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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013


chionomaniac

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

Chino eurasion or northern?

Because in seeing some interesting northern blocking.

Is the baffin vortex likely to stay with in the canadian area?

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Chino eurasion or northern?

Because in seeing some interesting northern blocking.

Is the baffin vortex likely to stay with in the canadian area?

I think that the main centre of the vortex is likely to be migrate towards the Pacific sector so blocking migrating west towards Greenland?

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Posted
  • Location: Barnoldswick, Lancs, 500ft
  • Location: Barnoldswick, Lancs, 500ft

The shift in the PV towards northern Canada does show up nicely on the ECMWF charts as Chino highlighted and particularly visible on these sets of charts for the coming days;

http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ec.php?alert=1&level=30&forecast=all&lng=eng#fig3

In accordance with the ECMWF 32 day forecast, this October doesn't look like being an October of gales and increasingly deep lows at the moment at all. The variability is quite extensive in the ECMWF ensembles in particular at the moment with almost some unusual synoptics possible, whether this has some bearings on the forth coming winter, who knows, but a rapid progression towards a PV over Greenland and surrounding locations etc, bringing an increasingly autumnal zonal flow to the UK looks unlikely for the time being.

The ECMWF seasonal model will be updated in the next few days for October, something which is always worth a look. I'll summarise its output when it becomes available, but to be frank it's failed miserably at times over the last few years, so I'm not a big fan despite it's quite impressive stature in terms of resolution given recent upgrades over the least 6 to 12 months.

Cheers. Matt.

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Posted
  • Location: Barnoldswick, Lancs, 500ft
  • Location: Barnoldswick, Lancs, 500ft

As I highlighted on twitter, the ECM seasonal was updated for yesterday and is an unusual scenario with a strong +ve pressure anom to the W and SW of the UK, whilst there's a weak -ve pressure anom across Greenland. The pattern does lead to higher pressure affecting the UK at times and there is no major signal for low pressure to dominate to the north-west of the UK over the D/J/F period. That being said the pattern has a whole, does resemble more of a +NAO signal, with the pressure anoms in the wrong places for northern blocking.

The EUROSIP model is often updated each month around the 15th and this takes into account the UKMO, Meteo-France and the ECMWF seasonal info, so it'll be interesting to see whether there is any agreement from this, but personally I wouldn't read too much into this ECM update. It was miles away from picking up any of the blocked patterns in 09/10 and 10/11, so who knows....

M.

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Thanks Matt. Latest ozone map. Seems to me it's going in the right direction.

I am expecting some feedback and disturbances in the strat if we can get a tropospheric Greenland High in place before the end of the month.

No significant news regarding the current cooling. Interestingly, I was looking at the polar vortex mean zonal wind speeds before GP posted the significance in the model thread this morning. What I am looking for is disturbances from the troposphere upwards into the centre of the stratospheric vortex at this point which can cause disruptions before full cooling occurs.

Forecasts for zonal mean wind at 30 hPa are still around the 10m/s out to T+240......(we don't want that reaching 20m/s)

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

hi chiono, would this be the kind of thing you are looking for regarding PV disruptions?-

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

hi chiono, would this be the kind of thing you are looking for regarding PV disruptions?-

Posted Image

Yes, it's a start.

I would prefer to see any split and blocking more Greenland based as I feel that we will see better wave breaking into the stratosphere from there. Also any split that we see at 500 hPa we would like to see extend up into the stratosphere towards the 50 hPa level and beyond - that will help towards future feedback.,

Edited by chionomaniac
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

As I highlighted on twitter, the ECM seasonal was updated for yesterday and is an unusual scenario with a strong +ve pressure anom to the W and SW of the UK, whilst there's a weak -ve pressure anom across Greenland. The pattern does lead to higher pressure affecting the UK at times and there is no major signal for low pressure to dominate to the north-west of the UK over the D/J/F period. That being said the pattern has a whole, does resemble more of a +NAO signal, with the pressure anoms in the wrong places for northern blocking.

The EUROSIP model is often updated each month around the 15th and this takes into account the UKMO, Meteo-France and the ECMWF seasonal info, so it'll be interesting to see whether there is any agreement from this, but personally I wouldn't read too much into this ECM update. It was miles away from picking up any of the blocked patterns in 09/10 and 10/11, so who knows....

M.

I think the core of warm SST anomalies now south of Greenland could be an indicator of that type of pressure anomaly IF they are that important.

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Todays update:

The cooling continues in the stratosphere with no warming episodes on the cards.

However, an increase in total ozone levels is forecast by day 5 mainly in the mid stratosphere towards the west Atlantic sector.

