Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013

[Recretos]

What would be the result of that influx of heat into the polar region i have no idea and tbh im not near experienced enough as some reporting in here lik Chi,GP, Lorenzo, BA and Recretos etc to have any confidence that i have got any of the above right lol.

Well, my opinion is, that given all the model output so far, and the reanalysis done, correlations, and overall patterns setting up, a displacement type SSW (@10mb) is more likely than a split type event.

And in your chart, the heat influx would more than likely split the vortex. One of the best or "textbook" split SSWs recently, was the 2009 event. I used ERA, because it basically looks a lot better than the standard NCEP reanalysis.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just wondering about the latest strat temps, is the fact that they seem to tail off after peaking both in terms of the warm sectors and in the core of the vortex anything to worry about? Does this mean that the warming may peak at levels not high enough for an SSW and the highest temps may have already been modelled?, Both questions obviously from a cold weather fans perspective.

Looks to me like we would be alright and the core would continue to warm but just wondering what the expert view is.

[Glacier Point]

1962 warming event at 10 hPa and 30 hPa at ten day intervals, heights and temperature anomalies....starting to show a similar type evolution.

20/12/62 - 30/12/62

... note the elongated vortex in the final frame at 30 hPa, stretched across the Pole.

ohh, how close ?

Good to see tropical stratosphere temperatures forecast to fall which I think would be a pre-requisite for warming at the Pole.

Warming also now very pronounced at 5hPa and 1hPa:

I think the date around 7th / 8th January continues to be the most likely date of a warming event.

Note the continued similarity with the 62/63 warming event in terms of GPH profile.

Edited December 20, 2012 by Glacier Point

[Relativistic]

Could someone provide a link to the first strat thread? I've tried searching for It on Google but I can't seem to find anything but this thread and last years. Would be interesting to read through.

Thanks.

[Isolated Frost]

Could someone provide a link to the first strat thread? I've tried searching for It on Google but I can't seem to find anything but this thread and last years. Would be interesting to read through.

Thanks.

http://forum.netweat...perature-watch/

?

edit: the above is the 2010-11 one (2 seasons ago), but I think the first one is below, the 2009-10 one

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/57364-stratosphere-temperature-watch/

Edited December 20, 2012 by Isolated Frost

[Gael_Force]

Could someone provide a link to the first strat thread? I've tried searching for It on Google but I can't seem to find anything but this thread and last years. Would be interesting to read through.

Thanks.

Page 55 of this thread - post # 1090 has the links for all the archived strat threads.

[Relativistic]

Thanks guys

[Isolated Frost]

A mighty stratospheric stand-off, with the warming attempting to crack the core... and in the next few days I think the clock will stop ticking and start ringing, times up, pv...

[Panayiotis]

A mighty stratospheric stand-off, with the warming attempting to crack the core... and in the next few days I think the clock will stop ticking and start ringing, times up, pv...

Love that, its like the PiVoting point in the middle of a book, how will the story end like though? (rhetorical question) Edited December 20, 2012 by Panayiotis

[MR EXTREMES]

ohh, how close ?

Good to see tropical stratosphere temperatures forecast to fall which I think would be a pre-requisite for warming at the Pole.

Warming also now very pronounced at 5hPa and 1hPa:

I think the date around 7th / 8th January continues to be the most likely date of a warming event.

Note the continued similarity with the 62/63 warming event in terms of GPH profile.

so if this is the case around the 7th 8th of jan surely the end of jan feb is going to be the main pattern change?

and what if this warming does not happen then what ?

[MattH]

Just a quick one but the EC32 isn't buying any sort of height rises or pattern changes and now goes through to the 20th of January. The full data suite including pressure, precipitation and temperature analysis all points towards a predominantly unsettled, if not zonal flow through to the middle of January at least with lower than average pressure either over or just to the east of the UK. Temperatures look to be around average primarily due to temporary N or NW'ly flows to the rear of any low pressure systems, whilst the south could be warmer than average at times. Clearly precipitation is above average pretty much throughout the forecast.

The 12Z ECMWF continues to highlight further interesting stratospheric conditions and this warming continues to be forecast, but again it just feels as though we aren't getting anywhere with it, perhaps because it has been signaled for so long. That being said January is indeed fast approaching and one way or another the signal within these forecast charts is either going to have to materalise or not.

Clearly the EC32 as with other forecast models did fail miserably regarding the E or NE'ly flow a few backs so clearly it could equally be wrong regarding the general pattern as January progresses, but as I've said before, using the full set of information operationally for over a year has proven to me it is more right than wrong and if that is the case than January could come and go with little or no noteworthy cold weather.

