Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013

[lorenzo]

Yes, this is true, especially in a regional sense. Easterly wind anomalies basically slow the Earth down, causing +AAM to be transferred from the solid Earth to the air. In the case of mountain ranges, a surface low anomaly to the west of it (and high to the east) will cause a net easterly over the mountain range and slow the Earth even further than if it were just the mountain range alone. So a negative frictional torque and a positive mountain torque contribute to regional +AAM anomalies.

 

The correlation with the AO is actually not so clear-cut; and, in fact, the +MT showed a +AO tendency in some research. This is because the +MT increases the net Mid Latitude westerlies over time, intensifying the jet and PV. There exists an internal AAM cycle across the Mid Latitudes that occasionally is independent of the tropical source to mid latitude sink cycle we are accustomed to (tropical forcing). The internal cycle is simply mid latitude (mainly over the ocean) frictional sinks eating the momentum produced by the mountains in the same latitude-belt. So, not all +MT events are created equal and not all will occur with, and/or lead to, a +GLAAM/meridional flow.

 

I hope this helped.

 

Thanks Anthony, another great post helps my understanding greatly, what is your read on the GWO just now a very flat, stuck, orbit at present, any predictions for October > November. The 90 day plot shows it pulling out of the low AAM base state into the origin.

 

The tendency chart has threatened to establish jets off and on but never quite got there. Pacific Jet thinking about it and has shown some 200kt pulses recently, but never actually making it round the hemisphere to the Atlantic.

 

Mountain Torques also taking a dip. All contributing to what is quite a settled and dormant outlook at present. Frictional Torque also negative. What should we looking for to see these kick up a bit?

 

[lorenzo]

This is about as geeky as it gets... ! An interesting visualisation of the QBO over time...

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_-QlDmicIw

 

[lorenzo]

This season will be great given the recognition via Met Office last winter to the influence of the strat. Am biased but credit Chiono fully with this catapult to 'mainstream' and look forward to this seasons new thread. Hell even Steves good lady was asking what the strat was doing !

 

Meanwhile, here are some of the charts that may be around for the coming months before things really get going, and EP Flux physics began scrambling our heads, and let's hope the Vortex if it does get going does so somewhere favourable, and if it is a cat on a hot tin roof again we are in for a good season on unpredictability with splits and displacements galore.

 

Not a lot to read from the 10hpa and 30hpa charts at present, a minor mild blip, other than that right on the line.

 

All quiet on the eastern front.

 

At 100 hpa, the most unreliable of reliables, sees this at 120 hrs, perhaps with some bearing on the Atlantic.

 

 

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

This season will be great given the recognition via Met Office last winter to the influence of the strat. Am biased but credit Chiono fully with this catapult to 'mainstream' and look forward to this seasons new thread. Hell even Steves good lady was asking what the strat was doing !

 

Meanwhile, here are some of the charts that may be around for the coming months before things really get going, and EP Flux physics began scrambling our heads, and let's hope the Vortex if it does get going does so somewhere favourable, and if it is a cat on a hot tin roof again we are in for a good season on unpredictability with splits and displacements galore.

 

Not a lot to read from the 10hpa and 30hpa charts at present, a minor mild blip, other than that right on the line.

pole10_nh.gifpole30_nh.gif

 

All quiet on the eastern front.

ecmwfpv475f240.gif

 

At 100 hpa, the most unreliable of reliables, sees this at 120 hrs, perhaps with some bearing on the Atlantic.

ecmwf100f120.gif

 

Yes, last year was the first year I started to understand what was going on, not scientifically but I can at least usually read some of the charts  now and know if they are good or bad (whether tropospheric Northern latitude blocking is likely to occur), and all thanks to chiono.

 

Not forgetting you, Stewart and a good few others though of course.

Edited October 4, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[Interitus]

This is interesting, been showing in FI for a few runs - http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2013100606-10-384.png?6

[chionomaniac]

This is interesting, been showing in FI for a few runs - http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2013100606-10-384.png?6

 

Will start a new thread in the next week or so for this years monitoring.

 

But that is interesting. I have to say that there is a certain pattern that I am hoping to see this autumn and from this we may be able to project a winter stratospheric pattern.

 

Edit - and thanks for Tony and feb1991blizzards kind words. It is good to see that most now realise how important that the strat pattern is in dictating the tropospheric patterns.

Edited October 6, 2013 by chionomaniac

[SMU]

Ive lost it- can someone punt up the link to the zonal wind anomaly- V height

 

thanks in advance

S

Edited October 6, 2013 by Steve Murr

[chionomaniac]

Here is the cpc one, Steve,

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_UGRD_ANOM_ALL_NH_2013.gif

 

and the ECM zonal wind forecasts

 

http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/eczm.php?alert=1&forecast=all&var=u&lng=eng

[SMU]

That's the One for the ECM-

 

there used to be a numerical one as well in terms of M/S but the ECM is good-

[cooling climate]

 

Ive lost it- can someone punt up the link to the zonal wind anomaly- V height thanks in advanceS

Earlier this year you posted a very good link to the global weather systemsGWO global wind oscillations etc but the link for me soon stopped working.Could you post this again please.

