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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013


chionomaniac

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Not surprisingly, yesterday's ECM 12z run shows the reversal in zonal winds at the pole upwelling right though the trop and into base of the strat days 8 to 10.

First day of forecast temp charts on Berlin shows 10 and 30 hpa temps forecast below average.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Signs of further wavebreaking at the bottom and top of the Stratosphere?

Here we have forecasts at day 10 of a number 1 and 2 wave activity.

post-2026-0-36530700-1351855076_thumb.gipost-2026-0-60999700-1351855087_thumb.gi

maybe this is what the ECM modelling last night was picking up on.-re, further disruption to the vortex in spite of it`s cooling.

Still little sign of mean zonal winds increasing at the lower levels.

post-2026-0-44123900-1351855322_thumb.gipost-2026-0-29982500-1351855336_thumb.gi

Those blue(negative)means in the tropical mid-levels putting the brakes on any increase in the westerlies at higher latitudes.

All this allowing trophospheric heights to pop up where the vortex is fragmented.

I can only assume whilst these type of zonal mean winds forecasts continue then the modelling of polar sypnotics will continue to show a somewhat disorganised pv.

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Posted
  • Location: Barnoldswick, Lancs, 500ft
  • Location: Barnoldswick, Lancs, 500ft

Signs of further wavebreaking at the bottom and top of the Stratosphere?

Here we have forecasts at day 10 of a number 1 and 2 wave activity.

post-2026-0-36530700-1351855076_thumb.gipost-2026-0-60999700-1351855087_thumb.gi

maybe this is what the ECM modelling last night was picking up on.-re, further disruption to the vortex in spite of it`s cooling.

Still little sign of mean zonal winds increasing at the lower levels.

post-2026-0-44123900-1351855322_thumb.gipost-2026-0-29982500-1351855336_thumb.gi

Those blue(negative)means in the tropical mid-levels putting the brakes on any increase in the westerlies at higher latitudes.

All this allowing trophospheric heights to pop up where the vortex is fragmented.

I can only assume whilst these type of zonal mean winds forecasts continue then the modelling of polar sypnotics will continue to show a somewhat disorganised pv.

Yeah, another good set of charts which seems to help summarise the reasons why the conditions across the polar troposphere are as they are and have been and are likely to continue to be as well.

Other thing which is interesting is the following two images;

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t30_nh_f240.gif

http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ec.php?alert=1&level=30&forecast=f240&lng=eng

Clearly and unfortunately at the far end of the forecast period, but seeing that are similarities between both at the 240hr time frame, in my opinion, gives it a little more credit. But clearly at what has been quite a cold 30hPa level of late, there does seem to be a forecasted region of warming conditions either over or coming out of eastern Russia/Asia. Perhaps, as highlighted above, a mountain torque event which the models are attempting forecast(?).

Must admit that mountain torque graphic which does the rounds sometimes, I'm not sure of the website for that, so if someone can let me know in due course that would be appreciated.

M.

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Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl

Yeah, another good set of charts which seems to help summarise the reasons why the conditions across the polar troposphere are as they are and have been and are likely to continue to be as well.

Other thing which is interesting is the following two images;

http://www.cpc.ncep....t30_nh_f240.gif

http://wekuw.met.fu-...st=f240&lng=eng

Clearly and unfortunately at the far end of the forecast period, but seeing that are similarities between both at the 240hr time frame, in my opinion, gives it a little more credit. But clearly at what has been quite a cold 30hPa level of late, there does seem to be a forecasted region of warming conditions either over or coming out of eastern Russia/Asia. Perhaps, as highlighted above, a mountain torque event which the models are attempting forecast(?).

Must admit that mountain torque graphic which does the rounds sometimes, I'm not sure of the website for that, so if someone can let me know in due course that would be appreciated.

M.

Not too sure of the full website but i've got the image bookmarked:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/reanalysis/aam_total/gltaum.90day.gif

SK

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Are we still looking at the Troposphere overriding any cooling within the Stratosphere at this moment in time?

I think the way to look at it is that the cooling is only strengthening the vortex at the higher levels- down to about 10hPa or thereabouts.

Lower down mean zonal winds(westerlys) are much weaker than normal and this allows height rises more readily at trophospheric levels to occur around the higher latitudes.

As we can see from the images in my post the effect of the -QBO and some sporadic wavebreaking seem to be combining to disrupt the vortex currently.

Maybe Chiono. can give a more polished explanation but i think that`s the gist of it.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Yeah, another good set of charts which seems to help summarise the reasons why the conditions across the polar troposphere are as they are and have been and are likely to continue to be as well.

Other thing which is interesting is the following two images;

http://www.cpc.ncep....t30_nh_f240.gif

http://wekuw.met.fu-...st=f240&lng=eng

Clearly and unfortunately at the far end of the forecast period, but seeing that are similarities between both at the 240hr time frame, in my opinion, gives it a little more credit. But clearly at what has been quite a cold 30hPa level of late, there does seem to be a forecasted region of warming conditions either over or coming out of eastern Russia/Asia. Perhaps, as highlighted above, a mountain torque event which the models are attempting forecast(?).

