Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013

[Essan]

I know nothing about SSW - so peaase excuse my ignorance. But could someone please confirm the current state and whether additional SSW is occurring or likely to occur in the next few days. A person of my 'acquaintance' has suggested that

1. Around 16/17/18/19th we expect the red region of the warmed stratosphere in the monitor/ standard projection link below to expand / darken (warm) rapidly.

Standard dynamic moving model smoothed record and projections of 30mb temps

This shows temp of Stratosphere: http://twitpic.com/bsk4gb/full There are various measures around. WeatherAction forecast was issued Jan3, before model forecasts for the dates of WeatherAction SSWs.

OBSERVED: The flic (which includes short time ahead projections) shows a ‘step like’ expansion and darkening over Asia around 16-18^th FORECAST EXCELLENTLY CONFIRMED.

Other measures of SSWs confirm this rapid growth. This SSW is a record breaker in observed stratospheric warming terms already.

and it would be rather useful for me to know which end of his body he's talking out of

[beng]

I know nothing about SSW - so peaase excuse my ignorance. But could someone please confirm the current state and whether additional SSW is occurring or likely to occur in the next few days. A person of my 'acquaintance' has suggested that

and it would be rather useful for me to know which end of his body he's talking out of

As weathermaster posted on the previous page, there is another warming pulse just possibly beginning - (also see below)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_JFM_NH_2013.gif

Remains to be seen how strong this is though.

Piers may well have nailed this weekend's weather though in his January forecast - we'll have to wait until the 22nd to know for sure. So for this weekend at least he's probably talking out the top end of his body

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

As weathermaster posted on the previous page, there is another warming pulse just possibly beginning - (also see below)

http://www.cpc.ncep....JFM_NH_2013.gif

Remains to be seen how strong this is though.

Piers may well have nailed this weekend's weather though in his January forecast - we'll have to wait until the 22nd to know for sure. So for this weekend at least he's probably talking out the top end of his body

That will be interesting to see if that pulse develops quickly into something, cheers Beng

BFTP

[Essan]

As weathermaster posted on the previous page, there is another warming pulse just possibly beginning - (also see below)

http://www.cpc.ncep....JFM_NH_2013.gif

Remains to be seen how strong this is though.

Piers may well have nailed this weekend's weather though in his January forecast - we'll have to wait until the 22nd to know for sure. So for this weekend at least he's probably talking out the top end of his body

Cheers

As for PC - he reminds me a famous Morecombe and Wise sketch: "I predicted all the right weather, just not for the right reasons"

[Interitus]

Still appears to be plenty of activity in the middle to lower stratosphere, but the NWP forecasts are showing the reformation of the vortex in the highest levels.

[Snowy Liverpool]

Good agreement on the AO to shoot up in around 7-10 days. Statosphere forecasts also suggest the polar stratosphere to cool down to average for this time of year. I always thought there was a considerable lag phase between the two events, but the AO at tropospheric level seems to be following the stratospheric conditions at a lag phase of just a few days and it's beginning to show in the models e.g. some going for a breakdown of cold as early as 6-7 days away. Is it really going to be this quick?

[chionomaniac]

Good agreement on the AO to shoot up in around 7-10 days. Statosphere forecasts also suggest the polar stratosphere to cool down to average for this time of year. I always thought there was a considerable lag phase between the two events, but the AO at tropospheric level seems to be following the stratospheric conditions at a lag phase of just a few days and it's beginning to show in the models e.g. some going for a breakdown of cold as early as 6-7 days away. Is it really going to be this quick?

In one word, no.

You are misreading the tropospheric models struggling with the positioning of the Canadian vortex with what is occurring at the top of the stratosphere and that won't affect the troposphere for a long time yet!

Another mention of SSW on the One Show I see!

[chionomaniac]

I know nothing about SSW - so peaase excuse my ignorance. But could someone please confirm the current state and whether additional SSW is occurring or likely to occur in the next few days. A person of my 'acquaintance' has suggested that

and it would be rather useful for me to know which end of his body he's talking out of

Not the top end.

[lorenzo]

John Hammond on bbc news channel 21:28 this evening. Everyone should watch this and get it to top played vid. on beeb site.

Excellent.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21094288

[Rustynailer]

By definition the British Isles would be in Ice age if cold spells did not end.

Regarding this one, i think if it were mentioned in folk law then it would have to go on for at least 6 weeks.

[MR EXTREMES]

clearly i know this is way out in the depths but does this simply say that the strat is restrengthening offering us a more typical zonal febuary?

and has our ssw event now past its peak and roughly how long do these effects last ?

was this strat event a better event if compaired with 09/10 event that caused the long cold spell ?

sorry because im increasingly becoming rather addicted to the strats effects many thanks.

[MattH]

Morning...

