Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013

[Mark Bayley]

The amount of warming will change at that time range, what is good however is the continued forecast of a strong warming at the 10hpa level around the Siberian sector (can't get access to the 30hpa charts on nw).

Edited December 16, 2012 by Mark Bayley

[feb1991blizzard]

The amount of warming will change at that time range, what is good however is the continued forecast of a strong warming at the 10hpa level around the Siberian sector (can't get access to the 30hpa charts on nw).

Yes, chiono said that 10hpa going above zero would be remarkable anyway and -8 would be fine, if you want any 30hpa charts posted, just tell me the timeframe, ive posted one of them above.

[chionomaniac]

Certainly the poorest forecast for those hoping to see a SSW in the last few days.

[feb1991blizzard]

Certainly the poorest forecast for those hoping to see a SSW in the last few days.

Are you referring to just the 18z or the NWP output in general over the last 24 hours?, i thought all was not going to plan going by the last few runs, please dont say it is all going to implode at the last minute like the tropospheric forecast 10 days ago.

[Isolated Frost]

Well the vortex would be well maintained (as in survive) well with the forecasted warming on the 18z- as well as the lack of cold moving into the cold core- plenty of opportunity for change though and the ECMWF is coming into 'warming' territory now.

-21c at 240- hopefully tomorrow's 12z pulls that further

[KTtom]

Blimey, this thread beginning to sound like the model thread during the fabled easterly......'its coming', 'its coming'....'Huston we have a problem...'

Edited December 17, 2012 by KTtom

[MattH]

The 12Z EC from yesterday still shows, in my opinion, not a particularly bad outlook. However, saying that the discussions and various charts continue to seemingly be within a time frame which never feels like it's getting any closer.

The warming out towards 216hr/240hr at 30hPa is clearly there, but isn't any significant at that level as yet;

http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ec.php?alert=1&level=30&forecast=all&lng=eng

The last chart, again though at 240hrs, looks promising in terms of the position of the main vortex and particularly so regarding the marked height rises evident over Canada. If you move up towards the 10hPa level then the warming is far more marked and noteworthy, but clearly that depends on how much of a rise in temperature you want and/or need;

http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ec.php?alert=1&level=10&forecast=all&lng=eng

Will the warmth get entrained into the main vortex over Russia?..who knows, but the above set of charts still look quite impressive and noteworthy to me. The resultant and potential warmth still creates some reduction in the zonal winds and also an increase in temperatures;

http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ts.php?plot=fluxes&alert=1&lng=eng

http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ts.php?plot=temps&alert=1&lng=eng

What continues to stand out however is the persistence and strength of the wave 1 activity, surely of which can only be a good thing and there are tentative signs of wave 2 perhaps increasing later in the forecast period;

http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/eczm.php?alert=1&forecast=all&var=ha1&lng=eng

As I mentioned though, a lot of the forecast charts for a week or two continue to be noteworthy but at a time frame that doesn't feel as though it is getting any nearer. The signaled warmth has always been a feature for later in December, so we'll just have to wait and see I guess, but I am slowly beginning to get an 'unpleasant' feeling in my stomach that unless we get a SSW then the broader outlook may well not amount to much apart from perhaps a week or two of cold(ish) weather. Clearly we are only 17 days into winter and there is a long way to go, but January, in my opinion, is one of the best 4 week windows to get some 'proper' cold weather as otherwise time can quickly move on and you need some really noteworthy synoptics to deliver the goods in February as the sun's strength grows ever stronger.

Long way to go, but I hope these constant signs and signals eventually make it to T+24hr!

Cheers, Matt.

[Duane S.]

Decent looking zonal wind profile at D10

At 10mb, although not as extreme as previous output, things look very good still, I would imagine this should cause serious disruption to the stratospheric vortex..

One thing this year I have noticed regards wave 1 & 2 forecasts is that they have often been under-estimated in terms of intensisty out at D8/9/10. Worst case they don't seem to be any less intense than originally forecast by the time it reaches D0. Or I am imagining that?