Must admit that mountain torque graphic which does the rounds sometimes, I'm not sure of the website for that, so if someone can let me know in due course that would be appreciated.

M.

Hi Matt,

Here`s the link for the MT forecasts along with some other data.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/aam.90day.total.shtml

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Posted
  • Location: Barnoldswick, Lancs, 500ft
  • Location: Barnoldswick, Lancs, 500ft

Matt, what did the ecm 32 dayer say today? Showing some consistency?

Cheers

It's got a strong signal for low pressure to be over the UK towards mid-month, but this isn't unexpected, but at the same time maintaining a +ve pressure anom to the west of the UK and also perhaps up into Greenland at times. In fact there's the potential threat of a temporary N'ly outbreak next weekend from that kind of pattern which is what it has and is signalling. The signal for later in the month and now just into early December is again for low pressure to become more influential to the south or south-west of the UK with again a signal for a +ve pressure anom to the north or north-east.

So in essence, yes, there is consistency from the last update for the end of November to potentially have higher pressure becoming more influential to the N and NE of the UK and with continued little signs of any significant polar vortex/low pressure setting up shop over Greenland.

Matt.

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Posted
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level

I have a question, but I'm really not sure how to phrase it ...but here goes..

Considering that the vortex is still disrupted, despite the lower stratospheric Temperature

Would it be possible (If the mean zonal winds stay at low levels) that even a slight warming would have the same effect as a larger warming in other years.

In other words, would we actually need a SSW event at all this Winter to produce the same effects a SSW event would have in other years, bearing in mind that we would normally rely on a SSW to displace the vortex and send a plunge of cold air this way ??

IF we did then get a SSW would the effect be amplified if we got one and the polar vortex was already disrupted ??

Would would be the likely effect of one, and how would it differ if (for arguments sake) the vortex was already disrupted and the zonal wind speed was already at low levels.

I hope that's not a dumb question

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Posted
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex

It's got a strong signal for low pressure to be over the UK towards mid-month, but this isn't unexpected, but at the same time maintaining a +ve pressure anom to the west of the UK and also perhaps up into Greenland at times. In fact there's the potential threat of a temporary N'ly outbreak next weekend from that kind of pattern which is what it has and is signalling. The signal for later in the month and now just into early December is again for low pressure to become more influential to the south or south-west of the UK with again a signal for a +ve pressure anom to the north or north-east.

So in essence, yes, there is consistency from the last update for the end of November to potentially have higher pressure becoming more influential to the N and NE of the UK and with continued little signs of any significant polar vortex/low pressure setting up shop over Greenland.

Matt.

Thanks Matt, much appreciated for your update and continued updates to come!

Edited by tcc
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

those ecm zonal wind charts will look interesting again in the morning. wonder whether the reversed flow will reach the lower reaches of the strat again. if so, we should be looking to see if any waves begin to upwell on the forecasts.

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

I have a question, but I'm really not sure how to phrase it ...but here goes..

Considering that the vortex is still disrupted, despite the lower stratospheric Temperature

Would it be possible (If the mean zonal winds stay at low levels) that even a slight warming would have the same effect as a larger warming in other years.

In other words, would we actually need a SSW event at all this Winter to produce the same effects a SSW event would have in other years, bearing in mind that we would normally rely on a SSW to displace the vortex and send a plunge of cold air this way ??

IF we did then get a SSW would the effect be amplified if we got one and the polar vortex was already disrupted ??

Would would be the likely effect of one, and how would it differ if (for arguments sake) the vortex was already disrupted and the zonal wind speed was already at low levels.

I hope that's not a dumb question

Will answer tomorrow- best not now!

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

Had a chance to look through the seasonal OND height charts, some interesting history in there, whilst 09 and 10 brought us a taste of winter proper for the first time in what seemed like ages, am wondering if the real story is the exceptional behaviour of the atmosphere in 2011 ? 30 years difference between these two and probably proof that looking for trends is futile, however the stark contrast is amazing.

post-7292-0-95948300-1351898798_thumb.gipost-7292-0-60639300-1351898781_thumb.gi

And for this year in comparison to the two decent Winters recently experienced, plenty of lower activity this October however you can see the heights making real upper progress in the other 2 previous years. Compared to the others in this period 2009 and 2010 arguably look like a better fit.

post-7292-0-13195200-1351899043_thumb.gipost-7292-0-47426600-1351899064_thumb.gipost-7292-0-35776600-1351899072_thumb.gi

In respect of the K ridge and GP analogs in model thread, would have been nice to have a look OND for 1977, another year with CW episode.

post-7292-0-53325500-1351899704_thumb.pn post-7292-0-13889800-1351899712_thumb.pn

Found a link for SAI data on Rutgers site, doesn't look too difficult to extract the coverage from this, may be useful, on AmWx some interesting debate continues about ENSO status into Winter, some bullish predictions, however as someone wrote, other factors leading the way this Winter..

