falling over. And if we don't have enough repeated wave feedback then it could be a case of so close and yet so far for early winter. We have the boxer on the ropes, it would appear.

For those too young to remember ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weeble )

Thats a great Analogy mate. Thanks.

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A lot colder and worse this year, Gavin.

Thanks. :)

I noted that 2009 had a very mild and Atlantic dominated November, but remembered that on a global scale there was a lot of indicators pointing towards cold.

Edited by Gavin P

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Hi Chio, was just wondering do you know the reason why the stratosphere has been cooling off so much in recent years? I know the last two years now have seen record low temps if I am correct.

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Hi Chio, was just wondering do you know the reason why the stratosphere has been cooling off so much in recent years? I know the last two years now have seen record low temps if I am correct.

I am not really sure and therefore not in a position to answer that. Certainly this autumn the polar stratosphere record cooling has certainly surprised me - with a -ve QBO, expectant enhanced BDC, I was expecting the polar strat to be a lot warmer. Instead that warmth seems to be spread right out at latitudes further south. Edited by chionomaniac

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A few off topic posts have been hidden as they didn't add much to the discussion.

Edited by Jackone

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hi chio a qs. With the data we have available to us what is the lowest strat temp recorded and and highest recorded? Thx.

Hi Syed, I hadn't forgotten!

I will give the North Pole temp readings:

at 30 hPa the warmest recorded reading is -45ºC and coldest -90ºC.

at 10 hPa the warmest is -30ºC and the coldest is -92ºC.

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thanks chio i appreciate that thanks also for the charts i'm unable to read them so again thanks.

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thanks chio i appreciate that thanks also for the charts i'm unable to read them so again thanks.

No probs - if there is anything that you can't see clearly that I post, just shout!

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I think GP is being very bullish because the tropospheric signals are so strong. I suspect that he is right in his thoughts for the general pattern but that it will be delayed until we have gathered enough wave amplitude to knock out the developing vortex completely. We see the FI model output consistently suggesting that the polar vortex is wobbling, but like a weeble it is not quite falling over. And if we don't have enough repeated wave feedback then it could be a case of so close and yet so far for early winter. We have the boxer on the ropes, it would appear.

For those too young to remember ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weeble )

I think the upcoming period is quite a good test case. If strong tropospheric signals are turned over by a strong stratosphere then it will certainly suggest that the stratosphere is close to being the no 1 player in the weather jigsaw. My head tells me, however, that this is unlikely to be the case. I think we are in danger in this thread of seeing the stratosphere as the holy grail on its own... and forgetting that many other factors are important too. There is much that is still unknown here, not least how various levels of the strat interact with each other let along the troposphere, and the very fact that ongoing wave 2 activity is forecast suggests to me anyway that the strat is going to become proportionally less significant as it begins to wobble and moves (hopefully) towards a split.

This is not to say that the cold stratosphere at the moment is not important, but I just think it cant be quite as simple as 1 factor over all the rest.

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We would currently expect the vortex to be showing signs of strengthening due to the anomolous cold mid strat and increasing zonal wind and yet the ECM ens mean at day 10 continues to show it stretched from Canada to Siberia. Admittedly we have seen previous forecasts showing a split vortex by day 10 and these have yet to make it any closer than day 10. Nevertheless, I am intrigued to see the arctic pattern as we approach the back end of November failing to build a decent p/v.

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We would currently expect the vortex to be showing signs of strengthening due to the anomolous cold mid strat and increasing zonal wind and yet the ECM ens mean at day 10 continues to show it stretched from Canada to Siberia. Admittedly we have seen previous forecasts showing a split vortex by day 10 and these have yet to make it any closer than day 10. Nevertheless, I am intrigued to see the arctic pattern as we approach the back end of November failing to build a decent p/v.

Without further wave activity that stretched vortex will recover and regain shape and strength. However, I am not so sure that recovery will occur and I am expecting a warming in around a fortnight.

Already, we are seeing signs of this on the models in FI.

6Z run

post-4523-0-55106200-1352927585_thumb.pn

12Z run

post-4523-0-62587900-1352927609_thumb.pn

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Why should the wave activity taper off ed? it may not be strong enough to break the vortex but it seems to be currently preventing the strongest zonal winds from downwelling beyond 30hpa and also trending towards the southern arm rather than the northern.

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Why should the wave activity taper off ed? it may not be strong enough to break the vortex but it seems to be currently preventing the strongest zonal winds from downwelling beyond 30hpa and also trending towards the southern arm rather than the northern.

I think it waxes and wanes as seen in 2009 and 2010. It won't taper off, but we don't want to see too much waning either as this aids vortex recovery.

post-4523-0-16194800-1352929090_thumb.gi

post-4523-0-75903700-1352929104_thumb.gi

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Haven't seen a chart forecast like this (FI I know) since 2 winters ago.

post-4523-0-32044100-1352933165_thumb.pn

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Haven't seen a chart forecast like this (FI I know) since 2 winters ago.

post-4523-0-32044100-1352933165_thumb.pn

They are 2 very impressive charts from the 18Z GFS! Must admit the elongation on some of those charts seem to have been heading that way for some time. Unless I'm mistaken its a shame there are no geo wave 1 and 2 GFS charts as per the charts from the ECMWF as perhaps the 18Z run is showing some additional and noteworthy waves to create that pattern.

We all know the flaws of the GFS Det model from a forecasting perspective but this is one signal that clearly needs monitoring for consistency.

Impressive split!

Matt.

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