Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

    That -80 doesn't look too promising!

    No need to panic CC,the 18z has it back up to -76. Posted Image

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 2.5k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    Steve whilst I agree to a certain extent, more especially with regards to the difficulty in forecasting exact placement of tropospheric synoptics (particularly with regard to the UK in the overall sch

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    A better warming is forecast at around the 15 day period and this has been growing on consecutive runs. It is FI but worth keeping a watch on still.

    We are also currently seeing a minor warming that has dragged us back up to average - every little helps!

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: E Lancs, 900ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, blizzards, cold, thunderstorms, frosts, fog, general extreme weather
  • Location: E Lancs, 900ft asl

    The latest update of the ECM 32 day is fascinating today. It keeps the current signal for a meridional pattern across the north Atlantic until mid month at least with a lower pressure anom to the east or north-east which essentially leads to a risk of northerly outbreaks.

    Later in the month pressure becomes lower over France and higher to the north and northeast with the general mean flow becoming northeasterly, with a similar synoptic pattern to that of late Nov 09!

    It's safe to say this update keeps temps average at very best throughout November if not below average with little or no evidence to support a noteworthy polar vortex or a +NAO pattern for example.

    Cheers. Matt.

    • Like 9
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    The latest update of the ECM 32 day is fascinating today. It keeps the current signal for a meridional pattern across the north Atlantic until mid month at least with a lower pressure anom to the east or north-east which essentially leads to a risk of northerly outbreaks.

    Later in the month pressure becomes lower over France and higher to the north and northeast with the general mean flow becoming northeasterly, with a similar synoptic pattern to that of late Nov 09!

    It's safe to say this update keeps temps average at very best throughout November if not below average with little or no evidence to support a noteworthy polar vortex or a +NAO pattern for example.

    Cheers. Matt.

    Matt

    Do you mean Nov '10? Although I would much prefer a winter of 09/10 than 10/11

    BFTP

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: E Lancs, 900ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, blizzards, cold, thunderstorms, frosts, fog, general extreme weather
  • Location: E Lancs, 900ft asl

    Matt

    Do you mean Nov '10? Although I would much prefer a winter of 09/10 than 10/11

    BFTP

    Apologies, yeah I mean Nov 10 in relation the latter half of the month in terms of similar synoptics. The ECM 32 has quite a low consistency of late which is always a concern but it'll be very interesting to follow further updates and again the distinct lack of a polar vortex is clearly evident.

    Matt.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Harrow (Fulwood), London, (Sheffield)
  • Location: Harrow (Fulwood), London, (Sheffield)

    A better warming is forecast at around the 15 day period and this has been growing on consecutive runs. It is FI but worth keeping a watch on still.

    We are also currently seeing a minor warming that has dragged us back up to average - every little helps!

    I'm guessing its these you're talking about?

    Posted ImagePosted Image

    Two questions, the charts show two notable areas of warming, Canada and Eastern Russia, would i be right in thinking that this might be a Canadian warming you thought was possible in the middle of November (but then i notice the most significant warming shown is over eastern Russia) or am wrong?. Also there are two sets of charts (the others not posted) which are named ascending and descending, is there significance in this, or is it they are just run at different times? Thanks :)

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Mark the ascending and descending readings come as the satellite drops trough and then rises to the top of the strat. The readings are 6 hours apart I think.

    The charts you posted are current readings and do not show a Canadian warming. Ed is plumping for one of these later on in November. all the warmings shown on the forecast charts are fairly gentle and not showing at the pole. However, they are occurring into the Canadian sector in week 2 and are slowly pushing the strat vortex towards Siberia and if continuing, could well manage to raise the polar strat readings to reasonable above av numbers. we are still not seeing zonal mean winds getting much above 20m/s at 30hpa, despite recent strat temps below average. I would have expected the push in zonal winds to have propagated further down and for speeds at 30hpa to be forecast to reach above 25m/s. there does seem to be some resistance in the mid/upper strat to build a strong vortex. I wonder if this has anything to do with the wave 1 temperature rise forecast now pushing down into the 20 to 30 hpa area in the latter stages?

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Harrow (Fulwood), London, (Sheffield)
  • Location: Harrow (Fulwood), London, (Sheffield)

    Mark the ascending and descending readings come as the satellite drops trough and then rises to the top of the strat. The readings are 6 hours apart I think.

    The charts you posted are current readings and do not show a Canadian warming. Ed is plumping for one of these later on in November. all the warmings shown on the forecast charts are fairly gentle and not showing at the pole. However, they are occurring into the Canadian sector in week 2 and are slowly pushing the strat vortex towards Siberia and if continuing, could well manage to raise the polar strat readings to reasonable above av numbers. we are still not seeing zonal mean winds getting much above 20m/s at 30hpa, despite recent strat temps below average. I would have expected the push in zonal winds to have propagated further down and for speeds at 30hpa to be forecast to reach above 25m/s. there does seem to be some resistance in the mid/upper strat to build a strong vortex. I wonder if this has anything to do with the wave 1 temperature rise forecast now pushing down into the 20 to 30 hpa area in the latter stages?

