Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013

[Summer Sun]

Can some one please tell me what a warm Stratosphere and cold Stratosphere means for the UK's weather during winter?

[johnholmes]

SS I suggest you read the opening post from last winter from chio-it is very complex but well worth reading all his links and may help you to slowly understand what the link is at times between the Stratosphere and where we live.

[syed2878]

hey thanks for the links crikey.

[lorenzo]

We had some interesting atmospheric wave action in the sth Hemisphere this winter which is stillunderway

 

I had taken some notes if anyone is interested.

 

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1188254/Stratospheric_sudden_warmings_#Post1188254

 

 

http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/2013/08/16/another-stratospheric-warming-event-ssw-in-the-southern-hemisphere-august-2013/

 

----------------------------------------------------

 

BTW.. Stratospheric warming is commencing at 10mb since the 29th Aug2013 just Nth of Alaska..

 

Hey what do you think of our waves orbiting the south pole atm!!

 Awesome animation here. The crests are warmings , the troughs are cooler anomlaies.

Is there a stratosphere experts who could fill me in one what's happening here.. Thanks..

 

source of animation

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com.au/2013/03/2013-official-severe-weather-outlook.html

 

 

 

 

Crikey, thanks for the post and the links, after a summer hibernation here, we will all be out of our slumber soon and reading over papers in Autumn looking ahead to winter.

 

Great link to Karen Labitzke page , Thank You. Got some reading bookmarked now. Here is one back http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/#monit_sh

 

 

Certainly looking lively for the SH at present ! That GWO pattern has been insane this summer.

Edited September 3, 2013 by lorenzo

[crikey]

Hey.. Great to feel useful.

Well its the end of winter here of course in the SH. Those waves have not had as much impact on the mainland as l thought might happen although the waves have got larger since July. So lets see what the spring pattern here brings

The wave pattern has given new Zealand its warmest winter with positive high pressure anomaly and.. snow to brazil.  . The Australian mainland has been anomalously warm  with lots of high pressure

The SAM /AAO has been positive all year with just occasional negative dips recently.

There has been some deep lows in the southern ocean but really the affect of these waves seems to have been largely south of the mainland in the sub polar region..

Thanks for your interest and useful link. Cheers. I'll drop by if l find anything of interest...

 

BTW..... what is GWO?

Edited September 4, 2013 by crikey

[Cheshire Freeze]

I think GP mentioned a see-saw analogy last year. With any luck a warming stratosphere will be triggered in the NH as we approach winter. It would be the best possible outcome we could wish to see.

[Relativistic]

Crikey, GWO stands for Global Wind Oscillation. I can't really tell you much more than that I'm afraid! Some of the more knowledgable on here may be able to tell you more.

Edited September 4, 2013 by 22nov10blast

[Frozen Britain]

The QBO is relevant to the state of the stratospheric vortex in winter, so thought I would post this comment from TWO:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/yaf_postsm530438_Winter-2013-14-Prospects-and-Forecasts.aspx#post530438

[Summer Sun]

The QBO is relevant to the state of the stratospheric vortex in winter, so thought I would post this comment from TWO:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/yaf_postsm530438_Winter-2013-14-Prospects-and-Forecasts.aspx#post530438

 

Yeah I saw that as well I posted it in the winter thread

[Methuselah]

The QBO is relevant to the state of the stratospheric vortex in winter, so thought I would post this comment from TWO:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/yaf_postsm530438_Winter-2013-14-Prospects-and-Forecasts.aspx#post530438

Thanks for that FB...But, do note the following post? 

[tcc]

Yes the QBO is just one part, there are plenty of other parts of the jigsaw!

What I'll be looking for is how much Ozone gets transported to Northern latitudes this Autumn, I believe this will indicate to how Winter starts. Loads of ozone transported north will mean a warmer Strat -> less of of a cold Strat -> less chance of a strong PV, compared to if little Ozone moved then the opposite happening.

Last Autumn we missed out on a huge amount of Ozone as it went south, which left little if any heading north, this meant the Strat started off colder which in turn helped a strong PV to develop.

Again only part of the jigsaw, however an important piece I think.