[SMU]

I don't really have any links any more they just come to me in the winter-

S

[ZONE 51]

 Earlier this year you posted a very good link to the global weather systemsGWO global wind oscillations etc but the link for me soon stopped working.Could you post this again please.

CC, this one might be of interest to you (or others)

http://www.globalweathersystems.com/Climatology.htm

 

http://governmentshutdown.noaa.gov/ (when it's back on!...)

Edited October 7, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

CC not sure if that is the exact link you require but I searched "global weather systems GWO global wind oscillations" and plenty of websites there that might be of interest

Edited October 7, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[cooling climate]

Cheers for the response Steve and Electricsnowstorm.

I came across the link you provided Electricsnowstorm while

trying to find the link posted by Steve but thanks again.

Edited October 7, 2013 by cooling climate

[Gowon]

 

Do we usually get this warming in autumn, chionomaniac/Interitus? It's still showing on GFS.

 

 

Edited October 10, 2013 by Vivian

[chionomaniac]

No, It's a good thing all things considered. Anything that can interupt a straightforward cooling of the autumnal strat could be beneficial. Worth keeping an eye on - Late November cold anyone?

 

Edit - just as aside to this is that anyone who monitors the strat regularly will know that there is often some sort of degree of warming in FI runs and that we will need to link them up to possible MT / wave breaking events this winter to determine which ones are more likely to come to fruition.

Edited October 10, 2013 by chionomaniac

[Interitus]

The meteociel charts showed something similar towards the end of October last year over southern Siberia, but the position and orientation didn't put the vortex under as much stress as some of the recent runs.

November SSW are quite rare but occurred on 30/11/1958, 27/11/1968, 27/11/1979 and 23/11/1996 so maybe one is due.

[Gavin Hannah]

Could be related to the extensive snow cover over siberia?

[Interitus]

From the ECM Berlin charts it looks like some wave 1 activity working down from the higher stratosphere rather than related to ground level.

[Gavin Hannah]

From the ECM Berlin charts it looks like some wave 1 activity working down from the higher stratosphere rather than related to ground level.

 

 

Fair enough, it can't be coincidental that the warming is over an area of land mass that's experiencing an above average snow cover for the time of year though? Can it?

[Suburban Streamer]

we will need to link them up to possible MT / wave breaking events this winter

 

apart from the noaa PSD maproom link, is there anywhere else to monitor MT events?

Edited October 10, 2013 by Suburban Streamer

[cooling climate]

 

From the ECM Berlin charts it looks like some wave 1 activity working down from the higher stratosphere rather than related to ground level.

The way I understand it is the wave breaking from MT's reach theupper stratosphere then work their way down(propagation).Although having said that they can break at differing heights inthe stratosphere.

[feb1991blizzard]

Obviously this chart is deep FI but at no point during the run does the 30mb temperature looks like getting colder and ends up warmer (and with the vortex still nowhere near the real danger zone) at a time when it should be cooling off or am I missing something??

 

 

 

 

 

[Buriedundersnow]

Obviously this chart is deep FI but at no point during the run does the 30mb temperature looks like getting colder and ends up warmer (and with the vortex still nowhere near the real danger zone) at a time when it should be cooling off or am I missing something??

 

 

 

 

 

 

I have been keeping a little eye on the strat  aswell on meteociel at the 10hpa level and there has been a slight warming showing i have no idea if its anything as just started looking at strat last winter but wondered if there was anything in it or is it a yearly natural thing that takes place

 

[feb1991blizzard]

I have been keeping a little eye on the strat  aswell on meteociel at the 10hpa level and there has been a slight warming showing i have no idea if its anything as just started looking at strat last winter but wondered if there was anything in it or is it a yearly natural thing that takes place

 

gfsnh-10-168.png

 

 

Also a beginner myself but if the 384 charts did verify, (although deep FI, stratosphere is less chaotic to model as the trop so less prone to dramatic run to run swings as i understand it), then these charts look decent to me, im sure chiono will put us right soon and start the new thread almost certainly by the end of Oct and probably earlier, was just going to check the ECM strat forecasts but the site not working, here it is for future reference though, it updates very early each morning,

 

http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/diag.php

 

 

The problem with those meteociel is you cannot tell exactly what damage any warming has done to the stratospheric vortex though because they only show temperature and don't show heights.

 

There is a site which shows GFS stratosphere heights right the way down from the very top (1hpa) to 100hpa but cannot remember it, that will be the one you need as we go into winter, someone will post it im sure.

Edited October 13, 2013 by feb1991blizzard