Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013

[Isolated Frost]

GFS 6z at D10 keeps the core polar vortex energy in NE Siberia, and a ridging vortex in NE Canada into Greenland- the long term prediction, moving into D15 is the shift of the NE Canada energy into a more southern clime, around SE Canada/Newfoundland- whilst keeping in a more optimistic western ridge into Greenland- the nwp output at a similar timescale favours a Polar High emerging- what the GFS 0z does to the tropo-vortex is completely take out the Greenland ridge with a squeezing high moving in- this could in turn end the pattern of lower heights to the north and north-east

GFS 6z solution at D16 is for the Siberian sector to remain under the polar energy, without the previous ridge into Scandinavia- and the shift towards the pv to SE Canada..

The signal for me is that pattern rises to the NE are likely in the next 16-24 day period, with heights very low towards the NW, a sort of battleground again (note, this is before the stratospheric warming takes influence on us, so the pattern looks likely to be increasingly transient).

[chionomaniac]

Wow!

Day 11 at 10 hPa - a whopping 15.1ºC

[Isolated Frost]

-3c at 192, end of hi-res as well. Definitely moving into strong warming territory; whether it can penetrate into the strat-vortex core is another matter, but the steady synoptic changes we will see over the next month in the NH will be interesting and part of my fascination with weather and meteorology really.

[Recretos]

When waiting for troposphere response, I think this graph might prove useful. Its the blocking strength/location forecast from CFSv2. Since CFSv2 is also a troposphere/stratosphere coupled model with downward wave coupling integrated, it should get the idea of a possible SSW induced blocking.

Given the verification, it should start picking it up around 6-8 days in advance.

CFSv2 has some problems with simulating downward wave propagation from the strat, but on a shorter range when thing are about to "blow", I think (I hope) it should see something. Some easy to understand info in here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ctb/meetings/2012/CFSv2/Perlwitz.pdf

I find it really interesting how ECMWF just doesn't want to buy this top strat warming. My money goes to ECM, due to its reputation, but my hopes are on GFS regarding this matter. But I think they will both correct themselves, ECM firing up a bit, and GFS maybe watering it down a notch or two.

Edited December 24, 2012 by Recretos

[Snowy Liverpool]

A nice westward shift of the warming on the 12z, much closer to the North Pole instead of wasting away in Siberia.

[Panayiotis]

Bye Bye PV....

[MR EXTREMES]

Is this likely to happen?

[chionomaniac]

Recretos, the ECM is a day behind with it's forecasts which is why the 1 hPa warming isn't showing quite as significantly yet.

Also 12Z GFS as close to a predicted SSW that we have had to date.

Edited December 24, 2012 by chionomaniac

[Recretos]

I know. But I was comparing the exact runs and the same forecast time (240h).

[chionomaniac]

I know. But I was comparing the exact runs and the same forecast time (240h).

Ah I see sorry!

[Recretos]

No problem Chionomaniac.

I was playing around with the latest GFS, 12z, converting it into the zonal mean graph @10mb.

Looking at Meteociel charts, we have a slight temperature change till 216h in the 65N-90N area. I drew an approximate line for the 65N. I would say the mean at 12h to be around -75, and around -70/-65 at 216h.

From 216h to 372h, there is a constant warm offensive. The power of the warm core is reducing along the way, but the cold core is also retreating, so the trend would be positive to up until 360h, maybe 372h.

I drew my view of the 12z idea. Of course the time span is much longer than it should be, but it is hard to draw in a such tight space. So basically ignore the time scale. Blue line is up to around 200h. The starting warming trend would go up fast, but then slightly reducing the pace from 348 to 384. Basically not a bad warming on the 12Z, and I think my graph is a bit "pessimistic". The calculated means could be up to around -25 at max.

Just another run, I know, but I decided to put it into this graph, for a comparison, to see just how good/bad it really is. At least in my view of course.

Best regards.

Edited December 24, 2012 by Recretos

[chionomaniac]

Happy Christmas all and a happy SSW New Year!

[Cloud 10]

A similar idea to the one above,this time showing the projected warming over the North Pole.

[AWD]

There isn't a lot left of the PV here;

It's been capooned!