[Frozen Britain]

In comparison with the winter of 2010/11, we had a strong La Nina. This year, we have a possible weak El Nino.

We all know that December was cold, then mild after Christmas. The cold never returned.

[snowking]

Thought I would drop some of my own preliminary thoughts in here for now (bearing in mind these are preliminary).

 

First of all lets get straight to the meat of things...SSW?

 

Well...I know Ed's early thoughts on this are leaning towards a potential February MMW, and he is without a doubt the expert in this field. My own thoughts differ slightly from this, and this difference will likely be explained by a difference in composite years chosen.

 

For a very preliminary idea of things from my current chosen composite years, here's a breakdown of the 30mb temperature anomaly across the three vital months:

 

 

As we see there the biggest chance according to my composite years of an SSW/MMW would appear to be in January - which actually fits in quite nicely with my thoughts in general for the winter at this early stage, with the two main thrusts of cold coming in mid January (initial SSW response?) and then through much of February.

 

Interestingly though, despite my thoughts that the Westerly QBO is likely to lead to a strong vortex through December until we see some form of warming, if we roll back that 30mb anomaly to November:

 

 

If we see that sort of pattern reflected towards the surface in November, with the main thrust of the early season vortex displaced towards the US sector, it could well lead to the holy grail for early season wave activity - with a potential Siberian/Scandi high to drive wave 2 activity, and the potential Aleutian low to drive wave 1 activity.

 

Are there any early caveats to the idea of some sort of stratospheric warming this winter? Well there is one that I am a little concerned about, based around the 2006 Labitzke et al. paper on the relationship between the 11-year solar cycle and the QBO. It is largely from this paper that the idea of solar maximum conditions and a Westerly QBO leading to a higher likelihood of SSW events originates. However as we can see from this graph, taken from the paper:

 

 

The criteria set out for solar maximum conditions is a solar flux greater than 150 units. Given the unusually quiet solar cycle 24 so far, current flux levels are around 92 units, having peaked at around 132 units last month. In the data analysed here (1942-2006, some of which was reconstructed), there has not been an MMW event with a solar flux value of any less than 125 units under Westerly QBO conditions.

 

However, and this is a big however....65 or so years of data is, in the grand scheme of things, a very small sample size - something for which the study has come in to criticism for already, although unfortunately given the relatively small range of accurately recorded data for both QBO and Solar Flux (only stretching back in to the 1950's), it was not really an avoidable criticism. Now from that we can ascertain a potential flaw...

 

Thus far, we do not have an example of a Westerly QBO under solar maximum conditions during a much quieter 11 year cycle, with the last quieter cycle having been back in the early 1900's. Therefore, it could be surmised that the conditions that require a 'solar maximum' definition might not actually be reliant upon solar flux, but perhaps instead on the sun's magnetic field lines reaching maximum distortion, owing to the magnetic differences between the poles and the equator on the sun - in other words, it doesn't matter what level of solar flux is observed, its actually defined by the magnetic changes on the surface of the sun that occur every 11 years.

 

Therefore, this year could prove to be really rather useful to test such a hypothesis.

 

So then in summary, my expectation is for an MMW in January based upon my preliminary composite years (taken from the Autumn forecast) - these years are still very much open to change, and a good test of these composite years will be October, not only for the SAI, but also because my composite years point towards a rather settled month and so if we do indeed see extensive periods of high pressure this would suggest to me that the composite years are well on track.

 

SK

 

 

[SMU]

If you throw the Ice cover min & recent snow cover index rate of change into the mix- you could almost argue there are no analogues....

 

s

[chionomaniac]

Interesting thoughts sk. 

 

As ever, your projection composite depends on the analogue years that you choose. I am with you in the assertion that we may not achieve a SSW at all this year - certainly the west QBO and lowish solar flux do not normally 'produce' and  it will be interesting to see if the magnetic field assists with your hypothesis. If we are to achieve a SSW then I suspect that this will occur in early Feb but at this point would include late January in any potential timeframe at this point.

 

Interestingly, the analogue composite that you produce for January does not suggest a SSW at all! If anything the analogue suggests a displacement of the polar vortex (  I know that you know this but it is worth pointing out once again that the anomaly shown should not be confused with the actual heights) and that this displacement does not look like creating a SSW at all - perhaps that should be where the safer money is placed currently. My analogue for chosen years for February is completely red with two cores right over the pole.