Current

post-4523-0-62045800-1349861028_thumb.gi

Day 5

post-4523-0-45267200-1349860960_thumb.gi

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Posted
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level

This thread is fascinating, I remember coming on here daily last Winter to see if there was any good news on the horizon.

Seemed that last Winter (and pardon my lack of education), that there were a few attempts of a warming event, but that they never really got going and didn't get down far enough , or to the right 'levels' within ? the stratosphere , and the polar worm hole vortex , whirlpool or whatever it's called, seemed to want to spin too fast or something like that.

In addition I think there was some waves or something that didn't turn into a tsunami ..anyway...I'll be looking forward to pondering over here this Winter daily to see if the air has heated over the pole, to see if the worm hole starts breaking and to see if we might get a giant wave breaking event or something which will give us loads of cold and snow :-)

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

Yes, it's a start.

I would prefer to see any split and blocking more Greenland based as I feel that we will see better wave breaking into the stratosphere from there. Also any split that we see at 500 hPa we would like to see extend up into the stratosphere towards the 50 hPa level and beyond - that will help towards future feedback.,

How about this then?

Complete FI chart from the 06z operational of course,but worth showing for

the strength of the PV which i would describe as "somewhat dis-organised" Posted Image

edit. Just noticed that you can now get 500mb anomaly charts with the individual

gfs run's

Edited by Cloud 10
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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Something that has caught my eye besides the NH polar vortex disruption, is that the SH appears to be undergoing some kind of warming event. They are as rare as hens teeth there!

The zonal winds are dramatically reduced and spring warming is almost at record levels for this time of year.

Could the BDC be working in overdrive for the southern hemisphere?

GP - when you look in have you any thoughts?

Edited by chionomaniac
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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

Something that has caught my eye besides the NH polar vortex disruption, is that the SH appears to be undergoing some kind of warming event. They are as rare as hens teeth there!

The zonal winds are dramatically reduced and spring warming is almost at record levels for this time of year.

Could the BDC be working in overdrive for the southern hemisphere?

GP - when you look in have you any thoughts?

Is this good news for us further down the line Chino?

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Posted
  • Location: Barnet/south Herts border 130m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms & all extreme weather
  • Location: Barnet/south Herts border 130m asl

Something that has caught my eye besides the NH polar vortex disruption, is that the SH appears to be undergoing some kind of warming event. They are as rare as hens teeth there!

It seems that the last - and first ever recorded - major warming in the SH was at the end of September 2002. Lots of info on that event at this link...

http://www.atmosp.physics.utoronto.ca/SPARC/News20/20_Baldwin.html

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

It seems that the last - and first ever recorded - major warming in the SH was at the end of September 2002. Lots of info on that event at this link...

http://www.atmosp.ph...20_Baldwin.html

Yes - SS the most studied SSW in history that one!

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Posted
  • Location: Barnet/south Herts border 130m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms & all extreme weather
  • Location: Barnet/south Herts border 130m asl

Yes - SS the most studied SSW in history that one!

Doesn't seem to be much evidence of any bearing on the nh. But interesting nonetheless

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Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl

Tropical stratosphere continues to cool significantly at the 30mB level:

http://www.cpc.ncep....re/30mb2525.gif

Even higher up the warming trend has now receded somewhat:

http://www.cpc.ncep....re/01mb2525.gif

I did take a quick look through the archives and failed to find any examples of a cold tropical stratosphere with near average polar strat. However, one thing that was very noticeable was that there was very rarely a situation where a cool tropical stratosphere didn't occur at the same time as a warmer polar stratosphere. Presumably this is something to do with enhanced BDC affecting both these regions as a result of ozone transportation from one to the other.

Though given the recent postings about the SSW in the southern hemisphere at present, perhaps this will turn out to be one of those occasions where by we end up with a cooler tropical stratosphere without much of a change in the northern polar stratosphere if indeed the BDC has only transported o-zone southwards.

This can be seen in 2002:

http://www.cpc.ncep....mb6590_2002.gif - S Hemisphere @ 30hPa

http://www.cpc.ncep....mb2525_2002.gif - Tropical Strat @ 30hPa

That said, its still early october...

Edited by snowking
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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

The BDC is somewhat driven and enhanced by planetary waves and I now suspect that the SH increase in ozone compared to the NH has been aided by strong wave number 1 activity over the last few months across the southern hemisphere stratosphere.

post-4523-0-49383000-1349901514_thumb.gi

Perhaps in the coming months we will see an increase in the NH wave activity which will assist the transport of ozone to the Northern polar stratosphere. So far there has been little wave activity to assist this, but with the tropospheric wave pattern forecast, I suspect that this ozone transport will increase as these waves interact with the NH polar stratosphere.

