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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013


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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    Posted Image

     

    Also a beginner myself but if the 384 charts did verify, (although deep FI, stratosphere is less chaotic to model as the trop so less prone to dramatic run to run swings as i understand it), then these charts look decent to me, im sure chiono will put us right soon and start the new thread almost certainly by the end of Oct and probably earlier, was just going to check the ECM strat forecasts but the site not working, here it is for future reference though, it updates very early each morning,

     

    http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/diag.php

     

     

    The problem with those meteociel is you cannot tell exactly what damage any warming has done to the stratospheric vortex though because they only show temperature and don't show heights.

     

    There is a site which shows GFS stratosphere heights right the way down from the very top (1hpa) to 100hpa but cannot remember it, that will be the one you need as we go into winter, someone will post it im sure.

     

    there seems to be more showing at 30hpa than 10hpa so maybe something working its way up?

     

    post-18233-0-55052800-1381702275_thumb.ppost-18233-0-35524400-1381702282_thumb.p

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    Steve whilst I agree to a certain extent, more especially with regards to the difficulty in forecasting exact placement of tropospheric synoptics (particularly with regard to the UK in the overall sch

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    there seems to be more showing at 30hpa than 10hpa so maybe something working its way up?

     

    Posted Imagenpst30.pngPosted Imagegfsnh-10-120.png

     

    Hopefully, lets hope all the sites are working soon and chiono comes back on to give us the expert opinion, from what i can see it looks good but chiono only starts usually posting regular at the end of October so we will wait and see.

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    Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

    Posted Image

     

    Also a beginner myself but if the 384 charts did verify, (although deep FI, stratosphere is less chaotic to model as the trop so less prone to dramatic run to run swings as i understand it), then these charts look decent to me, im sure chiono will put us right soon and start the new thread almost certainly by the end of Oct and probably earlier, was just going to check the ECM strat forecasts but the site not working, here it is for future reference though, it updates very early each morning,

     

    http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/diag.php

     

     

    The problem with those meteociel is you cannot tell exactly what damage any warming has done to the stratospheric vortex though because they only show temperature and don't show heights.

     

    There is a site which shows GFS stratosphere heights right the way down from the very top (1hpa) to 100hpa but cannot remember it, that will be the one you need as we go into winter, someone will post it im sure.

     

    Instant Weather Maps...Posted Image 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    The core very much to the east all the way up to 5mb.

     

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2013101312&var=HGT&lev=5mb&hour=300

     

     

     

    Its only when you go to the very top that its in a really tragic position.

     

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2013101312&var=HGT&lev=1mb&hour=300

     

     

     

    BUT. If you look at the chart for  84hrs later, displacement in process,

     

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2013101312&var=HGT&lev=1mb&hour=384

     

    These are only forecasts though and also i cannot help thinking that if it was really fantastic news that more knowledgeable people would be posting so best to wait for now.

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    The core very much to the east at 5mb.

     

    Posted Image

     

    Its only when you go to the very top that its in a really tragic position.

     

    Posted Image

    BUT. If you look 84hrs later, displacement in process,

     

    Posted Image

     

    These are only forecasts though and also i cannot help thinking that if it was really fantastic news that more knowledgeable people would be posting so best to wait for now.

     

    i see RECRETOS is on maybe he could tell us what we are looking at

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    Posted · Hidden by feb1991blizzard, October 13, 2013 - No reason given
    Hidden by feb1991blizzard, October 13, 2013 - No reason given
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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    Nice to see Wave 1 Activity present and ridges popping up throughout the day to day runs, currently the NW Pacific and Alaskan Ridge doing the business here.

     

    Brought this paper to mind which is relevant, lifted from the teleconnection paper thread, another feedback to consider and look out for.

     

    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrd.50289/abstract

     

     

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedford, 30m asl
  • Location: Bedford, 30m asl

    Beat me to it!

    Nice to see Wave 1 Activity present and ridges popping up throughout the day to day runs, currently the NW Pacific and Alaskan Ridge doing the business here.

     

    Brought this paper to mind which is relevant, lifted from the teleconnection paper thread, another feedback to consider and look out for.

     

    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrd.50289/abstract

     

    Great illustration coming up of what the NW Pacific/Alaskan ridge (generally leading to the GP-made-famous Aleutian low) does in terms of driving Wave 1 Activity through the stratosphere:

     

    Posted ImagePosted Image

     

    Watch out for the Alaskan Ridge/Aleutian Low combination to help drive Wave 1 activity (which in turn often leads to a displacement of the core of the vortex away from the pole), and then some form of Scandinavian/Siberian high to help drive Wave 2 (which often helps to create a split vortex). Last year we were lucky enough to see alternating phases of Wave 1 and Wave 2 activity eventually leading to the decimation of the vortex.

     

    SK

    Edited by snowking
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    Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

    Its been a while and I have nothing but good memories on this topic from last season. Posted Image Cant wait for the new debates to really kick off in the new thread. Posted Image

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Great post, I hope it isn't lost 'in last years thread'

     

     

    Are we not over due a new 2013/14 thread ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Hessen, GERMANY
  • Location: Hessen, GERMANY

    Great post, I hope it isn't lost 'in last years thread'

     

     

    Are we not over due a new 2013/14 thread ?

    I must agree with this too, given the activity that is kicking off may well have some bearing on how things pan out as we move towards the wintry months (and I'll include November in that just in case).  I don't know how easy it is to copy across some of the specialist and very helpful and informative posts by the likes of Chio, Recretos, snowking, Interitus, SM and a few others (those who read this thread know who I mean!) for this season 2013/14, but that would be a good start so that we have a good base of info for the current set-up moving onwards.  Keep up this great work!

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    post 2480 from chio said

     

    Will start a new thread in the next week or so for this years monitoring.

    =today, perhaps!!

    Edited by johnholmes
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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    post 2480 from chio said

     

    Will start a new thread in the next week or so for this years monitoring.

    =today, perhaps!!

    Yep.

     

    New thread here: http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78161-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20132014/

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