Seeing as nobody has started this topic...
The melt season is here, generally lasting from March/April to September each year. After previous slight improvements in the minima in both 2013 and 2014 after the record low of 2012, many AGW "sceptics" see this as a sign of an Arctic sea ice recovery, while others see it as short term variation on a long term trend.
Most extent and area measures have this years max as the lowest on record, while volume sits about 6th lowest and highest since 2010.
So, how will this season pan out? A continued reversion to the mean or return to the long term downward trend?
As we approach a new month, thought it would be time to unleash a new Model thread ready for November. And also ready for the 12Z model updates (although thoughts regarding previous model runs are still welcome). Please continue your discussions, summaries and debates of the weather models here.
It does looks as though we could see some warm(ish) weather in the next few days, most especially towards the South-East, with a mild South-Westerly flow over the country. However, it appears today will be the warmest day for places, with temperatures up in the 20's in the South-East - even for 6pm:
(the non-parallel GFS charts used as an example)
Could make for a warm Halloween night. Perhaps great for camping out and telling all sorts of scary stories about when models took away your favoured outcome that was so close to coming off (e.g: a snowy Easterly)...
The warm air will start easing during the weekend as the warm 850 hPa temperatures get pushed out to the East with cooler and cooler air getting pulled in from the West...
Though temperatures around 11 to 15*C could still be possible towards the South-East, especially during sunnier, brighter spells.
As what seems to be the case with these set-ups, the North-West will see the coolest and most disturbed conditions. Could be very windy at times, too. Additionally, the Met Office FAX charts show a number of frontal systems (mostly cold fronts) sweeping through the country during the next few days bringing spells of rain for places. Some brighter periods are likely between the cold fronts as they introduce fresher air behind them.
Beyond then, there is likelihood of some kind of cool flow developing early next week from the North, as Low Pressure tries to transfer to our East (examples from the GFS, GEM, NAVGEM, UKMO and ECMWF):
Some differences evident between the models with some, such as the GFS and GEM, wanting to flatten the ridge of High Pressure to our West - the cold flow getting cut off very quickly... while some models, such as the ECMWF and UKMO, transfer the ridge of High Pressure from our West towards Scandinavia with pressure building to our North-East. Example from the 00Z ECMWF at 144 hours:
That model then goes on to building a ridge from the Azores High Pressure system towards the UK deflating Atlantic Lows away to the North and North-West of the UK.
From what has been illustrated in the previous thread, the GFS 06Z goes for some quite mouth-drooling charts for the cold and snow fans with a build of pressure to the North-West in Fantasy Island...
Can it be continued on the 12Z run or has the GFS just gone all crazy? If the Vortex struggles to become organised over the Greenland area, then it could certainly be possible. Nevertheless, the NOAA 8 to 14 Day 500mb Anomaly Chart (issued 30th October) doesn't seem to be buying into it at the moment:
It will be interesting to see where future model runs take us, and also whether enough amplification can occur at times to hold up the fairly Westerly driven pattern and get colder air drawn towards the UK (just like the cool down for early next week). And perhaps, if so, the UK may (or may not) see its first signs of this, this month...
Just a reminder, for posts that are about general hopes, moans and ramps about the weather models, please use this thread: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81281-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-autumnwinter-2014/ (although we understand that their may be some cross-over at times as some of us get excited about the prospect of cold and snow. However, please still respect the views of others and keep posts to the relevant threads).
For in-depth model analysis, then feel welcome to use this thread: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76236-in-depth-model-discussion-and-summaries/
I will, though, just quote the last post from the previous thread into here and to help keep the discussion flowing. The one from Mucka below serves as an reminder about the new parallel GFS model we have - used alongside the current GFS model. It is hoped it will improve the performance of the GFS. The parrellel GFS model will eventually replace the current GFS model if it performs as expected. See here for more info about the GFS upgrade: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81409-gfs-upgrade-coming-november-2014/
This is the first real test of the new GFS (currently running Parallel) against ECM and to a lesser extent UKMO with the parallel now going for the Atlantic driven option with low pressure pushing across the UK and into Scandinavia while ECM has jet forced North and builds heights over the same region.
This may help us later in the winter where a similar synoptic and differences between the models occur.
The parallel goes for a repeating pattern in FI with a deep trough and Atlantic ridge but it should be noted it had a more significant ridge and amplified pattern modelled for the period coming up so it may well flatten the FI pattern in a similar manner. Here is how it was modelling 3 Nov to how it is modelling it now.
So for those who are interested as to how the new GFS might perform when it officially comes online end of Nov, now (with possible mid latitude blocking V temp ridge and lack of model convergence) is a good time to analyse it as it runs in parallel to the current GFS model.
Cheers all, and keep up the good work!
Hello Guys and Good afternoon to you all
There Will be a change next week.Making things nicely cold and Some snow (MAYBE)
Lets begin the Discussion Right here and right now.
Enjoy Ladies and Gentlemen....
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