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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013


chionomaniac

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

A better warming is forecast at around the 15 day period and this has been growing on consecutive runs. It is FI but worth keeping a watch on still.

We are also currently seeing a minor warming that has dragged us back up to average - every little helps!

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Posted
  • Location: Barnoldswick, Lancs, 500ft
  • Location: Barnoldswick, Lancs, 500ft

The latest update of the ECM 32 day is fascinating today. It keeps the current signal for a meridional pattern across the north Atlantic until mid month at least with a lower pressure anom to the east or north-east which essentially leads to a risk of northerly outbreaks.

Later in the month pressure becomes lower over France and higher to the north and northeast with the general mean flow becoming northeasterly, with a similar synoptic pattern to that of late Nov 09!

It's safe to say this update keeps temps average at very best throughout November if not below average with little or no evidence to support a noteworthy polar vortex or a +NAO pattern for example.

Cheers. Matt.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

The latest update of the ECM 32 day is fascinating today. It keeps the current signal for a meridional pattern across the north Atlantic until mid month at least with a lower pressure anom to the east or north-east which essentially leads to a risk of northerly outbreaks.

Later in the month pressure becomes lower over France and higher to the north and northeast with the general mean flow becoming northeasterly, with a similar synoptic pattern to that of late Nov 09!

It's safe to say this update keeps temps average at very best throughout November if not below average with little or no evidence to support a noteworthy polar vortex or a +NAO pattern for example.

Cheers. Matt.

Matt

Do you mean Nov '10? Although I would much prefer a winter of 09/10 than 10/11

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Barnoldswick, Lancs, 500ft
  • Location: Barnoldswick, Lancs, 500ft

Matt

Do you mean Nov '10? Although I would much prefer a winter of 09/10 than 10/11

BFTP

Apologies, yeah I mean Nov 10 in relation the latter half of the month in terms of similar synoptics. The ECM 32 has quite a low consistency of late which is always a concern but it'll be very interesting to follow further updates and again the distinct lack of a polar vortex is clearly evident.

Matt.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds (Roundhay) 135m
  • Location: Leeds (Roundhay) 135m

A better warming is forecast at around the 15 day period and this has been growing on consecutive runs. It is FI but worth keeping a watch on still.

We are also currently seeing a minor warming that has dragged us back up to average - every little helps!

I'm guessing its these you're talking about?

Posted ImagePosted Image

Two questions, the charts show two notable areas of warming, Canada and Eastern Russia, would i be right in thinking that this might be a Canadian warming you thought was possible in the middle of November (but then i notice the most significant warming shown is over eastern Russia) or am wrong?. Also there are two sets of charts (the others not posted) which are named ascending and descending, is there significance in this, or is it they are just run at different times? Thanks :)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Mark the ascending and descending readings come as the satellite drops trough and then rises to the top of the strat. The readings are 6 hours apart I think.

The charts you posted are current readings and do not show a Canadian warming. Ed is plumping for one of these later on in November. all the warmings shown on the forecast charts are fairly gentle and not showing at the pole. However, they are occurring into the Canadian sector in week 2 and are slowly pushing the strat vortex towards Siberia and if continuing, could well manage to raise the polar strat readings to reasonable above av numbers. we are still not seeing zonal mean winds getting much above 20m/s at 30hpa, despite recent strat temps below average. I would have expected the push in zonal winds to have propagated further down and for speeds at 30hpa to be forecast to reach above 25m/s. there does seem to be some resistance in the mid/upper strat to build a strong vortex. I wonder if this has anything to do with the wave 1 temperature rise forecast now pushing down into the 20 to 30 hpa area in the latter stages?

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds (Roundhay) 135m
  • Location: Leeds (Roundhay) 135m

Mark the ascending and descending readings come as the satellite drops trough and then rises to the top of the strat. The readings are 6 hours apart I think.

The charts you posted are current readings and do not show a Canadian warming. Ed is plumping for one of these later on in November. all the warmings shown on the forecast charts are fairly gentle and not showing at the pole. However, they are occurring into the Canadian sector in week 2 and are slowly pushing the strat vortex towards Siberia and if continuing, could well manage to raise the polar strat readings to reasonable above av numbers. we are still not seeing zonal mean winds getting much above 20m/s at 30hpa, despite recent strat temps below average. I would have expected the push in zonal winds to have propagated further down and for speeds at 30hpa to be forecast to reach above 25m/s. there does seem to be some resistance in the mid/upper strat to build a strong vortex. I wonder if this has anything to do with the wave 1 temperature rise forecast now pushing down into the 20 to 30 hpa area in the latter stages?

