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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013


chionomaniac

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland

Comparison between 22nd of october 2009 & 2012. There seems to be somewhat more snow in 2012. In the next days there will fall lot's of snow in the western part of Siberia.

Expect some Scandinavian and NW Russian snow as well by the looks of it, pulled down by that trough.
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Im going to eat some humble pie and apology to CH because after spending ages reading through some archive stratosphere threads, im just amazed at how accurate CH has been. I read through the 2009, 2010,2011 threads and the biggest mistake I made was I didn't read all the posts until tonight.

Here is a snippet of what CH said on November14th 2010.

"Looking at the phase of the GWO I believe that we are now going to experience a strong negative asian mountain torque event which again is going to cause another wave number 2 to break into the stratosphere. This is likely to cause another warming of the stratosphere in around 15 days time before it has had a chance to cool down from the present warming. This is likely to cause further disturbances with the tropospheric vortex right up until the middle of December, with phases of Northern blocking right up until this time and possibly Christmas."

http://forum.netweat...sphere__st__100

Well after reading the above and knowing what occured at the end of Nov/Dec I can only admire this post from CH.

So my sincere apologies to CH because I was definitely wrong in my posts on the winter thread. I strongly urge members to read these archive Strat threads because when you read all the posts like I have done it not only improves your knowledge but makes following this current thread even more important.

Good ost Dave, also it was Dec 2008 where I believe we had coldish conditions despite cold cold stratos, but it was considerably less blocked and for deep sustained cold we need the stratos to be on board.

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Barnoldswick, Lancs, 500ft
  • Location: Barnoldswick, Lancs, 500ft

Just a quick one, but latest update of the ECM 32 day model out to the middle of Nov or just after paints a particularly cyclonic and cool, if not cold outlook with low pressure and a -ve pressure anom dominant across the UK and NW Europe in general. Temps look to be around 1C to 3C below average throughout the forecast period, though perhaps temporarily at or slightly above given SW'ly as lows approach. High pressure and a +ve pressure anom exists across Greenland and more particularly NE Canada (Labrador etc), but overall latest update looks distinct unsettled and cyclonic for the UK, but not with a 'mild' signal associated with it.

Cheers, Matt.

Edited by MattHugo
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Posted
  • Location: Near Bromley, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, lots of it.
  • Location: Near Bromley, Kent

The debate about where we currently sit should firmly revolve around the QBO / solar flux.

We are away from the solar minima and in a second cold season east QBO. That will lead to a cooling stratospheric profile. But here's the deal, with this type of QBO, especially going into a second cold season and solar activity relatively low, this is tantamount to a ticking time bomb. There is a high probability this winter of one or more warming events. Our nearest comparison year, 1968, had its first warming in late November.

For reference, I've collected 21 October ozone data from 2012, 2011 and 2009 to give us a fix on where we stand currently:

post-2478-0-25712000-1350933010_thumb.jp post-2478-0-25200800-1350932972_thumb.jppost-2478-0-98317600-1350933027_thumb.jp

Not bad, not as expansive as 2009 but certainly better than 2011. The relaxation of the warming in the southern hemisphere should assist the BDC make its contribution more felt in the NH in the coming weeks.

Also, note the rapid increase in Eurasian snowcover that has happend and will continue to consolidate with the projected pattern for the next 10 days. That gives every chance that zonal wind flow will be disriupted and eddy fluxes will begin to develop over Siberia and into the North Pacific. Already I'm seeing first indication of falling heights across the North Pacific which begins to initiate the longwave response across the NH - look out for increasing wave 1 activity in the coming weeks which will persist strong +ve heights to the north and NE. We should expect to see low pressure in the Atlantic but more with the jet orientated NW-SE or even more meridional. Ideally we want this North Pacific low and a ridge over eastern Europe to set in train a warming event.

Incidentally, GFS and ECM long range 30hPa temperature forecasts maintain -70C or -75C values for early November over the Pole, which is average or slightly above average for that time of year.

Hi GP, as a complete newbie and still learning to crawl, I do enjoy reading your very informative posts as I do with Chio's posts and post from other knowledgable members. From a cold perspective, I am pleased to read that there are still some positive signals and projections that would induce a more blocked pattern as we head into winter. I will be keeping a close eye on this thread for further updates.

Regards

VL

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Just a quick one, but latest update of the ECM 32 day model out to the middle of Nov or just after paints a particularly cyclonic and cool, if not cold outlook with low pressure and a -ve pressure anom dominant across the UK and NW Europe in general. Temps look to be around 1C to 3C below average throughout the forecast period, though perhaps temporarily at or slightly above given SW'ly as lows approach. High pressure and a +ve pressure anom exists across Greenland and more particularly NE Canada (Labrador etc), but overall latest update looks distinct unsettled and cyclonic for the UK, but not with a 'mild' signal associated with it.

