Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013

[Recretos]

About the vertical resolution, ECM operational is going to get a huge upgrade of its vertical resolution, from 91 levels to 137 levels, with the ceiling remaining at 0.01hpa. How about that.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/changes/ifs_cycle_38r2/level_comp_91_137.html

[lorenzo]

Thank you Shuttler for your updates on the ECM EPS.

Just one question: Do you see only the ensemble means, or can you see individual perturbations, or plotted all at once?

The deviation is really increasing from 240h on, most of the time, so it would be interesting to see individual members. Also, given the fact that the ceiling for ECM ensembles is at 5mb (can't understand why), maybe, just maybe that is why it is losing its "momentum" regarding the more intense dynamics, and trying to reform the vortex.

Thanks also Shuttler, great to have additional perspective on this data, Recretos, my thoughts exactly in terms of the modelling of the ECM. With the activity kicking off at 1 hpa and picking trends from seeing it circulate from there, I wonder if this is the reason ECM is slow with the trends. could explain why it is now running with an idea GFS first sniffed out previously?

[Recretos]

Yes Lorenzo, that could be the case.

I mean, look at the current state, and the activity above 5mb. Amazing wave 1 activity propagating downwards, and also a little bit of wave 3 in there too. Tho it will weaken, it will leave its mark.

The ECM EPS initial probably has the full scale representation, but the calculation regime of the EPS is still below 5mb. So I am just guessing that the ECM ensembles should correct themselves a bit, over time.

[Buriedundersnow]

fantastic post recretos with the propogation forecast.

Now matter how I look at it, the tropospheric and stratospheric vortex split are basically simultaneous, with troposphere slightly in the lead,

this line from your post is interesting and is this why we are seeing an early response on the models and not much of a lag time

[cooling climate]

An interesting read for SSW enthusiasts;

http://curriculum.pm...ssw-animations/

Animations of all previously known SSW's.

I am amazed this never got more of a mention. Excellent work.

With a lobe of the PV expected to the south of the UK (10hpa)

we could really see some stunning, stunning synoptic charts in

the days ahead.

[Zenarcher]

That's a pretty big warm up considering it's just getting started, great to see,

[bobbydog]

That's a pretty big warm up considering it's just getting started, great to see,

hi WM, do you have a link to that chart?

[Zenarcher]

hi WM, do you have a link to that chart?

Hi you can find them here http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/

[Recretos]

The 10mb 65-90 graph is also on the rise.

65-25 is leveling off, and even showing a decrease, mainly due to the fact that the warm core is weakening in that area, and the cold core slightly moving into this region.

it will be interesting to see, if it will climb to my representation of the 24.12 12z GFS, some time ago.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74587-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20122013/page__st__1420#entry2456034

Regards.

[bobbydog]

Hi you can find them here http://www.cpc.ncep....re/temperature/

great, thanks for that

[Luisport]

Sunday, January 6, 2013

<a href="http://theweathercentre.blogspot.de/2013/01/what-will-happen-after-polar-vortex.html">What Will Happen After The Polar Vortex Collapse?

By

Andrew at

9:12 AM http://theweathercentre.blogspot.de/

[Shuttler]

Thank you Shuttler for your updates on the ECM EPS.

Just one question: Do you see only the ensemble means, or can you see individual perturbations, or plotted all at once?

The deviation is really increasing from 240h on, most of the time, so it would be interesting to see individual members. Also, given the fact that the ceiling for ECM ensembles is at 5mb (can't understand why), maybe, just maybe that is why it is losing its "momentum" regarding the more intense dynamics, and trying to reform the vortex.

I only see the Ens mean for a couple of levels, namely 10 and 50mb. I'm pretty sure full subscribers to the ECM output can get to see each individual Ens member, as well as Ensemble clusters. It would be fantastic to see this, including the control run and Ensemble spread, as I see for the tropospheric output.

Now, regarding the accuracy: the Ens forecast from 15days ago nailed the current situation extremely well i.e. splitting vortex with centres over Canada and Siberia. And also got the SSW timing spot on. Will be interesting to see which of the GFS or ECM will be closer to eventuality in 15 or so days time. I've done very little verification of the ECM Ens at these timescales, so can't vouch for reliability against the GFS

Finally, a strange and probably very obvious question, but can someone tell me what 'FI' is short for. I've got a rough idea, but can't put the words to the acronym !? Got to get this off my chest.....!

[BARRY]

I only see the Ens mean for a couple of levels, namely 10 and 50mb. I'm pretty sure full subscribers to the ECM output can get to see each individual Ens member, as well as Ensemble clusters. It would be fantastic to see this, including the control run and Ensemble spread, as I see for the tropospheric output.

Now, regarding the accuracy: the Ens forecast from 15days ago nailed the current situation extremely well i.e. splitting vortex with centres over Canada and Siberia. And also got the SSW timing spot on. Will be interesting to see which of the GFS or ECM will be closer to eventuality in 15 or so days time. I've done very little verification of the ECM Ens at these timescales, so can't vouch for reliability against the GFS

Finally, a strange and probably very obvious question, but can someone tell me what 'FI' is short for. I've got a rough idea, but can't put the words to the acronym !? Got to get this off my chest.....!

