Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013

[snowking]

Wave 1 activity consistently modelled by the ECM in recent days to wane very slightly, and then increase once again:

http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/eczm.php?alert=1&forecast=all&var=ha1&lng=eng

Wave 2 activity showing tentative signs of increase right at the top of the stratosphere too (and has done for a couple of days now):

http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/eczm.php?alert=1&forecast=all&var=ha2&lng=eng

SK

[Ice BIast]

The GFS 00Z maintains the theme.

[FrenchScotPilot1]

Maybe slightly off topic but would it be a link with the apparition of Polar Stratospheric Clouds in the UK skies last night?

Edited December 10, 2012 by FrenchScotPilot1

[bluearmy]

if the fi gfs strat runs are right (and up till now they have been quite reliable), any attempt to reform a trop canadian segment will have no strat support whatsoever out till the new year. assuming we are due some further wave 2 activity around the new year, how will that affect a displaced siberian vortex?

[chionomaniac]

if the fi gfs strat runs are right (and up till now they have been quite reliable), any attempt to reform a trop canadian segment will have no strat support whatsoever out till the new year. assuming we are due some further wave 2 activity around the new year, how will that affect a displaced siberian vortex?

BA, I very much suspect that the whole vortex will go by the new year with the forecast wave 1 activity. What we can't predict at the moment is where any residual energy will be left at this point. Latest GFS run keeps that 10 hPa warming, so there is a very definite signal there.

[Interitus]

Maybe slightly off topic but would it be a link with the apparition of Polar Stratospheric Clouds in the UK skies last night?

Interesting, would've be good to see these but probably too much light pollution here in northwest England.

The clouds are associated with the very low stratospheric temperatures, warming reduces them.

[FrenchScotPilot1]

I'll put some pics tonight.

So it just confirms that the strat temperature over the UK is very cold. In line with what models tell us for now.

It doesn't seem to herald anything else then.

Edited December 10, 2012 by FrenchScotPilot1

[kold weather]

BA, I very much suspect that the whole vortex will go by the new year with the forecast wave 1 activity. What we can't predict at the moment is where any residual energy will be left at this point. Latest GFS run keeps that 10 hPa warming, so there is a very definite signal there.

I'm worried that the Atlantic is in a pretty poor set-up, we constantly seem to be seeing energy surging across the Atlantic, this is 2 cold spells that were modelled that were not they should have been due to the sheer amount of energy tearing across the Atlantic.

Suppose its something we just won't know about...but what I will say is the set-up in terms of the amount of energy on tonights 12z GFS is more like February in FI...but the pattern itsel is still not a good one at all overall, despite the tendency to get cutoff lows near our neck of the woods

[Catacol]

I'm worried that the Atlantic is in a pretty poor set-up, we constantly seem to be seeing energy surging across the Atlantic, this is 2 cold spells that were modelled that were not they should have been due to the sheer amount of energy tearing across the Atlantic.

Suppose its something we just won't know about...but what I will say is the set-up in terms of the amount of energy on tonights 12z GFS is more like February in FI...but the pattern itsel is still not a good one at all overall, despite the tendency to get cutoff lows near our neck of the woods

Well... I'm not as skilled as some on here, but if the vortex breaks up completely then surely the current atlantic profile will be of little relevance? Knowing our luck so far this winter any residual energy will just drop south east out of Canada!! - but let's not be too gloomy.

I wonder whether the fly in the ointment in all the optimism early doors this winter has actually been the cold strat profile through November. I know that the troposphere seemed to remain relatively unaffected in terms of wind speeds, but is it not possible that upper wind speed in November has given more of a residual westerly component to the pattern itself, even if mean wind speeds at ground level have been unremarkable? This might partly explain the 2 failed easterly episodes so far.

Or am I just talking total nonsense?

[Ninman]

Well... I'm not as skilled as some on here, but if the vortex breaks up completely then surely the current atlantic profile will be of little relevance? Knowing our luck so far this winter any residual energy will just drop south east out of Canada!! - but let's not be too gloomy.

I wonder whether the fly in the ointment in all the optimism early doors this winter has actually been the cold strat profile through November. I know that the troposphere seemed to remain relatively unaffected in terms of wind speeds, but is it not possible that upper wind speed in November has given more of a residual westerly component to the pattern itself, even if mean wind speeds at ground level have been unremarkable? This might partly explain the 2 failed easterly episodes so far.

Or am I just talking total nonsense?

It looks like the NAO and AO forecasts are having problems trying to understand whats going on also - the AO looks like a scribbling on an etch-a-sketch:

[lorenzo]

It's getting hot in here so take off all your Vorticity..

Gif of 1 hpa at 10 days.

240 heights

[-uksnow-]

×תה יכול בבקשה ×œ×©×™× ×ת ×–×” בחלק ×נגלית בבקשה קרי×

[lorenzo]

Yes, eded, it is the gradual warming of the stratosphere at different levels.

Or if you really wish to continue the conversation in Hebrew.

רמה הגבוהה ביותר של ההתחממות ר×תה ב1hpa, ×זור מפתח ×”×•× 10 hPa

Edited December 10, 2012 by lorenzo

[snowking]

It's getting hot in here so take off all your Vorticity..

The fact that i've just spent the last 2 mins laughing at this is proof enough that, in the words of Jen from IT Crowd, Ich Bin Ein (Weather) Nerd

Anyone who did not laugh at this - you should be ashamed, and clearly still have to reach the dizzying heights of weather nerdism (its been estimated this height is around 30hPA....)

And incidentally Lorenzo, as a sound man as well, I think we should record this as the Stratosphere Thread's xmas single...feat. GP and Chio of course. The rest of the contributors to the thread will have to play Bez from the Happy Mondays, and just dance around a bit.