Edit SNAP GP - we must have been writing the same conclusion at the same time HA!

Edited by chionomaniac
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Posted
  • Location: Barnoldswick, Lancs, 500ft
  • Location: Barnoldswick, Lancs, 500ft

Just a quick one, but some of the deterministic models at the moment if it were 4 to 6 weeks down the line, really would be pretty decent to say the least!...Take the 00Z ECMWF at 216hrs for example;

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif

Certainly no signs of a rapid development of a PV to the N or NW of the UK any time soon, and despite the outlook being unsettled across the UK, this doesn't take away the fact that northern blocking looks to be noteworthy in the next 7 to 10 days which is quite interesting with a particularly southerly tracking jet developing.

Clearly whether this trend will continue as we move deeper into autumn or at least re-develops further down the line is the $64,000 question...

M.

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands

Over seas they are also interested in the stratosphere. Please take a look over here http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/34743-winter-2012-2013/page__st__2590

I have a question based on the following:

'Of course there are other factors, but the stratospheric correlation is the strongest I've seen to date, except perhaps ENSO (depending on location). Almost all cold stratospheres in November average +AO for Dec-Jan. You can always find exceptions.

As a reminder of how strong this correlation is, for the 10 coldest Nov+Dec stratospheres, there has NEVER been an AO below -.2. 8/10 had a +AO, 7 strongly +AO, and the AO averaged 2.81 higher than following the 10 warmest stratospheres. A cold stratosphere is essentially a guarantee of a that you will not get a -AO, and nearly a guarantee of a significantly +AO.

It is the November and December stratosphere temperatures that matter the most. Also, it is really not the whole stratosphere that should be cold. A +AO is usually preceded by a warm stratosphere over Greenland. ' http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/34743-winter-2012-2013/page__st__2590#entry1782546

And

'There has never been a significantly -AO January following a top 10 cold stratosphere.

November stratosphere

-The December AO was 1.09 higher following the 10 coldest than the 10 warmest.

-The January AO was 1.75 higher following the 10 coldest than the 10 warmest.

-The December AO was .63 higher following cooler than average than warmer than average

-The January AO was 1.71 higher following cooler than average than warmer than average

November + December stratosphere

-The December AO was 1.82 higher following the 10 coldest than the 10 warmest

-The January AO was 2.81 higher following the 10 coldest than the 10 warmest

-The December AO was .72 higher following cooler than average than warmer than average

-The January AO was 1.41 higher following cooler than average than warmer than average

- 8/10 coldest had +AO Dec, only 1 below -.1

- 8/10 coldest had +AO Jan, none below -.2

-9/10 warmest had -AO Dec, none above +.2

-9/10 warmest had -AO Jan, none above +.3'

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/24854-and-we-begin-part-deux/page__st__385#entry1127279

I wonder is this true?

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Over seas they are also interested in the stratosphere. Please take a look over here http://www.americanw.../page__st__2590

I have a question based on the following:

'Of course there are other factors, but the stratospheric correlation is the strongest I've seen to date, except perhaps ENSO (depending on location). Almost all cold stratospheres in November average +AO for Dec-Jan. You can always find exceptions.

As a reminder of how strong this correlation is, for the 10 coldest Nov+Dec stratospheres, there has NEVER been an AO below -.2. 8/10 had a +AO, 7 strongly +AO, and the AO averaged 2.81 higher than following the 10 warmest stratospheres. A cold stratosphere is essentially a guarantee of a that you will not get a -AO, and nearly a guarantee of a significantly +AO.

It is the November and December stratosphere temperatures that matter the most. Also, it is really not the whole stratosphere that should be cold. A +AO is usually preceded by a warm stratosphere over Greenland. ' http://www.americanw...90#entry1782546

And

'There has never been a significantly -AO January following a top 10 cold stratosphere.

A good post thanks Seb.

I keep an eye on the Americans all the time!

I have highlighted one quote in your post because ultimately it was the crux of last years early winter forecast, and one that I repeated many times but without the research you have done.

I am at work but will look forward to digesting the figures more, later this evening.

c

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

I didn't do the research. Someone who calls himself skiervermont did Posted Image

Yes thanks for that though Sebastian.It does back up what many of us have thought about a colder than normal Strato. almost certainly wrecking the chances of sustainable Northern Blocking.

This is when us cold lovers anxiously scan the daily Straosphere updates for signs of any SSW.If you recall we had one late in the Winter last year bringing the cold spell in February for much of Europe.

This is a good reason for cold lovers to contain their anticipation of a cold Winter because we see some Arctic Height anomolies now.

These can quickly disappear if the Stratosphere cools below the norm.come November.

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