Fantasy island

[feb1991blizzard]

12z GFS has the vortex trying to relocate towards Greenland again at 100mb, is this anything to worry about and could this be responsible for the ramped up PV at 500mb on the last few runs?, i am slightly concerned.

[AWD]

12z GFS has the vortex trying to relocate towards Greenland again at 100mb, is this anything to worry about and could this be responsible for the ramped up PV at 500mb on the last few runs?, i am slightly concerned.

ECM also has the vortex coming back poleward (last nights 12z) so it wouldn't be too much of a surprise. A post a few posts above also suggests the ECM out to T360 repositions the vortex back east from Canada.

What this means however I don't know.

[picog]

ECM also has the vortex coming back poleward (last nights 12z) so it wouldn't be too much of a surprise. A post a few posts above also suggests the ECM out to T360 repositions the vortex back east from Canada.

What this means however I don't know.

I think if the PV goes to Canada, we are OK, but if goes to Greenland, we're doomed for snow.

[AWD]

I think if the PV goes to Canada, we are OK, but if goes to Greenland, we're doomed for snow.

A lot more to it than that, but you have the gist, yes.

Problem is there is much uncertainty as to the positioning of the PV after the initial SSW response, but there is support out there for it to reform poleward again.

All depends when/if we get any further warming's.

[Luisport]

Ryan Maueâ€@RyanMaue

For an ensemble mean, ECMWF 00z EPS was frigid for W. half of USA for 10-15 day extended range, e.g. http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/287985564978913280/photo/1

[feb1991blizzard]

Yes thats what i mean, although the ECM ens only go up to 5mb and were not to keen on the extent of the warming in the first place if i remember rightly, however, the GFS op has done really well stratospherically so a lot more concerned with that TBH, admittedly, GFS trop output is probably helping to accentuate my worries by ramping up the PV and giving signs of a december 2012 special all over again.

[snowking]

Have I just been missing it all this time, or have a heck of a lot more models suddenly been given 10mb temperature outputs on Meteociel?!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=7&carte=1&archive=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=24&mode=4&nh=1&archive=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmae_cartes.php?ech=24&code=0&mode=10&carte=1&archive=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ncmrwfe_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&carte=0&mode=10&archive=0

Thats now JMA, NOGAPS, CMA (China) and NCMRWF (India)

Gives us a lot more data going forward!

SK

[feb1991blizzard]

Have I just been missing it all this time, or have a heck of a lot more models suddenly been given 10mb temperature outputs on Meteociel?!

http://www.meteociel...rte=1&archive=0

http://www.meteociel...&nh=1&archive=0

http://www.meteociel...rte=1&archive=0

http://www.meteociel...de=10&archive=0

Thats now JMA, NOGAPS, CMA (China) and NCMRWF (India)

Gives us a lot more data going forward!

SK

I would not know about the Chinese and Indian models as i dont follow them, i may be wrong and it may just be me not paying attention but i havent seen them on the NOGAPS or JMA before.

EDIT : as they are under the title temp 10hpa and not Stratospheric 10hpa though, i may have missed them because even those 2 modelsare not among my first looks when i go on the site so i stand corrected if anyone knows.

Edited January 6, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[bluearmy]

its just sylvains way of showing us that the model goes as high as 10hpa ! (or more likely given the current sig of 10hpa, he thought it appropriate to include it. guarantee one model you wont see it on is ecm !)

[Recretos]

Yes, the JMA and NOGAPS had the 10mb temp before, as far as I know.

About the CMA and the Indian model, CMA has 60 vertical levels, with the top at 0.1hpa, and the Indian model is basically derived from GFS and UKMET, has 70 vertical levels, with the top around 1hpa, as far as I know. What I dont like about this particular model at Meteociel, is its ridiculous 2.5° horizontal resolution.

The CMA is not really particularly skilful. I would say it is somewhere in the range of NOGAPS, with a better horizontal resolution.

Imho of course.

p.s.: About CMA: This year, they have in plan to "upgrade" the model, and one of the "upgrades" will be the reduced vertical resolution. The top will be only at 10mb. Well you know what they say about "Made in China".

Edited January 6, 2013 by Recretos

[damianslaw]

I think if the PV goes to Canada, we are OK, but if goes to Greenland, we're doomed for snow.

Reading many posts in this thread, most do suggest the Polar vortex may try to move towards Greenland but a secondary wave break will help intensify strat warming and kill the PV eventually, naturally as we move through the second part of the winter the PV weakens anyway so even if it does manage to shift to greenland it most probably will be a very weak affair and certainly not the force it has been in the past 3 weeks.

[chionomaniac]

Well we still have a large ridge at 10 hPa that is even more favourably positioned on the latest run.

The vortex here is completely destroyed and what is left is positioned now over Alaska. Translating this down to 100 hPa we still see big signals for height rises to our northwest.

And with the latest MJO forecasts looking better and better the promise for cold weather fans looks great for the second half of this month.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml