Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013

[nick sussex]

http://www.meteo.psu...rs/mjosswv6.pdf -> here you are.

Sometimes I wonder what will our knowledge about the atmosphere be in 25 years from now?

Thanks for that Sebastiaan.

[Duane S.]

Reference the MJO, I'm coming around to the idea that it may not be a bad thing at all where is is currently sat and heading. Let it run through the SE Asian area and hopefully it will emerge, nicely amplified into the Western hemisphere at just about the right time i.e. when the effects of strat warming starts to fully hit the troposhpere. Whatever is driving what, an amplified MJO in phase 7/8 mid Jan could be a massive boost to any prolonged cold for us.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Not really much of the vortex left on the GFS 12Z:

[bluearmy]

The siberian vortex remains dominant in the split though its quite a close call. Again, we see the siberian vortex splitting towards the end of the run. Is this the first signs of a break up of the siberian segment?

first run to show the strat pattern at 10hpa reflected all the way down through the strat and into the trop.

[Snowy Liverpool]

The siberian vortex remains dominant in the split though its quite a close call. Again, we see the siberian vortex splitting towards the end of the run. Is this the first signs of a break up of the siberian segment?

first run to show the strat pattern at 10hpa reflected all the way down through the strat and into the trop.

Sorry If I'm getting this wrong I'm new to this, but the warming is originating and staying in Siberia, surely this is the last place we will see the vortex going? The biggest segment on our side of the Atlantic seems to be in the Mediterranean which can only be good.

[bluearmy]

Sorry If I'm getting this wrong I'm new to this, but the warming is originating and staying in Siberia, surely this is the last place we will see the vortex going? The biggest segment on our side of the Atlantic seems to be in the Mediterranean which can only be good.

You need to look at the heights, not the temps to see where the vortex is

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2012122612&var=HGT&lev=100mb&hour=384

[Luisport]

I everyone, i'm new here! I'm very happy by found this forum topic. This is a very difficult issue to understand but i hope that with time and your help i will succede. Let me make 2 questions... maby 3 to anyone that can answer. First we will have a PV collapse on first 10 days of January? What events can we expect with it? What regions can be hit? Sorry about my dumy questions...

[chionomaniac]

SSW by day 10 on latest GFS run.

That's good because it will bring forward tropospheric changes.

[chionomaniac]

Best forecast by far:

Thats a full on vortex disintergration ( It's split but so far apart - it could be a summer chart!)

[-uksnow-]

Chiono or anyone else

Is this the beginning of another warming episode occuring, going from -20 to -16 to -12 in the last 3 or 4 frames something to watch out for some subsquequent warming?

[chionomaniac]

Chiono or anyone else

Is this the beginning of another warming episode occuring, going from -20 to -16 to -12 in the last 3 or 4 frames something to watch out for some subsquequent warming?

The pv is floundering on the floor of the ring - another little kick wouldn't go amiss at all before the count is finished!

I think that the first blow is a wave number one folllowed by a couple of cheeky number twos just to finish the job.

(only a forecast though!!!!)

[Snowman.]

Chiono or anyone else

Is this the beginning of another warming episode occuring, going from -20 to -16 to -12 in the last 3 or 4 frames something to watch out for some subsquequent warming?

I want to ask this question too.

After the main warming is their a chance that it will start up again? In term causing a mess of the PV?

[-uksnow-]

The pv is floundering on the floor of the ring - another little kick wouldn't go amiss at all before the count is finished!

I think that the first blow is a wave number one folllowed by a couple of cheeky number twos just to finish the job.

(only a forecast though!!!!)

I want to ask this question too.

After the main warming is their a chance that it will start up again? In term causing a mess of the PV?

Thanks for the replies, haha yes i'd happily take that forecast though! This may not be the thread for it, but one last question before i dream snowy dreams; what kick starts the warming in the first place?

[Glacier Point]

To paraphrase Steve Cram's commentary...

Beautiful!

As indicated, a seismic scale split in the upper circulation, the cooling of the tropics takes the eye and completes the circle nicely.

Given the amount of low heights we've seen over the Aleutians just recently (not to mention the recent spike in global mountain torque), further warmings are on the cards.

Edited December 26, 2012 by Glacier Point

[chionomaniac]

I want to ask this question too.

After the main warming is their a chance that it will start up again? In term causing a mess of the PV?

Of course the vortex will try and start up again - that is just the natural winter state trying to become re-established. That is why we want to see the vortex completely fragmented. If this occurs then it will take a lot longer for the vortex to become re-established - and during tihs time we can only hope for blocking to occur because even though it is not guaranteed, there will certainly be a better chance than currently.

[Snowy Liverpool]

I'm not sure if this is a split or a displacement going on here, or is it possible to have both? With wave 1 hitting first, followed by a wave 2, the stratospheric pattern seems to reflect this with a displacement first and then a split.

