Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013

[bluearmy]

This is different I think;

Is that not two separate warming's now? With the vortex stuck inbetween & about to pop? Cross polar flow?

the warming over us is what has travelled around from the inital push from the east asian rise. its all part of the picture and i think the stretching and sudden lurch 90 degrees of the vortex is what is significant.

[chionomaniac]

This is different I think;

Is that not two separate warming's now? With the vortex stuck inbetween & about to pop? Cross polar flow?

We are this close - still a little way to go.

But at this point we would only go one way. ( We still have not had a forecast SSW yet.)

[feb1991blizzard]

Actor at the theatre entrance ?

Phase 7 looks about the best one for Jan, 8 not as good though, can someone confirm whether these are the right composites though, not sure the way its worded on the site i got them off.

[Glacier Point]

Warming event on 7th/8th January (based on position of ridge over Canada on 27th/28th December) ?

That's a fair few GFS runs to go through yet before it comes into model view and even more ECM ones. Reinforces the idea that stratospheric timescales are extremely slow ! Still, should give us something interesting to look at over Christmas.

Edited December 19, 2012 by Glacier Point

[Glacier Point]

Phase 7 looks about the best one for Jan, 8 not as good though, can someone confirm whether these are the right composites though, not sure the way its worded on the site i got them off.

Wouldn't worry about that. Basically the net impact will be for an ultra-excited response between tropospheric coupling and the strat warming in its initial phase. These will blur the lines between phases 7 and 8. The basic gist would be for height rises in the North Atlantic / Greenland locale to start.

Edited December 19, 2012 by Glacier Point

[damianslaw]

This is a real interesting thread to read. Did we see any strat warming precede the cold spell of mid Dec 09 - mid Jan 10, if not, what caused the super cold block over Greenland, in my opinion it was a much better set up than the synoptics we saw in Dec 10.

The sudden change in early-mid Dec 09 still leaves me puzzled, if you look at the charts even on the 9th Dec you'd not have betted on the synoptics occuring on the 17th Dec that year.

[Snowy Liverpool]

This is a real interesting thread to read. Did we see any strat warming precede the cold spell of mid Dec 09 - mid Jan 10, if not, what caused the super cold block over Greenland, in my opinion it was a much better set up than the synoptics we saw in Dec 10.

The sudden change in early-mid Dec 09 still leaves me puzzled, if you look at the charts even on the 9th Dec you'd not have betted on the synoptics occuring on the 17th Dec that year.

There was a minor warming in mid-December and a major warming in late January

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

So we may not get cold? Then surely the next stage is to identify responses that will more than likely affect UK?

BFTP

[nick sussex]

I thought this maybe a good place to link this superb research into the MJO, its probably already lost in the discussions for the GFS 18hrs run.

Chiono and Phil were talking about comments from NOAA re a canonical negative AO pattern possibly setting up.

For those interested its cluster 4 page 42.

http://iprc.soest.hawaii.edu/users/natj/papers/Riddle_et_al_accepted_withFigs.pdf

[chionomaniac]

I thought this maybe a good place to link this superb research into the MJO, its probably already lost in the discussions for the GFS 18hrs run.

Chiono and Phil were talking about comments from NOAA re a canonical negative AO pattern possibly setting up.

For those interested its cluster 4 page 42.

http://iprc.soest.ha...ed_withFigs.pdf

Yes, a good find NIck. Cluster 4 ( the -ve NAO cluster) is vastly reduced ~28 days after phase 2 but 2.5 times more likely 10-20 days after phase 7.

Can we keep out of phase 2?

[Recretos]

Introducing, stratosphere forecasted soundings.

FIM model, 192h. Location: In close proximity of the warm core at 192h. Nothing special of course, but looks interesting. Will be even more interesting, once more decent warming gets under 192h timeframe.

Edited December 20, 2012 by Recretos

[Isolated Frost]

10c at D14 on the latest GFS 0z suite-

[Great Plum]

IF, I can't see your image but is 10c a record if it came off?

[chris55]

I wonder if the projected warmings at days 10-14 will verify. Some of the original large warmings we were seeing last week were for December 28th, which have now been reduced

But again in the longer term, around the start of Jan, we have some larger warmings again being forecast,

[bluearmy]

gfs 06z stretches the strat vortex so far by the end of the run that it splits all the way up to 7hpa. would love to know if ecm strat forecasts are doing similar to gfs ? if they were, i suspect we would begin to see caveats added to the meto 30 day forecast in a similar way to last jan

[feb1991blizzard]

gfs 06z stretches the strat vortex so far by the end of the run that it splits all the way up to 7hpa. would love to know if ecm strat forecasts are doing similar to gfs ? if they were, i suspect we would begin to see caveats added to the meto 30 day forecast in a similar way to last jan

No split on ECM run yet, very slight stretching occuring though at most levels, its a pity we have to wait until the next day to get the ECM strat forecasts though.