Anyway....

I notice you were mentioning the potential MJO kick earlier

Though of course the worry there is that the movement towards phase 2 could be problematic (and actually rather fits the current modelling in the medium range)

With the notable exception of the heights over NE Siberia as the PV moves to there in the coming period.

I remember GP suggesting that the modelling had been over-reacting to the MJO phase 2 signal, and that the high AAM GWO phases would likely over-ride the signal, but with the GWO signal now becoming low amplitude:

And a pretty sharp fall in AAM:

I would hazard a guess that the MJO signal is back in charge....and so we need it to stay away from any contemplation of phase 2 ideally.

Bearing all this in mind, I think now more than ever we need some help from the stratosphere at the moment.

Funny that the analogue year should be 1968-69:

And then just a short time later:

Funnily enough, those Greenland height rises were as a result of vortex transfer across the NE Siberia, though it took some time for the energy across the atlantic to recede and allow a mid-atlantic ridge to trigger the above setup.

So some despair, but a little hope at the end

SK

[feb1991blizzard]

Are you going to do the honours again snowking around 11pm and give us an indication of what the control run is like please, most grateful if you can.

[snowking]

Are you going to do the honours again snowking around 11pm and give us an indication of what the control run is like please, most grateful if you can.

Sure will my friend...im hoping it might be the best model run we've seen in the past few days - will post over in the model thread

SK

[feb1991blizzard]

Sure will my friend...im hoping it might be the best model run we've seen in the past few days - will post over in the model thread

SK

Cheers, i have to say i am not too hopefull now regards december, any stratospherica impacts likely to be felt in the New year, really feel we need a good monthly soon.

[Isolated Frost]

Sure will my friend...im hoping it might be the best model run we've seen in the past few days - will post over in the model thread

SK

How do you get these ? Forecaster or previous one ?

Heights building towards northwest territories on the EC det-

notable shift in the vortex- random look at 20hpa signifies the real time movement over the next 10 days, a loop as Lorenzo had shown really signifies the change that the middle atmosphere is about to experience-

Early signs of the Pole returning to above average...

[lorenzo]

The GIF one was for the top of the Strat IF at 1 hpa, still think that GWO is more pertinent than MJO at present, what I meant for an MJO kick was that we could do with some more amplitude there, something akin to it jumping over and missing the NAO+ phases would also help. Some posts on the Am Wx forums about Nino and the temp anomalies in the Pacific, am sure Stewart is all over it and will update us in due course. One thing is for sure this Vortex relocation has created a lot to look at !

[FrenchScotPilot1]

Here's a picture of nacreous clouds last night over Scotland:

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/16814-gallery/

[Weather-history]

A question: what are the favourable stratospheric conditions for the UK for nacreous clouds to be seen here? A northerly stratospheric flow if you can have one?

There were the spectacular displays during mid February 1996.

Weird I ask this question then they are seen.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

The fact that i've just spent the last 2 mins laughing at this is proof enough that, in the words of Jen from IT Crowd, Ich Bin Ein (Weather) Nerd

Anyone who did not laugh at this - you should be ashamed, and clearly still have to reach the dizzying heights of weather nerdism (its been estimated this height is around 30hPA....)

And incidentally Lorenzo, as a sound man as well, I think we should record this as the Stratosphere Thread's xmas single...feat. GP and Chio of course. The rest of the contributors to the thread will have to play Bez from the Happy Mondays, and just dance around a bit.

Anyway....

I notice you were mentioning the potential MJO kick earlier

Though of course the worry there is that the movement towards phase 2 could be problematic (and actually rather fits the current modelling in the medium range)

With the notable exception of the heights over NE Siberia as the PV moves to there in the coming period.

I remember GP suggesting that the modelling had been over-reacting to the MJO phase 2 signal, and that the high AAM GWO phases would likely over-ride the signal, but with the GWO signal now becoming low amplitude:

And a pretty sharp fall in AAM:

I would hazard a guess that the MJO signal is back in charge....and so we need it to stay away from any contemplation of phase 2 ideally.

Bearing all this in mind, I think now more than ever we need some help from the stratosphere at the moment.

Funny that the analogue year should be 1968-69:

And then just a short time later:

Funnily enough, those Greenland height rises were as a result of vortex transfer across the NE Siberia, though it took some time for the energy across the atlantic to recede and allow a mid-atlantic ridge to trigger the above setup.

So some despair, but a little hope at the end

SK

Judging by the analogues from 68/69 it's easy to see once the vortex repositioning over Siberia has time to settle im tempted to say we are "likely" to see hights build over Greenland, it seems the vortex then was stronger than it is forecast to be over the next wk , so maybe a few positives to take from things.

Remember GP talked about this false dawn as the models began to get to grips with things in regards to the vortex, Iv mentioned this a lot recently in the model thred but I still see what he was saying because he has been so good at the whole strat and vortex situation I don't see a reason why this is not as he thought ? I no we are going to see the Atlantic this wk now Iv come to terms with it, but what happens next is quite uncertain and zonal isn't the favoured outcome I would of thought.

Edited December 10, 2012 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[chionomaniac]

Lovely!

[kold weather]

I think that would probably do the job, we need to hope we are in the position where we can take advantage of it and don't have a upper trough sitting in the atlantic like we are going to see for the best part of the next 10 days (I HATE such set-ups with a massive passion)

the PV is JUST clinging on by 240hrs as it is, any decent warming will finish it off, I'm sure!

[chris55]

Out of interest, we know the PV is headed towards Siberia and out of the Canadian sector, this was pretty well forecast on here after the initial split a few weeks back. But where is it going to go after this? Anyone know, or will it just begin to reform at the pole, unless we get some major disruption, ie SSW?

Edited December 10, 2012 by chris55