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Child Of Nadine (karin) - Severe Weather Discussion - Day 2 To 6


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Hi, can we keep this thread to discussing the weather situation / forecasts / flooding etc please - if you want to chat and banter off topic please take a look at the lounge http://forum.netweat.../1

A bit frightening - http://www.itv.com/news/tyne-tees/2012-09-25/block-of-flats-at-risk-of-collapse-after-floods-in-newburn/

Very interesting comments and analysis from ESTOFEX this morning: http://www.estofex.org/

Posted Images

Blowing a gale? I am in the west end mate and it is just a breeze here? Just shows what the locale does really for conditions..

Its pretty windy here on the coast Paul, nothing out of the ordinary yet but the worst of the wind/rain is set to arrive evening and through the night up here the north east. Currently the wind is North-Easterly at 25mph, gusting to around 35-40mph. Not much rain as yet with 8mm since midnight.
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23mm here thus far, That's about a additional 2.5mm every passing hour averaging out the numbers, the LP is expected to swing into the Irish Sea by tomorrow afternoon so it won't be going much far north than it already is.

Don't know how much we've had here as my rain guage has broken but I'd say over the last 24 hours we've had about 30mm + The rain was torrential earlier. Areas N&W of Stafford (ish) look like they could be affected by more rain over the next 24 hours as the low begins to head back south. Some places must be able to acheive 100mm out of this.

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Don't know how much we've had here as my rain guage has broken but I'd say over the last 24 hours we've had about 30mm + The rain was torrential earlier. Areas N&W of Stafford (ish) look like they could be affected by more rain over the next 24 hours as the low begins to head back south. Some places must be able to acheive 100mm out of this.

local weather stations (within a 20 mile radius of me) are widely showing rainfall accumulations of between 30 & 60mm since midnight...very wet indeed
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local weather stations (within a 20 mile radius of me) are widely showing rainfall accumulations of between 30 & 60mm since midnight...very wet indeed

I can believe it.....I thought 30mm was a tad conservative seeing as my road is under a few inches of water!

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I can believe it.....I thought 30mm was a tad conservative seeing as my road is under a few inches of water!

being 30 or so miles north of me, I reckon you're in a prime spot to get plenty more rain in the next 24 hours or so...Touch and go here though, the main band might just stay to my north and NW if I'm lucky...as I work outdoors, I need this rain to bugger off, or no income!
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Had a raging hoolie once, Doc gave me some cream.

I hope something happens here, Currently a little breezy and dry.

I was about to enquire what a raging hoolie is exactly, but on second thoughts............

Sun starting to peak through here in Solihull.

Bish

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A much brighter afternoon and quite gusty at times but nothing unusual - it was windier between 12th-14th when a few trees came down. Can anyone explain the lack of shower activity across the southern half of the UK considering the airmass and synoptics we are under?

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A much brighter afternoon and quite gusty at times but nothing unusual - it was windier between 12th-14th when a few trees came down. Can anyone explain the lack of shower activity across the southern half of the UK considering the airmass and synoptics we are under?

I can't really explain why but from memory of previous such deep LOWs there is always a large mostly dry area to the South of the LOW centre with the strong to gale force Westerly flow. If you look at the radar there are many showers, some thundery, in the English Channel and clipping the far SW and these will run along the South Coast/adjoining counties through the rest of today, overnight and into tomorrow.

I would expect there to be some developments up the Bristol Channel at some stage which may affect you Mike.

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Wind now beginning to ramp up here and off to the North East things are becoming very dark indeed. Expect heavy rain to start shortly with the winds picking up further.

Edited by Maitland
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12z NAE predicted rainfall totals by the time we get to Tuesday evening, 50-80mm over parts of Northern England.

post-9615-0-99894100-1348499462_thumb.gi

Considering many parts have already exceeded that amount, and we've had near 30mm here, I'd expect a lot more to be honest, especially if the rain continues into tomorrow afternoon like forecast.
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Considering many parts have already exceeded that amount, and we've had near 30mm here, I'd expect a lot more to be honest, especially if the rain continues into tomorrow afternoon like forecast.

The rainfall and indeed the exact track/intensity of this depression is still proving difficult to really pin down - It was showing 150mm this morning!! The focus of the real heavier stuff has moved further north on the 12z. Let's see what the 12z NMM makes of things...

Edited by Liam J
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The Met Office have now removed the wind warnings

Severe weather warnings for heavy rain remain in force

Yellow rain warnings have now been issued for Wednesday covering South West England and London & South East England

Edited by Summer Sun
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It's been chucking it down heavily all afternoon though not so heavy just now.

Temp 11.0C.

Wind dropped just at present.

The radar images are interesting. Rain moving like a clock finger.anti-clockwise, with us in the middle.

A plague of mice coming indoors. They say they can't stand it out there any more.

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