Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013

[cooling climate]

Nice to see warming now taking place up through the atmosphere to the

30mb level and beyond.Hopefully this is what the GFS model was picking

up in the extended range with the HLB's in the troposphere.If so then

as you say some excellent synoptics should unfold over the coming days

and also much colder synoptics as well.

[Ice BIast]

So Chiono, the GFS seems to be showing some interesting synoptics like you said it might due to the EP Flux, but may I ask, what exactly is the EP Flux and why does poleward flux result in such a difference to the PV? Thanks.

[chionomaniac]

So Chiono, the GFS seems to be showing some interesting synoptics like you said it might due to the EP Flux, but may I ask, what exactly is the EP Flux and why does poleward flux result in such a difference to the PV? Thanks.

It's the momentum flux from the troposphere into the stratosphere ie the direction and heat transfer from the troposphere to the strat.

If this flux is directed towards the tropics then the polar vortex momentum is maintained. When it directed towards the pole the momentum of the polar vortex is being interrupted.

If you have a whirlpool and place the flat end of an oar blade in line with the flow then you will have a similar effect as a equatorward flux. If you put a couple of oars in the whirlpool with the blades at right angles then the flow will get disturbed tremendously - similar to the poleward flux.

[chionomaniac]

This is a really big split on the latest GFS run at 50 hpa

La La land I know - but nonetheless an incredible split to be modelled!!

[chris55]

This is a really big split on the latest GFS run at 50 hpa

La La land I know - but nonetheless an incredible split to be modelled!!

Hi Chiono, I'm not sure at what height the chart above you posted is for, but from a laymen's point of view is the 12z FI GFS a good representation of such a split? (or is the above chart directly linked to the 500hpa chart?)

Edited December 1, 2012 by chris55

[chionomaniac]

Hi Chiono, I'm not sure at what height the chart above you posted is for, but from a laymen's point of view is the 12z FI GFS a good representation of such a split? (or is the above chart directly linked to the 500hpa chart?)

Yes

[AWD]

Are things starting to turn?

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/html_e/pole30_n.html

[chionomaniac]

We still have a favourable EP flux this morning.

[bluearmy]

gfs fi seems intent on taking the strat vortex from ne canada across n greenland and then swinging across n scandi to reside in n siberia by the end of week 2. the gefs have the trop vortex slowly thinning out and stretching from n canada to eastern siberia. no strong indication of where any trop vortex centre likely to be once ne canada has been dropped. i suspect ed has far more data which illustrates better the shape that the strat vortex is likely to be in by the time we get to mid month. its axis on the mean trop output would certainly promote height rises to our n and ne.

[chionomaniac]

gfs fi seems intent on taking the strat vortex from ne canada across n greenland and then swinging across n scandi to reside in n siberia by the end of week 2. the gefs have the trop vortex slowly thinning out and stretching from n canada to eastern siberia. no strong indication of where any trop vortex centre likely to be once ne canada has been dropped. i suspect ed has far more data which illustrates better the shape that the strat vortex is likely to be in by the time we get to mid month. its axis on the mean trop output would certainly promote height rises to our n and ne.

The last two GFS runs have shown the same at 100 hPa , Nick.

Day 10 - vortex NE Canada

Day 16 Vortex transferred back to NE Siberia

Natural progression is for raised height to our NE to raise slowly retrogressing westwards as the transfer is complete.

That signal is now coming through the GEFS H500 anomalies day 11-15.

Confidenceof this occurring fairly high - confidence of achieving a decent easterly - who knows at this point.

[lorenzo]

My pick of the strat charts this morning aside from the flux and temp series above is just a just a run through the 120hrs out for height and temps of which show temps in red, first time I have spotted this and also zonal winds below the 10 metres per second at 100/70/50 hpa and just 10.2 @ 30hpa.

Illustrates the crippling effects on the vortex this split and reformation have had, you get the feeling the real core of energy or propensity for it to regain strength has been heavily diluted.

Just looked back to grab a zonal wind chart from start of November, with one from today.

You get the sense that this killer blow is indeed just around the corner..

[johnholmes]

Looking at my simple guide to the Stratosphere it could be that the temperature is shortly going to cross the 'normal' line at 30mb. My VERY rough work suggests that 20-25 days down the line is when cold weather IF it is to affect the UK, colder than now=deep cold. Time will tell if my primary school level of Stratosphere impacts has any truth in it? That assumes that the temperature line climbs well above the normal line in the first place!

[shuggee]

That's my understanding too John. My Ladybird book on the Stratosphere has a Janet and John (is it you!?) description that says exactly that.

[bluearmy]

thats a shame then as its forecast to head back to averge again after climbing a bit above. Of course if you are right this thread would only be on page 2!

[Snowstorm1]

Looking at my simple guide to the Stratosphere it could be that the temperature is shortly going to cross the 'normal' line at 30mb. My VERY rough work suggests that 20-25 days down the line is when cold weather IF it is to affect the UK, colder than now=deep cold. Time will tell if my primary school level of Stratosphere impacts has any truth in it? That assumes that the temperature line climbs well above the normal line in the first place!

That would lead us into christmas day..

[chris55]

Strat thread is a bit quiet, anything happening up there?

[Bishop Brennan]

Strat thread is a bit quiet, anything happening up there?

Agreed, surprisingly quiet the past couple of days given the overall outlook. Maybe Chio is still recovering from the NW christmas party!

Temps at 30-hPa have finally, for the first time since early October, climbed above average..........encouraging sign.

Bish

[chionomaniac]

There is no major change other than the PV is set to head back to the pole day 16 as wave activity decreases.

No other major changes.

Oh and I have a dislike for the JMA polar 10hPa and 30 hPa charts.

They are the close up photo equivalent whereas the other charts (GFS and ECM) are the panoramic videos..... I know which I would rather look at to get the best info!

[snowking]

Well in terms of the EP Flux, still forecast to point poleward

Wave 1 activity forecast to peak around day 5:

With wave 2 activity still going strong for the next 48 hours:

Conclusion - vortex continues to take a battering for the foreseeable future

That said, a very slight increase in zonal winds forecast towards day 10:

Still not hugely significant from the bottom of the stratosphere, into the troposphere though (i.e. below 20m/s)

SK

[bluearmy]

anyone notice the best ozone chart of the winter so far T120 on ncep today ?

[johnholmes]

my VERY simple look at the Stratosphere

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/html_e/pole30_n.html

20-25 days on IF it shows another couple of days rising?

[chionomaniac]

anyone notice the best ozone chart of the winter so far T120 on ncep today ?

I thought it looked better the other day!!

And T+0 looks better!!!

[Partholon]

well according to this guy.....

Edited December 3, 2012 by Paul
Sorry but with no source and no information it seems wrong to have this as part of the discussion - particularly as in terms of copyright just taking someones post/email/status update and putting in a forum without credit etc isn't the way forward

[Rob K]

Certainly the NAO forecast charts show quite an uptick mid month, albeit not straying into positive territory. Sorry no link as on mobile.

[chionomaniac]

Just for info the latest GFS run has the vortex back to Siberia at the end!