[Isolated Frost]

The warming is not as strong on the 18z GFS suite as on the 12z suite- but instead of the vortex (albeit crumbling and in pieces) being situated to the north/north-west of us, the warming takes it from Greenland to Scandinavia, with lessening energy movement from D15 onwards-

A new signal that would be very positive for us here- you can see the potential opening up slowly but surely

edit: HAPPY CHRISTMAS!

Edited December 25, 2012 by Isolated Frost

[Recretos]

The latest runs are of course still swinging a bit here and there, but an improving trend and progress are defiantly there! Interesting times ahead I could say.

Happy holidays everyone.

[Mark Bayley]

The warming is not as strong on the 18z GFS suite as on the 12z suite- but instead of the vortex (albeit crumbling and in pieces) being situated to the north/north-west of us, the warming takes it from Greenland to Scandinavia, with lessening energy movement from D15 onwards-

A new signal that would be very positive for us here- you can see the potential opening up slowly but surely

edit: HAPPY CHRISTMAS!

Which would also tie in nicely if we can reach a higher amplitude MJO phase 7/8 by mid month, that would certainly aid in Greenland height rises!

Although saying that the lastest update is for it to remain weak

http://www.cpc.ncep....O/mjoupdate.pdf

Some great posts so far this year, making it one of my favorite threads on the forum. A subject that i've very much enjoyed learning about as well. To many to name but CH, IF, Phil, GP, Lorenzo, Recretos etc.. Merry xmas to you all!!

Edited December 25, 2012 by Mark Bayley

[weatherjunkie]

What a pleasure it is to find such a thread every winter. Monitoring this kind of stuff if incredibly quite interesting and those who have posted in here have done a marvelous job in both explaining model outputs and potential impacts on sensible weather.

To add some food for thought, it has been proposed that in order to help propagate the warming down from the top of the stratosphere to the troposphere, EP flux vectors must point to the poles in the troposphere. EP (Eliasssan-Palmer) flux is used to help describe eddy forcing of zonal wind anomalies. When EP vectors are pointed to the poles, wave propagation is enhanced and the polar jet is decelerated. These poleward propagating EP-fluxes are generated by tropospheric planetary waves which lead to our SSW events.

Essentially when pointed polewards in the troposphere the zonal mean wind state is weakened allowing for some warming to make its way down. Of course, we also have to get the warming down from 10 mb where the 0z GFS shows 60+C temp change at the north pole. So far seeing displacement from 30mb to 100mb from strong wave 1 and weaker PV but the intensity of the warming is dampened as you go down which won't give it a final blow unless we see more events. But then again, the degree of displacement should be sufficient unless you're out for blood against the PV, which in that case we will need more for the kill.

Here's a study which brushes over the EP flux. http://center.stelab...mazaki_koji.pdf

Some more background on the EP http://www.rsmas.mia...Palm Theory.pdf

Source of EP flux forecast that I could get my hands on http://ds.data.jma.g...x.html#monit_nh

[lorenzo]

Merry Xmas Strat fiends, hope you have suitably suddenly warm day

[chionomaniac]

Great strat forecasts today. Almost a true SSW forecast by the end of the 06Z GFS run.

And how is this for tremendous wave activity?

It beats hands down the last activity.

I'll stick with my SSW forecast of 10th Jan!

[joggs]

Thanks for the interesting updates and reading. Merry christmap to all.

[UV-RAY]

Great strat forecasts today. Almost a true SSW forecast by the end of the 06Z GFS run.

And how is this for tremendous wave activity?

It beats hands down the last activity.

I'll stick with my SSW forecast of 10th Jan!

I truly hopes so Chion, we need something to drag us out of the awful Synoptics showing in the models at the moment. Merry Xmas to all who contribute here, keep up the excellent work.

[Mr Plough]

Thanks for the updates Chino and all the others who make such great contributions to this thread.

Potentially at least we have some interesting model viewing coming up as we head into the new year.

All these xmas films has made me want my snow fix more than ever

Merry Christmas everyone

[bluearmy]

Well the 06z gfs post T300 is astonishing with a clear SSW and reversal of the flow higher up in the strat. At the top of the strat, there is no vortex at all. the past few runs have brought those higher temps straight into the core at 10hpa so we definitely have a consistent signal for an SSW sometime between the 7th and 10th jan. the latter parts of the gfs trop op runs should now begin to show us if we can expect an immediate wave response in the trop.

[Cloud 10]

The warming at the top of the stratosphere is way off the scale on the 06z!

Edited December 25, 2012 by Cloud 10