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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013


chionomaniac

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Posted
  • Location: Portugal, Fátima
  • Location: Portugal, Fátima

Ryan Maueâ€@RyanMaue

At 5-days at 30 mb, that blob of warmth cuts across the pole. Process repeats again at Day 8. http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/286930352000335874/photo/1

11 minRyan Maueâ€@RyanMaue

Up at 30,000 meters, stratospheric temperatures are warm -- almost 10°C on Russian side of North Pole. GFS 10mb: http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/286928660567576576/photo/1

2 hRyan Maueâ€@RyanMaue

UAH global temps for lower-troposphere, +0.2°C above 30-yr avg for 2012. Reanalysis derived 2-meter temp +0.1°C. Yawn.

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Posted
  • Location: Knowle, Solihull - 400ft (122m) ASL
  • Location: Knowle, Solihull - 400ft (122m) ASL

Current 10 hPa max temp 8.6ºC

post-4523-0-59989800-1357247768_thumb.gi

For future reference this verifies very well with December FI forecasts - the vortex positioning is more difficult to check the verification for - but an excellent temperature forecast from the GFS into FI.

Apologies if this is a dumb question Chio, but how are the Strat temperatures measured? Weather balloons?

Bish

Edited by Bishop Brennan
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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Current 10 hPa max temp 8.6ºC

post-4523-0-59989800-1357247768_thumb.gi

For future reference this verifies very well with December FI forecasts - the vortex positioning is more difficult to check the verification for - but an excellent temperature forecast from the GFS into FI.

Worth mentioning on top of this that we are now seeing a lot of variability in the FI future warming forecasts of the strat currently. The strat warming has not only thrown the reliability of the trop forecasts into uncertainty but this has also occurred stratospherically. The difference between the last two GFS runs is large - but not unfavourable. This means that longer term it will be very difficult to pin down vortex positioning and trends - though obviously we will be running with a disturbed vortex theme throughout.

Edited by chionomaniac
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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

A potentially very special period of wintry weather upcoming, particulalry with the MJO choreographic itself so nicely.

If the latest forecasts are correct then that is almost the last piece of the jigsaw for favourable blocking positioning for later in the month. God alone knows, it is difficult enough to get the first piece!

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Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Forecaster Centaurea Weather
  • Location: Worcestershire

Recretos - those NCAR reanalysis numbers are always tricky to read - 1987 !

Edited by Glacier Point
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Posted
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL

@GP: how do you mean that? I thought IF was referring to Jan. 87?

edit: oh, Now I understand. I wasn't 67, but 87. :)

Edited by Recretos
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Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Wind, Sunny, Warm, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Devon

Sorry I'm new to this...what do all the charts mean...worst case scenario, best scenario and then most likely? Some models are picking up some windstorms too...does this make sense?

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

Sorry I'm new to this...what do all the charts mean...worst case scenario, best scenario and then most likely? Some models are picking up some windstorms too...does this make sense?

The charts equate to the % chance of the UK getting decent snowy spell(s) over the next 6 weeks has risen significantly. In my view if we end up missing out from the effects of the warmings it will be pretty bad luck.

Worst case probably brief flirtations with cold with the blocking in exactly the wrong place, we watch on with frustation and envy whilst Europe goes in the freezer.

Best case. Think of the best winter spell you can ever remember.

Most likely? wouldn't want to hazard a guess.

What we do have is a guarantee of a fairly severe Northern hemispheric disruption. Standard W-E zonality will be turned on it's head as the winter vortex which drives this will be split wide apart. Cold outspill from the pole to much lower latitudes than is normal is highly likely, it's the longitudes of where that is the big question!

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland

What we do have is a guarantee of a fairly severe Northern hemispheric disruption. Standard W-E zonality will be turned on it's head as the winter vortex which drives this will be split wide apart. Cold outspill from the pole to much lower latitudes than is normal is highly likely, it's the longitudes of where that is the big question!