Cheers, Matt.

Interesting post Matt, a discussion came up somewhere that we'll return to more mobile pattern, but clearly it doesn't mean mild mush. I think that sounds feasible to me.

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

Great update from GP there, may be useful to link his post from September about the year in question 1968...what might lie ahead.. Indeed !

Edited by lorenzo
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

thats two consec GFS runs which have raised 10hpa temps in eastern siberia towards the end of the run. this is the area where temps were forecast to rise in jan last year prior to the warmings that disrputed the strong strat vortex. whenever i see 10hpa temps rise on the gfs op run, its always in eastern siberia. any reason ed ?

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

thats two consec GFS runs which have raised 10hpa temps in eastern siberia towards the end of the run. this is the area where temps were forecast to rise in jan last year prior to the warmings that disrputed the strong strat vortex. whenever i see 10hpa temps rise on the gfs op run, its always in eastern siberia. any reason ed ?

I am only guessing here Nick but it may be an upwelling from a recent Mountain torque event ?

post-2026-0-41158100-1351014892_thumb.gi

ECM modelling number 1 wavebreaking showing some warmer temperatures down to middle levels around that latitude.

post-2026-0-71894300-1351015416_thumb.gi

I think this is the type of wave that can cause vortex displacement if strong enough- rather than complete fragmentation.

I am sure Chio.will correct me when he has time and he can give me marks out of 10.Posted Image

Edited by phil n.warks.
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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

thats two consec GFS runs which have raised 10hpa temps in eastern siberia towards the end of the run. this is the area where temps were forecast to rise in jan last year prior to the warmings that disrputed the strong strat vortex. whenever i see 10hpa temps rise on the gfs op run, its always in eastern siberia. any reason ed ?

It's due to deflection of waves from the land mass I suspect, namely the wavenumber 1 as Phil points out.

My understanding of the negative mountain torque events is that momentum gets added to the atmosphere northwards from 35ºN.

post-4523-0-39148500-1351016233_thumb.jp

This fits in with where the GWO is currently situated.

http://www.esrl.noaa...gcm/gwo_40d.gif

The forecasted 10 hPa temperature rises out in FI is something we saw continually towards the end of last December - and eventually that was reeled in to the reliable timeframe.

Even though the stratosphere is currently below average temp wise I do think that this will change during November due to a possible Canadian Warming. There hasn't been one since Nov 2000 so it is a bit of a gamble. If you remember the post that I did in the winter thread many moons ago, I looked at similar previous analog years and both SM's (62/63) and GP's (68/69) came out on top. Both these winters had CW's so with the BDC hopefully as active then I am hoping for something similar. I just don't know whether we have been stuffed by the SH event and therefore would look now more towards the end of November for any possible CW and then take winter from there.

Edited by chionomaniac
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Ed

Last time we had a SH event we had a very 'nearly' winter in 2003. There was plenty of blocking around...just not in the right place. Any more on what the SH event does....if its similar to back then with the current trait of the jetstream I'm quite interested in that.

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

I am only guessing here Nick but it may be an upwelling from a recent Mountain torque event ?

post-2026-0-41158100-1351014892_thumb.gi

ECM modelling number 1 wavebreaking showing some warmer temperatures down to middle levels around that latitude.

post-2026-0-71894300-1351015416_thumb.gi

I think this is the type of wave that can cause vortex displacement if strong enough- rather than complete fragmentation.

I am sure Chio.will correct me when he has time and he can give me marks out of 10.Posted Image

The wave forecast looks pretty week Phil which is why the predicted warming is only at the upper levels. However if it encourages ozone transport from tropical latitudes further north then it is a start, but we will want to see a lot greater and continual activity from here on in - much like was experienced in the SH earlier this year.

post-4523-0-01226500-1351017188_thumb.gi

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Ed

Last time we had a SH event we had a very 'nearly' winter in 2003. There was plenty of blocking around...just not in the right place. Any more on what the SH event does....if its similar to back then with the current trait of the jetstream I'm quite interested in that.

BFTP

The SH event has shown that repeated wave activity has assisted the ozone transpost from the tropical stratosphere to the SH polar stratosphere.

Here is the 2003 SH wavenumber 1 pattern for that year:

post-4523-0-01330100-1351017548_thumb.gi

And the early winter wavenumber 1 pattern NH 2003.

post-4523-0-96814100-1351017333_thumb.gi

- hopefully we see something similar this year.

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

I do think that solar output is 100% putting the breaks on ssw at this stage.

Since 2010 winter,

solar output its increase has had a marked effect on strat and vortex strength and I do understand this is not all the teleconnections but one of the main drivers.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

I do think that solar output is 100% putting the breaks on ssw at this stage.