Edited December 17, 2012 by s4lancia

[MR EXTREMES]

The 12Z EC from yesterday still shows, in my opinion, not a particularly bad outlook. However, saying that the discussions and various charts continue to seemingly be within a time frame which never feels like it's getting any closer.

The warming out towards 216hr/240hr at 30hPa is clearly there, but isn't any significant at that level as yet;

http://wekuw.met.fu-...ast=all&lng=eng

The last chart, again though at 240hrs, looks promising in terms of the position of the main vortex and particularly so regarding the marked height rises evident over Canada. If you move up towards the 10hPa level then the warming is far more marked and noteworthy, but clearly that depends on how much of a rise in temperature you want and/or need;

http://wekuw.met.fu-...ast=all&lng=eng

Will the warmth get entrained into the main vortex over Russia?..who knows, but the above set of charts still look quite impressive and noteworthy to me. The resultant and potential warmth still creates some reduction in the zonal winds and also an increase in temperatures;

http://wekuw.met.fu-...alert=1&lng=eng

http://wekuw.met.fu-...alert=1&lng=eng

What continues to stand out however is the persistence and strength of the wave 1 activity, surely of which can only be a good thing and there are tentative signs of wave 2 perhaps increasing later in the forecast period;

http://wekuw.met.fu-...var=ha1&lng=eng

As I mentioned though, a lot of the forecast charts for a week or two continue to be noteworthy but at a time frame that doesn't feel as though it is getting any nearer. The signaled warmth has always been a feature for later in December, so we'll just have to wait and see I guess, but I am slowly beginning to get an 'unpleasant' feeling in my stomach that unless we get a SSW then the broader outlook may well not amount to much apart from perhaps a week or two of cold(ish) weather. Clearly we are only 17 days into winter and there is a long way to go, but January, in my opinion, is one of the best 4 week windows to get some 'proper' cold weather as otherwise time can quickly move on and you need some really noteworthy synoptics to deliver the goods in February as the sun's strength grows ever stronger.

Long way to go, but I hope these constant signs and signals eventually make it to T+24hr!

Cheers, Matt.

i think u may have made a miss quote in your post as sun grows ever stronger oops i dont think its anywhere as strong as its peak in november septemeber.

so maybe will can remove this factor.

http://www.solarham.net/

although i can in your defence say is the sept and november peak in sun levels is it going to have a lag effect to remove good strat warming event and remove the possiblity of the strat teleconnection ect ect its a possibility because it seems that all the time things are getting downgraded.

one for gp do u think the winter lrf should be taken down until more confidence and more closer range singles start to show there hand?

not saying in anyway i dont think your input is valid infact i think its brillant work.

Edited December 17, 2012 by model rollercoaster

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

MR, Matt refers to as the day lengthens so the sun strengthens....its to do with how long its above the horizon and high it gets in the sky, not on its sunspot output

BFTP

[Interitus]

i think u may have made a miss quote in your post as sun grows ever stronger oops i dont think its anywhere as strong as its peak in november septemeber.

so maybe will can remove this factor.

http://www.solarham.net/

although i can in your defence say is the sept and november peak in sun levels is it going to have a lag effect to remove good strat warming event and remove the possiblity of the strat teleconnection ect ect its a possibility because it seems that all the time things are getting downgraded.

one for gp do u think the winter lrf should be taken down until more confidence and more closer range singles start to show there hand?

not saying in anyway i dont think your input is valid infact i think its brillant work.

I think he was simply meaning as the sun's height and strength we feel increases in February.

edit too slow!

Edited December 17, 2012 by Interitus

[-uksnow-]

06z seems to bring us a nice burst of warmth

Followed by

Nice integration into the vortex at 384? Novice speaking here, but willing to learn.

[Mark Bayley]

Can't really add much to Matts post as it sums the current outlook quite nicely i feel. What is interesting is the forecast increase in wave breaking, not only wave break one but tentative signs of an increase of wave break two, with the forecasts improving ever so slightly over the past few days.

Wave breaking often peaks just before a stratospheric warming event (Cohen, 2011), and what do we see forecast?