This signal for our +ve pressure anom to the N and NE of the UK at present day and in recent days does decline and disappear within a weeks time or thereabouts and this set of charts does show this;

http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ec.php?alert=1&level=100&forecast=all&lng=eng#fig2

The lobe of vorticity and ULL that has been sat over NE Canada has been persistent. Clearly it is producing a noteworthy amount of deep cold across E and NE Canada which is, without question, fueling the jet stream within the Central and W Atlantic, but clearly our block has so far won the battle. However, I do believe that change is on the way and within a weeks time, roughly, the block that we have now will decline and we will enter into a period of more mobile conditions and clearly this will make it somewhat milder.

What I am NOT suggesting here is zonality in any shape or form. I didn't comment on the EC32 day on Friday, but the latest update I believe is fascinating as it does show a more unsettled and milder interlude by late January. However, thereafter it is extremely bullish about bringing in 'Chino's Block' aka the Greenland high into the first half of Dec as the jet then ends up tracking south and we end up with a dominant wind direction during the first half of Feb (roughly) that is NE'ly.

I feel that this evolution is, without question, a clear and distinct possibility and this is where the EC32 will be put to the test now. Consistency in future updates is required, but given the usual consistent and correct info from Ed and this forum in particular, combined with the EC32 then I have a feeling that February will be far from mild, wet and windy!

Cheers, Matt

[chionomaniac]

Matt, if you run through the 100 hPa forecast it explains a lot regarding the energy pulses crossing the Atlantic and the Arctic high formation. Still very much an FI forecast though and one of the more unreliable strat ones - but the trend has been there for a few runs.

[lorenzo]

Can MJO move round to phase 8 for the first fortnight of February, is this the underlying signal from EC32 perhaps?

No complaints here if it works out like that !!

[Weather-history]

Latest 10hpa observation

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/uamap?REGION=nh&OUTPUT=gif&TYPE=obs&TYPE=an&LEVEL=10&TIME=2013011900

And what it was New Year

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/uamap?REGION=nh&OUTPUT=gif&TYPE=obs&TYPE=an&LEVEL=10&TIME=2013010100

[Cloud 10]

Can MJO move round to phase 8 for the first fortnight of February, is this the underlying signal from EC32 perhaps?

No complaints here if it works out like that !!

Looks like the gfs 00z has it nailed at 384 hrs.

[snowking]

Can MJO move round to phase 8 for the first fortnight of February, is this the underlying signal from EC32 perhaps?

No complaints here if it works out like that !!

Certainly the bias corrected ECM32 keen on phase 8:

In terms of the multi-model output (thanks to Recretos for this):

GEFS and ECM most keen on phase 8 so far

SK

[Interitus]

Of course there is a time lag to take into account when considering the effects of MJO phase.

[Frosty1]

John Hammond on bbc news channel 21:28 this evening. Everyone should watch this and get it to top played vid. on beeb site.

Excellent.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21094288

Good evening Lorenzo. I'm new to this site and still learning but I wanted to ask if John Hammond is correct in saying that the current cold and snowy period of weather is at least party due to a SSW event? Can you explain. Thanks

[lorenzo]

Good Evening Frosty, Yes John Hammond is correct in saying this, and for certain the SSW event has influenced the current outbreak of cold, the purpose behind posting the video is that seeing this cited on TV again is testament to the work put in over the last few years by the originator of this thread and others.

Here are a couple of charts I posted elsewhere today, whilst doing a check on the impact of the SSW, for the Northern Hemisphere towards the end of December and the first half of January that hopefully show the difference the event made, there are far more technical ways to illustrate this so stripping it right back to daily 500mb profiles.

Towards mid December things were looking very downbeat on the Model runs, continuous zonality and consistently nothing on the horizon to change this, so much so that many were counting on this event to change the pattern and/or to qualify scepticism about the impacts of a warming.

From this chart you can see the cold air bottled up at high latitudes.

Add in the warming event and the picture changes completely, here are stratospheric profiles in Gif format which are the equivalent of an atmospheric atomic bomb detonating.

10mb / 30mb / 50mb

The cold polar air being dislodged from it's winter residency and spilling south, the vortex usually residency now having an Arctic High of considerable magnitude parked over it.

Best advice I can give is read the first post on the thread from Chiono this brilliantly explains the whole thing. I guess there will be some debate around whether this was a 'regular' winter outbreak or not, and how much the warming actually influenced things. For me anyway the SSW shuffled the NH pattern and created an escape for what was becoming a potentially locked zonal pattern.

[Frosty1]

Good Evening Frosty, Yes John Hammond is correct in saying this, and for certain the SSW event has influenced the current outbreak of cold, the purpose behind posting the video is that seeing this cited on TV again is testament to the work put in over the last few years by the originator of this thread and others.