Since 2010 winter,

solar output its increase has had a marked effect on strat and vortex strength and I do understand this is not all the teleconnections but one of the main drivers.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/solar.data

Solar flux data would disagree, for this stage of the solar cycle we are pretty low (not to mention solar flux may have peaked last November).

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

But its very active compared to 08/09

Badboy

We are almost at solar cycle MAX, you are totally missing the point of a low solar cycle or an impending grand minima. It will be higher no matter what...but compare this part of the cycle to cycle 19, 20 22, 23 and we are much much lower. A low count at MAX is jut as important as a nigh on nil count at minima, in the grand scheme of things.

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

But its very active compared to 08/09

Yes but lower than 79/56.

Its so low by historical standards that you'd still have to group us as being close to solar minima.

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Posted
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level

http://www.esrl.noaa...tion/solar.data

Solar flux data would disagree, for this stage of the solar cycle we are pretty low (not to mention solar flux may have peaked last November).

Looking at the values on that chart, there is a definite correlation between years with lower values (years when the values are less than 1000 each month) and cooler winters.

1962/63

1977/78

1986/87

2009/2010

are the 4 that stand out.

They are also in clusters of 4's and 5's.

4 years of under 1000 per month values, followed by 5 years of + 10000 per month

and 2 years in between.

so on that basis we have just entered the first full year of +1000 values, with another 4 full years yet to come.

suggesting the highest values are yet to be seen and will probably occur in 2014/2015.

No idea what significance any of this has...just making an observation.

Edited by EML Network
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Looking at the values on that chart, there is a definite correlation between years with lower values (years when the values are less than 1000 each month) and cooler winters.

1962/63

1977/78

1986/87

2009/2010

are the 4 that stand out.

They are also in clusters of 4's and 5's.

4 years of under 1000 per month values, followed by 5 years of + 10000 per month

and 2 years in between.

so on that basis we have just entered the first full year of +1000 values, with another 4 full years yet to come.

suggesting the highest values are yet to be seen and will probably occur in 2014/2015.

No idea what significance any of this has...just making an observation.

Each solar cycle had either 2 or 3 years at less than 1000 on that list, our minima had 5 full years! Nasa has also repeatedly revised the maximum date from 2015 now down to early 2013 however as i have shown solar flux levels actually peaked so far back in Nov 11 so theres no guarantee we will not slip back.

If we take Jan and Feb below 2C winter months since 1950 and Dec below 3C we can look for a correlation..

Dec

1995

1996

1981

1976

1963

1962

1961

1950

25% were above the 1000 level.

Jan

1963

1979

1985

1987

2010

20% were above 1000.

Feb

1956

1959

1963

1968

1969

1979

1983

1991

A massive 87.5% were above 1000.

We learnt two things from this quick study..

1) It does'nt matter how much above 1000 you are because 50% were above 2000 and 50% were in the 1000-2000 range.

2) Low solar increases the chances of extreme cold in December and January but February shows an increased chance during higher solar years,

Edited by summer blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Near Bromley, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, lots of it.
  • Location: Near Bromley, Kent

Hello everyone. As a newbie, I'm not 100% sure I should be posting here but I have a question about strat warming events which I hope somebody would be kind enough to answer.

From reading through the posts and trying to understand the technical speak, I'm I correct in thinking a SSW event is different to Canadian warming event? If so, do they have different impacts on the PV and how it might affect the UK?

Thanks VL

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Hello everyone. As a newbie, I'm not 100% sure I should be posting here but I have a question about strat warming events which I hope somebody would be kind enough to answer.

From reading through the posts and trying to understand the technical speak, I'm I correct in thinking a SSW event is different to Canadian warming event? If so, do they have different impacts on the PV and how it might affect the UK?

Thanks VL

Hi VL,

Yes you are right - a SSW is different to a Canadian Warming. Whereas a lot has been written about SSW's, there is less information in the literature about Canadian warmings.

To recap a SSW is characterised by a reversal of mean zonal mean winds in the stratosphere at a level of 10 hpa at 60ºN. This requires a rather pronounced warming.

A Canadian warming is a less pronounced warming seen over the Canadian sector in November or December. There is no reversal of the mean zonal winds. The stratospheric polar vortex is displaced towards Siberia and weakened somewhat. I suspect that this is a result of increased wavenumber 1 activity.

Still no significant warming in the mid stratosphere forecast.

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

Quick question to anyone who knows, what's the difference between a positive and negative mountain torque event? I understand what MT's are and how they can effect Rossby waves (deflection towards the polar strat and possible wavebreaking, or just dispersion at lower latitudes), but what is the significance of positive and nagative values?

Thanks.

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