Thanks for your reply, i mostly understand, i think!Posted Image I must have got confused by associating the number NOAA-15 - 16 with days when in fact, after having a proper look its the current analysis, or readings as you state Posted Image . I noticed the forecasts go to T240 but isn't this only 10 days, are there forecasts available that go further?

Hopefully these become available as we start November, easiest to understand for those like me who are still very much in the early learning stages!

http://wekuw.met.fu-...alert=1&lng=eng

http://wekuw.met.fu-...alert=1&lng=eng

Edited by Mark Bayley
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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

The latest update of the ECM 32 day is fascinating today. It keeps the current signal for a meridional pattern across the north Atlantic until mid month at least with a lower pressure anom to the east or north-east which essentially leads to a risk of northerly outbreaks.

Later in the month pressure becomes lower over France and higher to the north and northeast with the general mean flow becoming northeasterly, with a similar synoptic pattern to that of late Nov 09!

It's safe to say this update keeps temps average at very best throughout November if not below average with little or no evidence to support a noteworthy polar vortex or a +NAO pattern for example.

Cheers. Matt.

Thanks for the update Matt.

I suspect we have a month to play with whilst we see if the stratosphere continues to cool.

Interestingly, we see that the extended ECM ensemble MJO forecasts are headed towards phase 6

post-4523-0-68227600-1351625875_thumb.gi

And the corresponding H500 anomaly pattern :

post-4523-0-31600800-1351625939_thumb.gi

I guess we can see why the ECM 32 dayer is such - the question remains though - is it right?!!

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Posted
  • Location: Barnoldswick, Lancs, 500ft
  • Location: Barnoldswick, Lancs, 500ft

Thanks for the update Matt.

I suspect we have a month to play with whilst we see if the stratosphere continues to cool.

Interestingly, we see that the extended ECM ensemble MJO forecasts are headed towards phase 6

post-4523-0-68227600-1351625875_thumb.gi

And the corresponding H500 anomaly pattern :

post-4523-0-31600800-1351625939_thumb.gi

I guess we can see why the ECM 32 dayer is such - the question remains though - is it right?!!

I obviously can't post the ECM images but without question I can say the 4th week matches that image you have uploaded near perfect regarding the synoptic pattern.

As you say it's got to happen yet and subsequent updates will be interesting. Still seems as though 'we' are in limbo land so to speak regarding early winter. Still some very interesting and noteworthy variables evident but in my opinion we are none the wiser on early winter just yet but here's hoping your CW prediction becomes reality!...

Cheers.

PS: The ECM seasonal model will be updated on the 8th November. Up to present this model has not signalled a cold, more blocked winter but a milder more zonal winter, so this final update will be interesting in 9 days or so.

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Thanks once again Seb.

This is quoted in the paper

45 Fig. 6 shows that about 10 days after the MJO passes its phase with reduced (enhanced)

46 convection over the western Paciï¬c (Indian) Ocean [phase 1 as deï¬ned by Wheeler and

47 Hendon, 2004], warm anomalies are established in the polar lower stratosphere.

and the current MJO forecast:

post-4523-0-36714300-1350209943_thumb.gi

Let's watch and learn!

I forgot to revisit this to say that the current lower warming (which halted the cooling temporarily) was indeed seen in the right time frame following the MJO phase entering 1

post-4523-0-74396300-1351627469_thumb.gi

So some sort of confirmation here.

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

I obviously can't post the ECM images but without question I can say the 4th week matches that image you have uploaded near perfect regarding the synoptic pattern.

As you say it's got to happen yet and subsequent updates will be interesting. Still seems as though 'we' are in limbo land so to speak regarding early winter. Still some very interesting and noteworthy variables evident but in my opinion we are none the wiser on early winter just yet but here's hoping your CW prediction becomes reality!...

Cheers.

PS: The ECM seasonal model will be updated on the 8th November. Up to present this model has not signalled a cold, more blocked winter but a milder more zonal winter, so this final update will be interesting in 9 days or so.

The 2 week MJO forecasts from the UKMO are headed that way as well Matt, though the GFS forecasts are not yet.