Edit: And the GFS (always forget to look at these!). And as BA states, seems to be getting round to the Canadian side at 30hpa

Zonal wind are also set to decrease to their lowest levels so far this winter, with even a reversal at 80n

I would suggest from my limited knowledge that the outlook is positive, and that the forecast wave breaking, forecast temperature rise at the 10hpa and 30hpa level, and lowering of zonal winds, should lead to notable disruption of the polar vortex as we progress through the first half of January.

Edited December 17, 2012 by Mark Bayley

[bluearmy]

I'm sure ed will be along later but the last two gfs runs plus the berlin update have looked ok to me. temps certainly rising on the canadian side as the warmth is integrated into the vortex and no sign that the source is stopping anytime soon

[Glacier Point]

After an indifferent Sunday for GFS strat forecasts, a definate trend being retouted by the GFS today.

I'm actually thinking we have two warming episodes going on here, one in the lower middle stratosphere centred over Canada and a second more focussed in the upper stratosphere.

The lower / middle warming continues to be evident within 10 days and reaches peak insentity around the end of the Year. The second is manifested with a really strong uptick in temperatures in the upper stratosphere (check out 1 hpa values). This one doesn't get going until New Year.

If the 12z GFS is to be believed, which was characterised by a succession of deep upper lows (not all going east to west !!), we have a series of further wave 1 episodes down the line, and all also that toxic combination of a Euro / Russian ridge - Aleutian trough around 24th December which argues for a wave 1 and wave 2 response around 13th January (as well as a possible earlier disturbance arising from tomorrow and impacting the upper vortex by 7th January). The timing of the mid January wave 1 / 2 disturbance of obvious interest if the MJO is heading into the western hemisphere at this time.

Edited December 17, 2012 by Glacier Point

[lorenzo]

Here are some charts from CPC site the seem to also show the warming at different layers.

01-10hPa - you can follow the pattern on this warming as it moves down.

Then the middle layer where there is less warming evident

Before becoming a stronger pattern again at 70hPa and 100hPa on the Canadian side, seems to resonate with the trop view at this juncture almost like someone performed extraction surgery on any vortex on that half of the hemisphere.

Fascinating to see what is up next, can one strong ridge create the connect that will deal the Vortex it's knockout blow, and will it be Ed's Greenland Ridge..

Glad Stewart wrote above about those upper lows not all going in same direction, thought I was seeing things !

Edited December 17, 2012 by lorenzo

[Snowman31]

Hi, sorry to ask because i'm sure its been mentioned, but can someone give me a link to cohens times of weather patterns leading to a SSW, as I heard someone mention that a ridge from the SW is part of the process. Thanks

[Duane S.]

After an indifferent Sunday for GFS strat forecasts, a definate trend being retouted by the GFS today.

I'm actually thinking we have two warming episodes going on here, one in the lower middle stratosphere centred over Canada and a second more focussed in the upper stratosphere.

The lower / middle warming continues to be evident within 10 days and reaches peak insentity around the end of the Year. The second is manifested with a really strong uptick in temperatures in the upper stratosphere (check out 1 hpa values). This one doesn't get going until New Year.

If the 12z GFS is to be believed, which was characterised by a succession of deep upper lows (not all going east to west !!), we have a series of further wave 1 episodes down the line, and all also that toxic combination of a Euro / Russian ridge - Aleutian trough around 24th December which argues for a wave 1 and wave 2 response around 13th January (as well as a possible earlier disturbance arising from tomorrow and impacting the upper vortex by 7th January). The timing of the mid January wave 1 / 2 disturbance of obvious interest if the MJO is heading into the western hemisphere at this time.

Stewart, what part do you think the MJO is going to play for us in the near term? Presume we want it out of phase 2 into 3?

Not sure of the reliability of these but Asian forecasts seems to go against Euros..

[chionomaniac]

Definitely a better day for the strat forecasts today.

Whereas the majority of forecasts would be likely to create a SSW, I am very mindful of the fact that presently, they are only just longer range forecasts.

Tropospherically we still are seeing very disturbed vortex forecasts - just waiting for the opportunity for that disturbed vortex to lead to some prolonged cold for our shores.

A waiting and watching game for me!