Definitely

post-12276-0-38733800-1357262206_thumb.p

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

This is a better looking chart this morning as far as polewards fluxes are concerned...

post-5114-0-89085200-1357281784_thumb.gi

Wave 1 at the top was under-estimated. Today's chart and a very red looking '2600' on the scale!!

post-5114-0-22158400-1357282224_thumb.gi

Further sings of wave 2 intensifying and downwelling, this at D5

post-5114-0-71317500-1357282366_thumb.gi

Edited by s4lancia
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Posted
  • Location: Lancashire
  • Location: Lancashire

Hi there, I'm also a novice when it comes to charts, but do these reflect John Hammond's words on last night's BBC report that they are watching 'something high in the atmosphere' over the next few weeks which will have an impact on our weather? I thought he meant jet stream. ::

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Posted
  • Location: Wokingham
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny summers and snowy winters
  • Location: Wokingham

Hi there, I'm also a novice when it comes to charts, but do these reflect John Hammond's words on last night's BBC report that they are watching 'something high in the atmosphere' over the next few weeks which will have an impact on our weather? I thought he meant jet stream. ::

felix baumgartner farted when he did his jump and we're about to feel the effects!!

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Posted
  • Location: South Norwood, London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Cold Winters & Warm Dry Summers
  • Location: South Norwood, London

Hi there, I'm also a novice when it comes to charts, but do these reflect John Hammond's words on last night's BBC report that they are watching 'something high in the atmosphere' over the next few weeks which will have an impact on our weather? I thought he meant jet stream. ::

Yes, he was referring to the impending SSW's.

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Hi there, I'm also a novice when it comes to charts, but do these reflect John Hammond's words on last night's BBC report that they are watching 'something high in the atmosphere' over the next few weeks which will have an impact on our weather? I thought he meant jet stream. ::

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b01ph60q/BBC_Weather_03_01_2013/

He sure did mean the strat!

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

As ever Matt, it is great to hear a pro give us insight to the ECM and confirm our thoughts, so thank you for that. Agree entirely about the ECM and MJO, but a big step in the right direction yesterday with the forecasts.

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Ok, having combined the Cohen list with Martineau's to give a total of 54 SSW events compared with 1940-2012 CET anomalies -

Nice research. What are the results when you take in account that the effects of the SSW are felt in the trophosphere around 7-28 days, so not 1-20 days, after the SSW.

1-20 days following SSW is 0.038°C warmer than the 20 days preceding SSW.

7-28 days following SSW is 0.116°C warmer

as far as cet temperatures are concerned following a stratosphere warming one should look at the + 15 to 45 day time frame for effects.

15-45 days following SSW is 0.089°C warmer.

Essentially, there is little difference.

There are trends however - 7 day running means show that there is on average a cooling response in the 2nd week after SSW, followed by a milder interlude, before a second period of cold about 5 weeks after SSW. Not easy to be precise because there is some variation in the dates used by Cohen and Martineau, and the years obviously don't always follow the same pattern. The first cooling on the graph looks smaller but is often the more dramatic and the anomaly is reduced by the strong positive temperature swings that can occur in some instances.

post-2779-0-23245700-1357295550_thumb.jp

It's interesting seeing certain years being used as analogues - the Januaries 1979, 1982, 1987 have been used regularly. Is it being said that the atmosphere now or in the near future is genuinely like those months, or is it because they featured cold weather and SSWs?

The thing is, in each of those years, the CET was significantly WARMER after the SSW than the preceding spell.

1987 SSW was between 23-26 of January and followed by prolonged cold weather with 15-45 day anomaly of -1.07°C but this was over 3 degrees warmer than the very cold spell beforehand.

1982 is complicated by the fact that there was also an SSW in December 1981 which was followed by a extremely cold spell of weather. Between the two SSWs on 4/12/81 and 27/1/82 the CET anomaly was -3.53°C but in the 20 days following the January SSW there was an immediate upswing in temperature of over six degrees to 2.55°C above average. Days 15-45 were an average +0.03.