Edited December 20, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[bluearmy]

No split on ECM run yet, very slight stretching occuring though at most levels, its a pity we have to wait until the next day to get the ECM strat forecasts though.

no split on ncep either at day 10. i was referring to the extended ecm strat forecasts that Shuttler has access to. maybe Ian could give us an insight into whether the meto strat model has picked up on a SSW early jan ??

[Shuttler]

gfs 06z stretches the strat vortex so far by the end of the run that it splits all the way up to 7hpa. would love to know if ecm strat forecasts are doing similar to gfs ? if they were, i suspect we would begin to see caveats added to the meto 30 day forecast in a similar way to last jan

To repeat, no splitting of the PV on the ECM Ens 240-360h, but maintains it's position (at 10hPa) close to Novaya Zemyla throughout. There is a pulse of warming over Siberia in the Upper Strat by Christmas Day as we all know, but it seems a second and more enhanced pulse of warming develops over Siberia in this period and moves to the pole by 360h. It looks to me as if this could be the killer blow, coming in shortly after (and thereby tying in with a possible SSW around 10th, as has been suggested). Still time to change, though !

Incidentally, the GFS Ensemble mean out to T384 does nothing of the sort, maintaining a strong but still displaced PV in a similar area, and no warming close to the pole - 10hPa temp anomalies of -12 to -18C in/around the pole at T384. This contradicts some of the Hires output.

This begs the question - how reliable is some of the GFS HiRes output at this timescale, I've never really verified it. Should we be making greater use of Ensemble mean beyond say T240 ? Certainly if the experience of using the tropospheric output is anything to go by - though I doubt Strat forecast can be as volatile as this !

[bluearmy]

interesting shuttler that ecm ens brings warming into the pole in two weeks. is that a consistent forecast ? i was going to ask re ens strat forecasts. i recall seeing some verification stats for strat gfs which were > 0.9 for T240. i wonder if this drops off significantly thereafter in a similar way that trop ones do between days 5 and 10.

[EML Network]

the very last frame, but are we going to see a split vortex as opposed to a displaced one ?

Will be interesting to see if this shows up on future runs ?

[Shuttler]

interesting shuttler that ecm ens brings warming into the pole in two weeks. is that a consistent forecast ? i was going to ask re ens strat forecasts. i recall seeing some verification stats for strat gfs which were > 0.9 for T240. i wonder if this drops off significantly thereafter in a similar way that trop ones do between days 5 and 10.

Has been a consistent pattern for the last 3 ECM Ensemble runs, since 00z Tue 19th. Bear in mind it's developing towards the end of the run, so can't really check before that. I suspect there is a marked drop off in accuracy and consistency of the GFS strat forecasts, be good to see some verification if anyone has a useful link. ECM Ensemble mean less prone to swings between runs as you'd expect, but of course a more muted output at this timescale.

[bluearmy]

the very last frame, but are we going to see a split vortex as opposed to a displaced one ?

Will be interesting to see if this shows up on future runs

run that on a few days EML and i doubt there would much of a vortex left at all !! lets hope we can get to this picture

[Winter Monsoon]

the very last frame, but are we going to see a split vortex as opposed to a displaced one ?

Will be interesting to see if this shows up on future runs ?

Beat Me to it, However evidence points to a displacement not a split. But looking at the chart if it did split like forcast then wouldnt that heat then break through that weakish link between the two as it stretches then splits resulting in the smaller Vortex to spin off into southern canada/North america. Wouldnt this then slow/Halt the heat from rotating round the core, i would have though that the energy caught up in the heating would want to go somewhere as the other larger segment goes pretty much in the opposite direction.

What would be the result of that influx of heat into the polar region i have no idea and tbh im not near experienced enough as some reporting in here lik Chi,GP, Lorenzo, BA and Recretos etc to have any confidence that i have got any of the above right lol.

[Shuttler]

Has been a consistent pattern for the last 3 ECM Ensemble runs, since 00z Tue 19th. Bear in mind it's developing towards the end of the run, so can't really check before that. I suspect there is a marked drop off in accuracy and consistency of the GFS strat forecasts, be good to see some verification if anyone has a useful link. ECM Ensemble mean less prone to swings between runs as you'd expect, but of course a more muted output at this timescale.

Sorry, meant since 00z Wed 19th............!

[Shuttler]

the very last frame, but are we going to see a split vortex as opposed to a displaced one ?

Will be interesting to see if this shows up on future runs ?

This doesn't tie in with the GFS Ens mean at this point, which maintains a displaced vortex N.Russia, and closer to expectations. Also, the warming moving through the China/siberian sector is too aggressive. You can never rule this scenario out, but seems unlikely at present.