[Recretos]

Tropospherically we still are seeing very disturbed vortex forecasts

This chart probably doesn't belong in here, but just to give some support to Mr. Chionomaniac.

My opinion: Having a negative AO going into the timeframe of major stratospheric vortex disruptions, is nothing but positive (no pun intended) in my view.

EDIT:

I was playing around with the reanalysis tools and I made an analog of January 500mb anomaly with conditions: December 30mb CW (Canadian Warming) in an east QBO and a Polar vortex disposition in December. Also added is the SLP anomaly.

Edited December 17, 2012 by Recretos

[MattH]

Definitely stepping it up a notch this morning going off the 12Z ECM from yesterday. The warming is now more pronounced at the 30hPa with clearly a well displaced vortex by the end of the year along with a major region of height rises over Canada along with a region of higher temps etc;

http://wekuw.met.fu-...ecmwf30f216.gif

http://wekuw.met.fu-...ecmwf30f240.gif

Rise up another 20 hPa to the 10hPa level and again the warming is really quite noteworthy by 216hr and 240hr with it perhaps showing signs of being entrained into the vortex over Asia;

http://wekuw.met.fu-...ecmwf10f216.gif

http://wekuw.met.fu-...ecmwf10f240.gif

The wave 1 activity remains as consistent as well with values in excess of 1200/1300[m'] which is clearly a forecast which has been evident for a number of days. The other features that really stand out are the expected wave 1 activity on the available graph and the zonal winds;

http://wekuw.met.fu-...alert=1&lng=eng

Note the predicted wave 1 activity through late December it is nearly 'through the roof' despite wave 2 activity lagging behind. Despite that that seems to be a pretty impressive value and prediction which can only help the cause.

Zonal winds at D0 and then also at D10 are markedly different;

http://wekuw.met.fu-...mwfzm_u_a12.gif

http://wekuw.met.fu-...wfzm_u_f240.gif

Perhaps this isn't a surprise given the other expected and forecast variables. The 30hPa forecast from the netweather site continues to show a displaced vortex and perhaps a 2nd warming or at least a continuation of what is expected by late December and I think this has been mentioned in previous posts, into the New Year;

http://cdn.nwstatic..../384/npst30.png

As I said yesterday it's about getting these quite impressive forecast charts into the more reliable time frame, but still the consistency of some of the variables is quite impressive to say the least. Can't help but think that the mid-winter period, or perhaps a touch earlier, could provide very fruitful and for a change January could be the 'main' winter month this winter.

Cheers, Matt.

NB: EC 32 day update shows higher pressure once again become more influential across Greenland and surrounding areas with time as low pressure dominates to the W or SW, so an increasing signal for a -AO and a -NAO pattern. The ECMWF 32 day forecast for the MJO takes it out of phase 1 and firmly into phase 2 and 3 as well FYI.

Edited December 18, 2012 by MattHugo

[TEITS]

Cheers for the welcome update Matt. I will also add that i've also enjoyed the contributions from Recretos.

As you say despite our recent run of cold winters these past few years Jan has been somewhat disappointing. So it would be great to see this potential in mid winter.

[Weather-history]

10hpa at 384hrs

http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20121218;time=00;ext=384;file=npst10;sess=409855cd748bcd0f8fcdac24ac87346a;

[feb1991blizzard]

I take it that this chart is as a direct result of yesterdays massive area of high heights over the arctic on the ECMWF 12z run and will probably be toned down accordingly tommorow, still great to see though and could well be a trend as we go through the next couple of weeks.

[Shuttler]

The ECM Ens mean for 240-360h has a very stretched PV (at 10hPa) from northern Scandi to northern Siberia, before re-intensifying into a more focussed vortex over central Siberia. In this period the upper strat warming (evident at 10-30hPa) over Siberia remains there, rather than propogating to the pole as per the Hi-Res GFS, and actually weakens slightly in situ in terms of anomalies. In fact over the Pole itself temperatures in the Upper Strat are stable or even cool slightly, with no major warming evident here.

Meanwhile, the canadian warming mainly evident at 50-100hPa intensifies in this period, with marked height rises becoming focussed on northern Canada.