Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013

[Glacier Point]

I was looking today around 7th December for a forecast anomaly pattern to fit a precursor wave 1, however day 7 looks a bit more plausible, particularly if the next +AAM spike fits that timescale.

This is interesting as it teams up a possible wave 1 and wave 2 strike on the pv towards the end of the month.

[SteveB]

I love this thread, really is ground breaking stuff.

[bluearmy]

The fi 30hpa charts getting better and better. Sberian vortex and nothing left over canada. Its becoming a trend and the last time deep fi gfs spotted a strat trend it was the vortex split which verified.

[Lee Smith]

The fi 30hpa charts getting better and better. Sberian vortex and nothing left over canada. Its becoming a trend and the last time deep fi gfs spotted a strat trend it was the vortex split which verified.

a long freeze then blue army

[gottolovethisweather]

I'm not sure if any of you strat guys n gals have seen this, but the MetO have blogged about an SSW in recent days.

http://metofficenews...per-atmosphere/

Edited December 5, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Lee Smith]

I was looking today around 7th December for a forecast anomaly pattern to fit a precursor wave 1, however day 7 looks a bit more plausible, particularly if the next +AAM spike fits that timescale.

This is interesting as it teams up a possible wave 1 and wave 2 strike on the pv towards the end of the month.

stewart do you rekom this freeze will continue well in to january

[johnholmes]

I'm not sure if any of you strat guys n gals have seen this, but the MetO have blogged about an SSW in recent days.

http://metofficenews...per-atmosphere/

had a good sleep?

chio posted the link yesterday and several folk gave congrats to him!

[gottolovethisweather]

had a good sleep?

chio posted the link yesterday and several folk gave congrats to him!

Yes thanks, JH.

Just shows, that you need to be on the ball with this stratosphere malarkey and I'm clearly behind the times.

[bluearmy]

ed, the ep flux change is still forecast in a few days time. have you noticed anything in the mid dec forecast charts that tie in with this or will it be a longer lag time? i sense a gentle pick up in mean zonal winds across the higher latitudes although the axis of the strong upper zonal winds turns towards the tropics later in the run which should mean we still fail to see any 'oomph' coming into the trop vortex as we head towards the final third dec

[chionomaniac]

First of all, I want to introduce myself: I am Anthony but you may know me better as "HM" from Americanwx. I just wanted to say hello and tell you all what a great thread this is and that I regularly read it. Finally, I agree with your last sentence here. I'm trying to warn everyone here in the eastern US to wait it out and that mild bouts will likely continue through the end of the month.

Hi HM

Great to see you here!

Look forward to some of your great posts this side of the Atlantic!

[chionomaniac]

ed, the ep flux change is still forecast in a few days time. have you noticed anything in the mid dec forecast charts that tie in with this or will it be a longer lag time? i sense a gentle pick up in mean zonal winds across the higher latitudes although the axis of the strong upper zonal winds turns towards the tropics later in the run which should mean we still fail to see any 'oomph' coming into the trop vortex as we head towards the final third dec

I think that this is very much associated with the translation of the polar vortex from split to displaced. The vortex is fairly well displaced from the pole -

Not enough to technically create the reversal seen in a SSW - but enough to leave the opportunity for significant height rises in the resultant 'void'.

I don't think that we will see a new split just yet but the continued poleward EP flux can only be a good thing to maintaining the displaced vortex.

[bluearmy]

NCEP is different by day 10 with the vortex core displaced to n siberia rather than ne canada

[Eugene]

Excellent thread and very interesting to read, looks very promising regarding our winter prospects and it looks like January could well be the coldest month of the winter.

Can the experts give their opinion on the odds on the possibility of January being the coldest January since 1979/1987?....and what are our chances of a severe winter with all three winter months cold to very cold this winter or in winters in the near future?, something we haven't seen since 1962/63 though 1978/79 was a severe winter December 1978 wasn't cold.

Edited December 5, 2012 by Eugene

[Methuselah]

Excellent thread and very interesting to read, looks very promising regarding our winter prospects and it looks like January could well be the coldest month of the winter.

Can the experts give their opinion on the odds on the possibility of January being the coldest January since 1979/1987?....and what are our chances of a severe winter with all three winter months cold to very cold this winter or in winters in the near future?, something we haven't seen since perhaps the winter of 1978/79.

Coldest since 2010?

[Eugene]

Yes Jan 2010 was very cold but i think January 1987 was even colder and January 1979 the last January below 0C, with Dec 2010 being below 0C it would be even better to have Dec's 2010 synoptics occur in January when the seas surrounding us are colder and europe colder, it will be very difficult to achieve though as January can be the stormiest month of the year.

I think you mean the winter of 2009/10 which was the 8th coldest since 1900 so i assume you are going for this winter to be similar to that one in coldness, ok that would do me but i hope for something even colder if possible

Edited December 5, 2012 by Eugene

[syed2878]

i like to add my cogratulations to chio to regarding your work on the strat and all the help u gave me to understand.

[bluearmy]

NCEP is different by day 10 with the vortex core displaced to n siberia rather than ne canada

though the 12z is different by holding the core of the vortex over canada (as per ecm) and then releasing it towards n siberia which may well explain the difference in that part of the run tropospherically compared to the previous output.

[CanadaAl]

judging by the steep gradient of the temperate in this graph, could we be on to (dare i say it) A SSW event?

[Snowy Liverpool]

judging by the steep gradient of the temperate in this graph, could we be on to (dare i say it) A SSW event?

Met Office have confirmed a minor one has taken place. I think someone posted the link a couple pages back.

[snowking]

For info, I tend to find this one more representative:

http://www.cpc.ncep....re/30mb9065.gif

I'd suggest bookmarking that one as it will update. But it shows the exact same in this instance essentially

SK

[chionomaniac]

Met Office have confirmed a minor one has taken place. I think someone posted the link a couple pages back.

I don't think this one will become close to reaching the criteria for a SSW. However, could it be classified as a Canadian Warming.....?

[Lee Smith]

I don't think this one will become close to reaching the criteria for a SSW. However, could it be classified as a Canadian Warming.....?

what are the implications of a canadian warming rather than a ssw

[chionomaniac]

what are the implications of a canadian warming rather than a ssw

Disruption and displacement of the polar vortex in the right circumstances - the kind that the small thing of a slight easterly flow may develop if that displacement favours blocking on our side....................

[Lee Smith]

Disruption and displacement of the polar vortex in the right circumstances - the kind that the small thing of a slight easterly flow may develop if that displacement favours blocking on our side....................

do you rekon that this cold weather will carry on and on in to the new year

[tcc]

do you rekon that this cold weather will carry on and on in to the new year

Dude, you can ask as many people as you like, but the answer is going to be the same. No one knows what is going to happen, all that we can do is try and look for possible trends via various Teleconnections. So I suggest stop asking the same question over and over and read what Chi, GP, J Holmes etc are saying and what they think may happen, and you'll get your answer!