Regards to all and also have a very Merry Christmas.

M.

[geoffw]

Just a quick one but the EC32 isn't buying any sort of height rises or pattern changes and now goes through to the 20th of January. The full data suite including pressure, precipitation and temperature analysis all points towards a predominantly unsettled, if not zonal flow through to the middle of January at least with lower than average pressure either over or just to the east of the UK. Temperatures look to be around average primarily due to temporary N or NW'ly flows to the rear of any low pressure systems, whilst the south could be warmer than average at times. Clearly precipitation is above average pretty much throughout the forecast.

The 12Z ECMWF continues to highlight further interesting stratospheric conditions and this warming continues to be forecast, but again it just feels as though we aren't getting anywhere with it, perhaps because it has been signaled for so long. That being said January is indeed fast approaching and one way or another the signal within these forecast charts is either going to have to materalise or not.

Clearly the EC32 as with other forecast models did fail miserably regarding the E or NE'ly flow a few backs so clearly it could equally be wrong regarding the general pattern as January progresses, but as I've said before, using the full set of information operationally for over a year has proven to me it is more right than wrong and if that is the case than January could come and go with little or no noteworthy cold weather.

Regards to all and also have a very Merry Christmas.

M.

Just a quick one but the EC32 isn't buying any sort of height rises or pattern changes and now goes through to the 20th of January. The full data suite including pressure, precipitation and temperature analysis all points towards a predominantly unsettled, if not zonal flow through to the middle of January at least with lower than average pressure either over or just to the east of the UK. Temperatures look to be around average primarily due to temporary N or NW'ly flows to the rear of any low pressure systems, whilst the south could be warmer than average at times. Clearly precipitation is above average pretty much throughout the forecast.

The 12Z ECMWF continues to highlight further interesting stratospheric conditions and this warming continues to be forecast, but again it just feels as though we aren't getting anywhere with it, perhaps because it has been signaled for so long. That being said January is indeed fast approaching and one way or another the signal within these forecast charts is either going to have to materalise or not.

Clearly the EC32 as with other forecast models did fail miserably regarding the E or NE'ly flow a few backs so clearly it could equally be wrong regarding the general pattern as January progresses, but as I've said before, using the full set of information operationally for over a year has proven to me it is more right than wrong and if that is the case than January could come and go with little or no noteworthy cold weather.

Regards to all and also have a very Merry Christmas.

M.

god help the south west

[TEITS]

Thanks again Matt.

As i've just said in the model discussion thread the Met O predicted the 2009, 2010 cold spells from some distance away and what is disturbing is their 16-30 forecasts continues to suggest more of the same. So whatever positive signs some members on here are seeing is not being interpreted the same way by the Met O.

I hope the likes of GP etc are right with regards to the potential in mid Jan but for the moment I will not be pinning my hopes on it.

[UV-RAY]

Thanks again Matt.

As i've just said in the model discussion thread the Met O predicted the 2009, 2010 cold spells from some distance away and what is disturbing is their 16-30 forecasts continues to suggest more of the same. So whatever positive signs some members on here are seeing is not being interpreted the same way by the Met O.

I hope the likes of GP etc are right with regards to the potential in mid Jan but for the moment I will not be pinning my hopes on it.

Like Matt said the ECM didn't perform we'll during the so called last cold spell, however I agree with his point regarding how it's far more right than wrong and when you consider how well it models anything coming from the Atlantic, then any talk of impending cold looks like pie in the sky at this moment in time. Edited December 21, 2012 by Seven of Nine

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

ohh, how close ?

Good to see tropical stratosphere temperatures forecast to fall which I think would be a pre-requisite for warming at the Pole.

Warming also now very pronounced at 5hPa and 1hPa:

I think the date around 7th / 8th January continues to be the most likely date of a warming event.

Note the continued similarity with the 62/63 warming event in terms of GPH profile.

The similarity seems to stop just there, if the strat profile is the leader one would anticipate similar widespread blocking and cold.......so if thius continues and the 'weather' remains as projected then where does that leave things? Potentially fascinating times ahead

BFTP

Edited December 21, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[bradymk]

Thanks again Matt.