    Thanks for your reply, i mostly understand, i think!Posted Image I must have got confused by associating the number NOAA-15 - 16 with days when in fact, after having a proper look its the current analysis, or readings as you state Posted Image . I noticed the forecasts go to T240 but isn't this only 10 days, are there forecasts available that go further?

    Hopefully these become available as we start November, easiest to understand for those like me who are still very much in the early learning stages!

    http://wekuw.met.fu-...alert=1&lng=eng

    http://wekuw.met.fu-...alert=1&lng=eng

    Edited by Mark Bayley
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    The latest update of the ECM 32 day is fascinating today. It keeps the current signal for a meridional pattern across the north Atlantic until mid month at least with a lower pressure anom to the east or north-east which essentially leads to a risk of northerly outbreaks.

    Later in the month pressure becomes lower over France and higher to the north and northeast with the general mean flow becoming northeasterly, with a similar synoptic pattern to that of late Nov 09!

    It's safe to say this update keeps temps average at very best throughout November if not below average with little or no evidence to support a noteworthy polar vortex or a +NAO pattern for example.

    Cheers. Matt.

    Thanks for the update Matt.

    I suspect we have a month to play with whilst we see if the stratosphere continues to cool.

    Interestingly, we see that the extended ECM ensemble MJO forecasts are headed towards phase 6

    post-4523-0-68227600-1351625875_thumb.gi

    And the corresponding H500 anomaly pattern :

    post-4523-0-31600800-1351625939_thumb.gi

    I guess we can see why the ECM 32 dayer is such - the question remains though - is it right?!!

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: E Lancs, 900ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, blizzards, cold, thunderstorms, frosts, fog, general extreme weather
  • Location: E Lancs, 900ft asl

    Thanks for the update Matt.

    I suspect we have a month to play with whilst we see if the stratosphere continues to cool.

    Interestingly, we see that the extended ECM ensemble MJO forecasts are headed towards phase 6

    post-4523-0-68227600-1351625875_thumb.gi

    And the corresponding H500 anomaly pattern :

    post-4523-0-31600800-1351625939_thumb.gi

    I guess we can see why the ECM 32 dayer is such - the question remains though - is it right?!!

    I obviously can't post the ECM images but without question I can say the 4th week matches that image you have uploaded near perfect regarding the synoptic pattern.

    As you say it's got to happen yet and subsequent updates will be interesting. Still seems as though 'we' are in limbo land so to speak regarding early winter. Still some very interesting and noteworthy variables evident but in my opinion we are none the wiser on early winter just yet but here's hoping your CW prediction becomes reality!...

    Cheers.

    PS: The ECM seasonal model will be updated on the 8th November. Up to present this model has not signalled a cold, more blocked winter but a milder more zonal winter, so this final update will be interesting in 9 days or so.

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    Thanks once again Seb.

    This is quoted in the paper

    45 Fig. 6 shows that about 10 days after the MJO passes its phase with reduced (enhanced)

    46 convection over the western Paciï¬c (Indian) Ocean [phase 1 as deï¬ned by Wheeler and

    47 Hendon, 2004], warm anomalies are established in the polar lower stratosphere.

    and the current MJO forecast:

    post-4523-0-36714300-1350209943_thumb.gi

    Let's watch and learn!

    I forgot to revisit this to say that the current lower warming (which halted the cooling temporarily) was indeed seen in the right time frame following the MJO phase entering 1

    post-4523-0-74396300-1351627469_thumb.gi

    So some sort of confirmation here.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    I obviously can't post the ECM images but without question I can say the 4th week matches that image you have uploaded near perfect regarding the synoptic pattern.

    As you say it's got to happen yet and subsequent updates will be interesting. Still seems as though 'we' are in limbo land so to speak regarding early winter. Still some very interesting and noteworthy variables evident but in my opinion we are none the wiser on early winter just yet but here's hoping your CW prediction becomes reality!...

    Cheers.

    PS: The ECM seasonal model will be updated on the 8th November. Up to present this model has not signalled a cold, more blocked winter but a milder more zonal winter, so this final update will be interesting in 9 days or so.

    The 2 week MJO forecasts from the UKMO are headed that way as well Matt, though the GFS forecasts are not yet.

    And Matt do you know why the ECM final seasonal update a good three weeks before winter? If the strat changes significantly in those three weeks then it would make it invalid. On data presently I can (reluctantly) understand why the milder more zonal winter is signalled so far.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

    Wave 1 activity seems to have increased a little recently:

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_WAVE1_MEAN_OND_NH_2012.gif

    I suppose this is expected at the time of year and am not sure how significant this activity is but it's happened.

    It looks like a North American MT may be on its way, which, forgive me if I'm wrong, may increase Wave 1 activity, and maybe minor warming can occur in the stratosphere?

    http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/reanalysis/aam_total/gltaum.90day.gif

    I know this is probably insignificant but it's better than nothing.