Edited by lorenzo
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Whats interesting there is you can see in 2009 that by the end of the year there had already been 2 fully upwelling warmings whilst 2010 got 1 around now. In the lower stratosphere we look better than both years but are between the 2 in the upper stratosphere.

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Posted
  • Location: Barnoldswick, Lancs, 500ft
  • Location: Barnoldswick, Lancs, 500ft

Could be in the model discussion thread this, so I'll keep it brief, but despite some of the recent ECM 32 day updates, some of the midnight runs in particular towards mid-month look increasingly zonal and with some particularly cold temps developing in and around Greenland and a subsequent risk of the polar vortex setting 'up shop'

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2641.png

One to watch...

M.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Another scenario that could play out, putting things in place with the mild signal I have on my method. The SST around Newfoundland will have HP centred around there is a concern of mine. A westerly flow with winds likely from SW bringing mild to v mild conditions would ensue with the vortex there. It will be interesting to see if a flat pattern emerges, a big change from the signals yesterday though re MJO and MT events. GP suggested that we'd see some waxing and waning before Greenland heights return so that may be something the models will do. Its all FI so as you say one to watch for sure, because if it sets up shop its Usually there for sometime

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

I have a question, but I'm really not sure how to phrase it ...but here goes..

Considering that the vortex is still disrupted, despite the lower stratospheric Temperature

Would it be possible (If the mean zonal winds stay at low levels) that even a slight warming would have the same effect as a larger warming in other years.

In other words, would we actually need a SSW event at all this Winter to produce the same effects a SSW event would have in other years, bearing in mind that we would normally rely on a SSW to displace the vortex and send a plunge of cold air this way ??

IF we did then get a SSW would the effect be amplified if we got one and the polar vortex was already disrupted ??

Would would be the likely effect of one, and how would it differ if (for arguments sake) the vortex was already disrupted and the zonal wind speed was already at low levels.

I hope that's not a dumb question

I think it is too early to be talking about SSW's - they are normally a mid season phenomena.

What we would like to see is a warmer polar stratosphere full stop. Presently we are seeing the upper stratosphere cooling and the vortex cranking up. The lower polar stratosphere and troposphere are still in a more disrupted vortex pattern but without the levels above warming then I believe it is only a matter of time before the upper stratospheric conditions override the lower.

I have suggested reasons why this has not occurred yet, but with further cooling forecast and a further increase in mean zonal winds, the writing is on the wall as far as I am concerned.

post-4523-0-00651900-1351935370_thumb.gi

It is a matter of when rather than if (the tropospheric vortex increasing in strength) unless we see a change in the stratospheric conditions that I suggested possible last month.

It is no surprise to see the ECM 32 dayer becoming increasingly zonal as per Matt's post.

Edited by chionomaniac
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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

So C, you don't see GPs view playing out?

BFTP

My head is telling me that the cold stratosphere will win out unless we see some increased wave breaking into it. My heart wants GP's forecast to be true.
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

My head is telling me that the cold stratosphere will win out unless we see some increased wave breaking into it. My heart wants GP's forecast to be true.

Yep. I have my idea of this winter ie descending, but am delaying committing because I think this latter half of Nov is a v important period. My descending scenario suggests an unblocked scenario initially but with blocking returning as we progress more like 85/6. However, if it comes off like GP suggests then maybe more like 68/9?

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands

It is no surprise to see the ECM 32 dayer becoming increasingly zonal as per Matt's post. -> No, that's not what Matt is telling us.

he wrote

'but despite some of the recent ECM 32 day updates, some of the midnight runs in particular towards mid-month look increasingly zonal and with some particularly cold temps developing in and around Greenland and a subsequent risk of the polar vortex setting 'up shop'

I'm not native English speaker, so it might be the language Posted Image

In my opinion it takes time before the effects of the SAI will take place. Too early, to be joyfull or sad.

Edited by sebastiaan1973
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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

It is no surprise to see the ECM 32 dayer becoming increasingly zonal as per Matt's post. -> No, that's not what Matt is telling us.

he wrote

'but despite some of the recent ECM 32 day updates, some of the midnight runs in particular towards mid-month look increasingly zonal and with some particularly cold temps developing in and around Greenland and a subsequent risk of the polar vortex setting 'up shop'

I'm not native English speaker, so it might be the language Posted Image

In my opinion it takes time before the effects of the SAI will take place. Too early, to be joyfull or sad.

You are right Seb, my head isn't as clear as it usually is this morning! I still believe that the cold stratosphere will eventually win out though!

Edited by chionomaniac
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