Here are a couple of charts I posted elsewhere today, whilst doing a check on the impact of the SSW, for the Northern Hemisphere towards the end of December and the first half of January that hopefully show the difference the event made, there are far more technical ways to illustrate this so stripping it right back to daily 500mb profiles.

Towards mid December things were looking very downbeat on the Model runs, continuous zonality and consistently nothing on the horizon to change this, so much so that many were counting on this event to change the pattern and/or to qualify scepticism about the impacts of a warming.

From this chart you can see the cold air bottled up at high latitudes.

Add in the warming event and the picture changes completely, here are stratospheric profiles in Gif format which are the equivalent of an atmospheric atomic bomb detonating.

10mb / 30mb / 50mb

The cold polar air being dislodged from it's winter residency and spilling south, the vortex usually residency now having an Arctic High of considerable magnitude parked over it.

Best advice I can give is read the first post on the thread from Chiono this brilliantly explains the whole thing. I guess there will be some debate around whether this was a 'regular' winter outbreak or not, and how much the warming actually influenced things. For me anyway the SSW shuffled the NH pattern and created an escape for what was becoming a potentially locked zonal pattern.

Thankyou. Much appreciated.

[Cloud 10]

Looking at the 500mb zonal wind anomalies for the first half of January reveals the sharp

reversal just after the SSW north of the UK.

Yellow is above average zonal winds,blue is below average.

January 1st-7th..

January 7th-16th..

[damianslaw]

I'm no expert when it come to the strat, but reading the thoughts of some who are experienced, I was led to believe we are projected to see secondary warming thanks to wave breaking - correct me if I have the wrong terminology and that this secondary warming would be the death knell on what should be now a rapidly weakening PV. Is this still likely to occur. Looking at the models they are suggesting the Canadian vortex is likely to become displaced later next week - is this a sign that the PV over Canada weakening or are we just looking at a bit of fragmentation.

GP in his winter thoughts was going to a very cold second half to January with a tanking AO and height rises over Greenland thanks to the PV being smahed to pieces. Perhaps this will still come to fruitition just a little later than anticipated i.e. early Feb, perhaps we will see height rises to our NE once again at the tail end of the month and finally retrogression of these to Greenland thanks to very strong building of heights over the pole - aided all ironically by a piece of the PV being thrown into the atlantic..

Any thoughts..

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Some abuse towards the eccentric Piers Corbyn, his forecast can't really be dismissed though this winter thus far. Strat warming hasn't nailed the blocking location though has it, not yet anyway, i think that needs to be 'ironed' out before too much celebration and dismissal is had. Its a decent step forward, but that's all it is at the moment as is any method as no one has got it spot on thus far.

BFTP

Edited January 19, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[chionomaniac]

I'm no expert when it come to the strat, but reading the thoughts of some who are experienced, I was led to believe we are projected to see secondary warming thanks to wave breaking - correct me if I have the wrong terminology and that this secondary warming would be the death knell on what should be now a rapidly weakening PV. Is this still likely to occur. Looking at the models they are suggesting the Canadian vortex is likely to become displaced later next week - is this a sign that the PV over Canada weakening or are we just looking at a bit of fragmentation.

GP in his winter thoughts was going to a very cold second half to January with a tanking AO and height rises over Greenland thanks to the PV being smahed to pieces. Perhaps this will still come to fruitition just a little later than anticipated i.e. early Feb, perhaps we will see height rises to our NE once again at the tail end of the month and finally retrogression of these to Greenland thanks to very strong building of heights over the pole - aided all ironically by a piece of the PV being thrown into the atlantic..

Any thoughts..

Presently Damian the mid stratosphere has warmed with the vortex being displaced and split. This has left mean negative zonal winds with two vortex centres - one over Canada, the other over Siberia.

The canadian vortex is forecast to be destroyed by a further warming at 10 hpa. Look at the profile - the stratosphere is completely dominated by a ridge where normally the strong vortex is present.

So where does that lead us tropospherically? Well to get an idea of this we need to look at the base of the stratosphere at 100hPa. Here the Canadian vortex almost becomes a 'free agent' no longer driven from above. Both the GFS and the ECM suggest that the residual Canadian vortex remnants will try and link up with the stronger Siberian counterpart. at T=240. A large ridge dominates the rest of the NH at this level - very unusual but entirely in line with the SSW.

This translates to a centrally placed Arctic ridge at 500 hPa.

and at this point the vortex is very disturbed across the NH. The transfer of energy across the Atlantic is entirely in line with the upper vortex repositioning, however, we have already seen the models overestimate this transfer of energy once in the last week. There is also the strong possibility that once the Canadian vortex demise is calculated there still remains the possibilty of strong NH blocking. The pattern above leaves a very negative AO signature - continuing the theme from just after the beginning of the SSW.

If the models have overestimated the surge of the v residual vortex energy across the Atlantic, then the Siberian vortex is waiting in the wings to back west - an enticing prospect for cold lovers.