    I forgot to revisit this to say that the current lower warming (which halted the cooling temporarily) was indeed seen in the right time frame following the MJO phase entering 1

    post-4523-0-74396300-1351627469_thumb.gi

    So some sort of confirmation here.

    Interesting, hopefully we can skip out Phase 5!

    Edited by 22nov10blast
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire

    On data presently I can (reluctantly) understand why the milder more zonal winter is signalled so far.

    I guess as others have said, lets hope the Canadian warming occurs next month then! However, there hasn't been a significant cooling so far like last year? Do you currrently understand there is a mild signal because we have yet to see a significant warming forecast for the strat?

    Edited by Don
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

    Isn't strat warming only part of any weather puzzle?

    Surely it is a precursor of deep cold - without a SSW we can still get cold? Yes?

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    Isn't strat warming only part of any weather puzzle?

    Surely it is a precursor of deep cold - without a SSW we can still get cold? Yes?

    You need to reverse it BB.

    If we have an extremely cold strat, then we are unlikely to see HLB's due to a strong vortex. Forget SSW's for the time being - we know that they can lead to cold but it can be hit and miss whether we can be in the firing line.

    So the question next to ask is can we get prolonged cold without HLB's? (not that we have had a significant period of an extremely cold strat that will lead to vortex intensification - VI)

    The average temperature strat is a bit of an enigma - it never really exists!

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    Interesting thus far, I am still looking at a 'descending' winter Dec av to mild, Jan av to cool, Feb cold to v cold

    BFTP

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

    I've always found the winter of 85-86 to be an interesting one. The strat ran cold from November to Jan (very similar levels to 11-12), January was a little above average with one short sharp warming spike but no great warming (I stand to be corrected though). A dictating vortex seemingly was never allowed to form in the way it did 2011-12 and was often kicked about left right and centre. A fairly cold November with some cold shots through December and January but the end of that month we had a lovely diving NW-SE low pressure, a linkup Azores and Scandi block and from then on for the month HLB just waltzed in and took over even with the troposperic vortex sat on the NW coast of Greenland initially.

    Not sure what I'm getting at really other than why did this occur then and not happen last winter (for example)? Every winter I find it fascinating trying to work out the drivers, the role they are playing on their own and in conjunction with others. For me, 'what is driving what' is the holy grail of weather forecasting.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Thornton Heath, Croydon
  • Location: Thornton Heath, Croydon
    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    Link to post in snow and ice thread as relevent here

    http://forum.netweat...20#entry2394143

    Edited by chionomaniac
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: E Lancs, 900ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, blizzards, cold, thunderstorms, frosts, fog, general extreme weather
  • Location: E Lancs, 900ft asl

    The 2 week MJO forecasts from the UKMO are headed that way as well Matt, though the GFS forecasts are not yet.

    And Matt do you know why the ECM final seasonal update a good three weeks before winter? If the strat changes significantly in those three weeks then it would make it invalid. On data presently I can (reluctantly) understand why the milder more zonal winter is signalled so far.

    Apologies, I think this is just a misinterpretation of my comments. What I mean is that the ECM seasonal model is obviously updated once a month and each update is then for the forth coming 4 months. So what I really mean is that the November ECM seasonal update will be the last one that covers Dec, Jan and Feb together. The Dec updated, in early Dec, will then cover Jan to April. So in essence the November update is the last one that captures the winter months before then progressing further.

    M.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    Is there any relation between AO and AAO (Antarctic Oscillation)?

    Current AO

    http://www.cpc.ncep....ex/ao.sprd2.gif

    Current AAO

    http://www.cpc.ncep....o/aao.sprd2.gif

    previous years

    http://climatechange...jpg?w=500&h=353

    Well

    Their goes my hope for November!

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    Link to post in snow and ice thread as relevent here

    http://forum.netweat...20#entry2394143

    Going to admit laziness here as not had time to do the trawling, has anyone looked through potential analog years for SAI ?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now
    • Settled, dry spell continues as daytime temperatures edge up a degree or so

      The risk of frost continues and it is chilly out of the sunshine but the fine, dry spell continues this week as the temperatures creep up, closer to average rather than below as they have been. Read the full update here

      Netweather forecasts
      Netweather forecasts
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      2021 Arctic Sea Ice Melt Season Outlook

      Samual Hayes explores the trends and the main influencing factors as the Arctic Sea Ice Melt season for 2021 gets underway. Read the full article

      BornFromTheVoid
      BornFromTheVoid
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      Cold waves hitting Europe continue to threaten growers, is there a link to climate change?

      Much of Europe, not just the UK, has experienced unseasonably cold weather since the Easter Weekend. A plunge of cold arctic air brought by northerly winds early last week brought several nights of frost and even snow across large swathes of Europe, followed by another wave of cold arctic air spreads across much of Europe this week. The frosts causing damage to new growth in vineyards and orchardsa0spurred on by a late March heatwave, the vineyards of France werea0particularly badly affected.

      Nick F
      Nick F
      Latest weather updates from Netweather 4
    • Recently Browsing   0 members

      No registered users viewing this page.

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...