As i've just said in the model discussion thread the Met O predicted the 2009, 2010 cold spells from some distance away and what is disturbing is their 16-30 forecasts continues to suggest more of the same. So whatever positive signs some members on here are seeing is not being interpreted the same way by the Met O. Still more good strat forecasts today and hopefully these will continue. 2 questions, will the flux heading to the equator matter too much and when will we see an actual ssw forecast? That is if there is one obviously.

I hope the likes of GP etc are right with regards to the potential in mid Jan but for the moment I will not be pinning my hopes on it.

yes they were very good with 2009 and 2010 and regarding the met 16-30 day, Ian said yesterday they are seeing a key pattern change to cold mid jan so they are also seeing it. 2 questions, will the flux heading towards equator affect us too much and when would we see an actual ssw forecast issued? Thats if there will be one obviously. Edited December 21, 2012 by bradythemole

[phil nw.]

Meanwhile back to the Stratosphere and signs of ongoing wave breaking are still in the outputs but up to now the vortex keeps fighting back.

The00z GFS run at t240hrs show the Mid-Strato vortex still quite stubbornly modelled over the pole.

ECM graph confirms the temperatures running fairly steady close to the mean.

I guess we are keen to see complete vortex distruction after all the warmth that`s been attacking it up to now but so far no sign of that.We have seen brief splitting and some fragmentation but the core remains intact.

Cold lovers are waiting to see if we can get a SSW to finish the job.

If this doesn`t occur then at least it`s more data gathered to understand just a little more about wave breaking and minor warmings and the effect on the vortex.

I believe that`s the way to look at this-a learning experience and not a forecast for cold.

Edited December 21, 2012 by phil n.warks.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Just to say my previous post is a genuine post re it being a real test ahead as looking at what has been posted, touted, the pressure on the PV the warmings and forecast warming we should/ could see some serious and prolonged wintry weather. GP mentions the 8-10 Jan, well good on him. I see that as the pivotal period of our winter ie it'll kick in . I'll post my thoughts at length elsewehere but suffice to say dramatic changes with extension SE of GHP and jetstream shifts south is my anticipation.

BFTP

[bluearmy]

a quick look at the gfs forecasts and how they are verifying shows the following.

comparing high res T192 with T0 : looks very close. not a chance yet to see any strong warmings come into this timescale yet.

comparing low res with high res forecasts: general pattern - good. Temps where warming starts to get absorbed into the vortex ( east alaska) appears to be understated by approx 6 to 10 degrees. warmings over siberia are greatly exagerated by around 20 to 30 degrees where the warming is strongest. that still gives decent leeway and we should expect to see a strong enough warming early jan to justify the guarded optimism on here.

note that the timings of the warmer temps appearing into alaska are generally fine wrt the forecasts though rather overstated by the tme they arrive.

[Methuselah]

Just to say my previous post is a genuine post re it being a real test ahead as looking at what has been posted, touted, the pressure on the PV the warmings and forecast warming we should/ could see some serious and prolonged wintry weather. GP mentions the 8-10 Jan, well good on him. I see that as the pivotal period of our winter ie it'll kick in . I'll post my thoughts at length elsewehere but suffice to say dramatic changes with extension SE of GHP and jetstream shifts south is my anticipation.

BFTP

I hope so, Fred...But why do I expect to be wiping yet more egg off my face, come January 21st?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I hope so, Fred...But why do I expect to be wiping yet more egg off my face, come January 21st?

Maybe Pete, but I like what I'm seeing even more now we are nearer and it looks a much stronger signal than december and always has done....so fingers crossed

BFTP

Edited December 21, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[bluearmy]

met 30 dayer finally recognises the upcoming warming. hints yesterday from ian re this and now on the website.

[feb1991blizzard]

Met office hinting at possible colder weather in mid Jan with their 30 day update, rare of them to go against the EC32, particularly at a range where they could easily wait until another 1, maybe even 2 runs before deciding whether to alter their wording, its not like they would be overly criticised as long as they changed as any colder weather crept into the 20 day range, the only thing i can think of is that they are factoring in a warming strat.

EDIT : beaten to it!!

Edited December 21, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[Recretos]

"The epic battle began. Powers collided, with no end in sight. Which one shall prevail? Which one shall dominate? Which one shall overcome the other and rule over the north?"

I just had to add a little Recretos' touch of epicness.

Edited December 21, 2012 by Recretos

[cooling climate]

Can not for the life of me understand why there is so much emphasis on the ECM 32 dayer

when it has been flapping around like a fish out of water the last few weeks, Even the update

a few days ago suggested more in the way of northern blocking and has now changed back

again. Treat it the same you would treat any other model.