[Recretos]

Thanks Chiono for those charts. Last few runs were really over the top, to put it that way. And I agree with Chiono, that this could in fact be classified as an SSW. No doubt about it. The thing that bugs me at the moment is the classified type of the SSW. I have heard people saying its a split SSW on the GFS. Of course its a split after the vortex is getting beaten down and basically getting ripped apart. But the way I see it, this should be classified as a displacement SSW, because the SSW and the "lethal blow" is supposed to come with the strong wave 1 and the displacement. For me, a split type SSW is by definition and by an example, the Jan/Feb 2009 SSW. So feel free to correct me if I am wrong, but how would you personally classify this upcoming event? Or maybe I missed something here.

The upper strat. looks like its going to get literally overpowered by the High.

p.s.: Now we just need the ECM to kick things up a notch or two.

Edited December 26, 2012 by Recretos

[chionomaniac]

I would classify the latest forecast as a displacement SSW. The split only occurs following the displacement and the SSW is in place prior to the split.

Still only a forecast, but definitely the best we have seen and all of a sudden we are not chasing at day 16. The vortex positioning following a warming is difficult to model so there will be lots of changes further still.

[Panayiotis]

Is this an instant reaction by the troposphere with most of the stratosphere at the pole seeing above average temperatures? With a big surface high right above the pole that must be something good if we are looking for cold...

(384hrs though)

Just looked at the 12z at the same timeframe it looks similar to the 18z however on the 18z the heights across the pole are stronger with less of a warming in the stratosphere.

12z(left) 18z(middle) 18z(strat)(right) 12z(strat)(bottom)

Edited December 27, 2012 by Panayiotis

[feb1991blizzard]

I just want to say a late happy xmas and a happy SSW new year to all at netweather and particualarly on this thread,

[zoey]

To paraphrase Steve Cram's commentary...

Beautiful!

As indicated, a seismic scale split in the upper circulation, the cooling of the tropics takes the eye and completes the circle nicely.

Given the amount of low heights we've seen over the Aleutians just recently (not to mention the recent spike in global mountain torque), further warmings are on the cards.

I'd like to introduce myself, my name is chris, I'm from across the pond in Langhorne, Pa which is about 30 mins north of Philadelphia. I have 3 questions I would like to ask:

1. what affects will the warming of the stratoshere have on my area?

2. will the warming have any affect on the mjo, i've noticed the european model has it going into phases 4 and 5 (which does not look good for cold in the east coast)

3. will the warming affect the ao and the nao?

I've enjoyed reading your posts

thank you

Chris

[weatherjunkie]

I'd like to introduce myself, my name is chris, I'm from across the pond in Langhorne, Pa which is about 30 mins north of Philadelphia. I have 3 questions I would like to ask:

1. what affects will the warming of the stratoshere have on my area?

2. will the warming have any affect on the mjo, i've noticed the european model has it going into phases 4 and 5 (which does not look good for cold in the east coast)

3. will the warming affect the ao and the nao?

I've enjoyed reading your posts

thank you

Chris

I would like to take a stab at some of these questions if you don't mind. I'm also from the Philly metro area...small world I guess .

1. The affects of the warming are highly dependent on what happens to the polar vortex as a result of the warming. Most of the charts we see on the GFS show a split vortex by the end of the long range. This split will have to be monitored since one piece may setup over Canada/Greenland and will create quite a problem if we wish to see a -NAO. We would prefer to see the split where one piece heads to Siberia and the other to Europe which would allow HP over Greenland and a -NAO. For now we understand a warming is coming but the exact details of what happens to the PV remain a mystery and won't be really understood until middle January.

2. The MJO is a tropical atmosphere model which is dependent on deep tropical convection. The general principle is that the MJO affects large scale patterns in both the tropical and subtropical latitudes but is not as influential when it comes to high latitude patterns, although to say it has no affect would be erroneous. In fact, there have been numerous instances where the MJO was in an unfavorable phase and directly opposed to cold in the E US but the warming affects were dampened due to the more favorable Atlantic/NAO blocking. This is certainly a possibility if we can get blocking established prior to the MJO reaching phases 3-4 but at the moment this doesn't appear so and I do think we will warm up a bit come mid-january. It's the old battle of Atlantic vs Pacific and which one is more important for the E US in the winter.

3. Pretty much the same answer as 1 except the AO will almost certainly drop strongly negative as high pressure pushes away the PV from the North Pole. The fragmentation of the polar vortex is still uknown and details are hard to come by at this range. Right now if we were to take the GFS at face value in the 2+ week range we would likely see an east based -NAO which is better than positive NAO but would favor above average snow into the Great Lakes instead of I-95.

Hopefully this clarified a few things.

[Duane S.]

Rather easy on the eye this monrning...

Best looking zonal wind forecast from the ECM I've seen so far...

This is getting very interesting

[chionomaniac]

Yes look carefully!

Forecast SSW 4/1/13!

The question is - will we see propagation?

This is what we would like to see on the EP flux forecast in the coming days:

Edited December 27, 2012 by chionomaniac

[chionomaniac]

Latest GFS at 10 hPa:

That's quite a strong vortex developing at the pole ( A reversed one that is!)