And Matt do you know why the ECM final seasonal update a good three weeks before winter? If the strat changes significantly in those three weeks then it would make it invalid. On data presently I can (reluctantly) understand why the milder more zonal winter is signalled so far.

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

Wave 1 activity seems to have increased a little recently:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_WAVE1_MEAN_OND_NH_2012.gif

I suppose this is expected at the time of year and am not sure how significant this activity is but it's happened.

It looks like a North American MT may be on its way, which, forgive me if I'm wrong, may increase Wave 1 activity, and maybe minor warming can occur in the stratosphere?

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/reanalysis/aam_total/gltaum.90day.gif

I know this is probably insignificant but it's better than nothing.

I forgot to revisit this to say that the current lower warming (which halted the cooling temporarily) was indeed seen in the right time frame following the MJO phase entering 1

post-4523-0-74396300-1351627469_thumb.gi

So some sort of confirmation here.

Interesting, hopefully we can skip out Phase 5!

Edited by 22nov10blast
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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

On data presently I can (reluctantly) understand why the milder more zonal winter is signalled so far.

I guess as others have said, lets hope the Canadian warming occurs next month then! However, there hasn't been a significant cooling so far like last year? Do you currrently understand there is a mild signal because we have yet to see a significant warming forecast for the strat?

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

Isn't strat warming only part of any weather puzzle?

Surely it is a precursor of deep cold - without a SSW we can still get cold? Yes?

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Isn't strat warming only part of any weather puzzle?

Surely it is a precursor of deep cold - without a SSW we can still get cold? Yes?

You need to reverse it BB.

If we have an extremely cold strat, then we are unlikely to see HLB's due to a strong vortex. Forget SSW's for the time being - we know that they can lead to cold but it can be hit and miss whether we can be in the firing line.

So the question next to ask is can we get prolonged cold without HLB's? (not that we have had a significant period of an extremely cold strat that will lead to vortex intensification - VI)

The average temperature strat is a bit of an enigma - it never really exists!

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Interesting thus far, I am still looking at a 'descending' winter Dec av to mild, Jan av to cool, Feb cold to v cold

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

I've always found the winter of 85-86 to be an interesting one. The strat ran cold from November to Jan (very similar levels to 11-12), January was a little above average with one short sharp warming spike but no great warming (I stand to be corrected though). A dictating vortex seemingly was never allowed to form in the way it did 2011-12 and was often kicked about left right and centre. A fairly cold November with some cold shots through December and January but the end of that month we had a lovely diving NW-SE low pressure, a linkup Azores and Scandi block and from then on for the month HLB just waltzed in and took over even with the troposperic vortex sat on the NW coast of Greenland initially.

Not sure what I'm getting at really other than why did this occur then and not happen last winter (for example)? Every winter I find it fascinating trying to work out the drivers, the role they are playing on their own and in conjunction with others. For me, 'what is driving what' is the holy grail of weather forecasting.

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester, Glen Parva
  • Location: Leicester, Glen Parva
Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Link to post in snow and ice thread as relevent here

http://forum.netweat...20#entry2394143

Edited by chionomaniac
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Posted
  • Location: Barnoldswick, Lancs, 500ft
  • Location: Barnoldswick, Lancs, 500ft

The 2 week MJO forecasts from the UKMO are headed that way as well Matt, though the GFS forecasts are not yet.

And Matt do you know why the ECM final seasonal update a good three weeks before winter? If the strat changes significantly in those three weeks then it would make it invalid. On data presently I can (reluctantly) understand why the milder more zonal winter is signalled so far.

Apologies, I think this is just a misinterpretation of my comments. What I mean is that the ECM seasonal model is obviously updated once a month and each update is then for the forth coming 4 months. So what I really mean is that the November ECM seasonal update will be the last one that covers Dec, Jan and Feb together. The Dec updated, in early Dec, will then cover Jan to April. So in essence the November update is the last one that captures the winter months before then progressing further.

M.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Is there any relation between AO and AAO (Antarctic Oscillation)?

Current AO

http://www.cpc.ncep....ex/ao.sprd2.gif

Current AAO

http://www.cpc.ncep....o/aao.sprd2.gif

previous years

http://climatechange...jpg?w=500&h=353

Well

Their goes my hope for November!

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

Link to post in snow and ice thread as relevent here

http://forum.netweat...20#entry2394143

Going to admit laziness here as not had time to do the trawling, has anyone looked through potential analog years for SAI ?

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