1979 is a peculiar choice because the SSW was near the end of February, around 22nd-27th. After an initial warming, this was followed by cold weather throughout March and into April, 15-45 day anomaly of -2.48. But this was relatively much warmer than the bitter spell that left a January CET of -0.37°C, over 4 degrees below normal.

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Hi there, I'm also a novice when it comes to charts, but do these reflect John Hammond's words on last night's BBC report that they are watching 'something high in the atmosphere' over the next few weeks which will have an impact on our weather? I thought he meant jet stream. ::

Having watched the rerun, John Hammond mentioned the words "up above" so I think you can safely say he was referring to the Stratosphere and/or Troposphere. Having said that, he could have been referring to our god-like icons in here. GP, Chinio, Recretos, IF are gods in here, without you, this place wouldn't exist. It is now up to the weather gods to deliver for our tiny little island. Posted Image

EDIT: Sorry, I cannot add anything more constructive as I would have to do a serious bit of research to do so.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

Ok, having combined the Cohen list with Martineau's to give a total of 54 SSW events compared with 1940-2012 CET anomalies -

1-20 days following SSW is 0.038°C warmer than the 20 days preceding SSW.

7-28 days following SSW is 0.116°C warmer

15-45 days following SSW is 0.089°C warmer.

Essentially, there is little difference.

There are trends however - 7 day running means show that there is on average a cooling response in the 2nd week after SSW, followed by a milder interlude, before a second period of cold about 5 weeks after SSW. Not easy to be precise because there is some variation in the dates used by Cohen and Martineau, and the years obviously don't always follow the same pattern. The first cooling on the graph looks smaller but is often the more dramatic and the anomaly is reduced by the strong positive temperature swings that can occur in some instances.

post-2779-0-23245700-1357295550_thumb.jp

It's interesting seeing certain years being used as analogues - the Januaries 1979, 1982, 1987 have been used regularly. Is it being said that the atmosphere now or in the near future is genuinely like those months, or is it because they featured cold weather and SSWs?

The thing is, in each of those years, the CET was significantly WARMER after the SSW than the preceding spell.

1987 SSW was between 23-26 of January and followed by prolonged cold weather with 15-45 day anomaly of -1.07°C but this was over 3 degrees warmer than the very cold spell beforehand.

1982 is complicated by the fact that there was also an SSW in December 1981 which was followed by a extremely cold spell of weather. Between the two SSWs on 4/12/81 and 27/1/82 the CET anomaly was -3.53°C but in the 20 days following the January SSW there was an immediate upswing in temperature of over six degrees to 2.55°C above average. Days 15-45 were an average +0.03.

1979 is a peculiar choice because the SSW was near the end of February, around 22nd-27th. After an initial warming, this was followed by cold weather throughout March and into April, 15-45 day anomaly of -2.48. But this was relatively much warmer than the bitter spell that left a January CET of -0.37°C, over 4 degrees below normal.

So what's the deal with this, are you saying that with the current Strat profile, it is more likely to lead to milder weather than cold?

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

So what's the deal with this, are you saying that with the current Strat profile, it is more likely to lead to milder weather than cold?

I think that it shows that each strat warming should be taken on it's own merits. All along it has been stated that SSW's do not guarantee cold over the UK. However for the purpose of research - the scientists often include the period prior to a strat warming as part of the event due to the increase in blocking precursers - that is why the precursor can be better than the main course.

For the purpose of research, I would like to see the SSW's divided into propagating and non propagating. Immediately a number of SSW's would be discounted from the CET results. After this then the frequency of HLB's should be analised and how many of these then are in the rioght position for cold to the UK. This should then be split up into sections prior and post SSW's to determine the effects. That is an awful lot of research!

I have some links to research papers on file at home that show the 'cold' episodes following SSW's into the mid latitudes and these show hemispherically the significance of SSW's.

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