 

But a lot may change before winter and with we will need to keep a close eye on both the late autumnal stratospheric conditions as well as the rate of continental snow cover growth during Oct. I think that this will have a bearing on the likelhood of a SSW. As ever it will be another year to study the strat and increase our knowledge a little more.

Edited September 14, 2013 by chionomaniac

[John Badrick]

The SSW was hot topic last year, even got to BBC, I reckon QBO will be flavour of the month this year and a very low solar max is a new spanner in the works, not seen in modern science

[sebastiaan1973]

Chio et al, not only we do have a W QBO, low solar activity but also a non-ENSO winter. http://www.columbia.edu/~lmp/paps/butler+polvani-GRL-2011.pdf

In this article they write the chance for a SSW is twice as high in a ENSO-winter. Be it La Nina of El Nino.

 

 

 

[chionomaniac]

Yes. I know about that one thanks Sebastiaan. Polvani has researched into this a lot. If we are to receive rapid snow cover in October can the muted ENSO signal be overridden? There's the question.

[johnholmes]

It continues to seem that the more we know the less we understand if that makes sense. It really is a fascinating part of meteorology and something I have become aware of only over the last 2-3 years. I look forward to trying to understand more this winter from those of you who seem to have a grasp of the complexities involved.

[UV-RAY]

It continues to seem that the more we know the less we understand if that makes sense. It really is a fascinating part of meteorology and something I have become aware of only over the last 2-3 years. I look forward to trying to understand more this winter from those of you who seem to have a grasp of the complexities involved.

My sentiments also John, I would also add  UV output to the list of unknowns as we have barely scratched the surface of this forcing  and it's importance.

[lorenzo]

Yes. I know about that one thanks Sebastiaan. Polvani has researched into this a lot. If we are to receive rapid snow cover in October can the muted ENSO signal be overridden? There's the question.

 

Yep and this seems to be something the latest Cohen paper alludes to, the mode created via the Warm Arctic / Cold Continent set up increasing moisture, leading to greater Snow Advance SAI, leading to the negative AO. It almost puts ENSO vs AO. - things continue to get more interesting !

[bluearmy]

this is the best thread on the forum. i suspect that we will have many 'informed' non forum visitors to it, once the new one is up and running for 2013/2014.  to keep it tidy, can i ask if we can have a separate strat thread for non tech queries/comments. if anyone feels the 'non tech post' requires/deserves an in depth reply, it can be copied over.  last year, i avoided making some postings as i felt it would devalue the content of the thread.  thoughts ?

[Cheshire Freeze]

It is a great thread. What is bemusing though is that some on t'other side still seem to scoff at the thought of the stratosphere affecting the trop. I think this rather unfairly devalues Chiono's work and other studies on the subject.

[chionomaniac]

this is the best thread on the forum. i suspect that we will have many 'informed' non forum visitors to it, once the new one is up and running for 2013/2014.  to keep it tidy, can i ask if we can have a separate strat thread for non tech queries/comments. if anyone feels the 'non tech post' requires/deserves an in depth reply, it can be copied over.  last year, i avoided making some postings as i felt it would devalue the content of the thread.  thoughts ?

Thanks, Nick. At present I don't personally see the need for two threads as long as the posts are relevent to the topic then that is fine. I will probably start a new thread mid Oct.

 

It is a great thread. What is bemusing though is that some on t'other side still seem to scoff at the thought of the stratosphere affecting the trop. I think this rather unfairly devalues Chiono's work and other studies on the subject.

Thanks CC. I now see the strat and trop as two dancers moving in harmony throughout the winter. If one takes the lead, the other follows and vice versa.

[bluearmy]

It is a great thread. What is bemusing though is that some on t'other side still seem to scoff at the thought of the stratosphere affecting the trop. I think this rather unfairly devalues Chiono's work and other studies on the subject.

 

it isn't so long ago that some thought the earth t'was flat crewe ! 

 

to be fair, despite our lack of resource, this is fairly 'cutting edge' stuff and as such, will not be embraced by all (yet)