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Child Of Nadine (karin) - Severe Weather Discussion - Day 2 To 6


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Hi, can we keep this thread to discussing the weather situation / forecasts / flooding etc please - if you want to chat and banter off topic please take a look at the lounge http://forum.netweat.../1

A bit frightening - http://www.itv.com/news/tyne-tees/2012-09-25/block-of-flats-at-risk-of-collapse-after-floods-in-newburn/

Very interesting comments and analysis from ESTOFEX this morning: http://www.estofex.org/

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Very interesting comments and analysis from ESTOFEX this morning:

Multiple structural changes occurred and will occur with the consolidating depression, which moves off the Bay of Biscay to the north/northeast. After initiated by a southbound moving upper low with a distinct tropopause fold during the overnight hours of the 21st to the 22nd, roughly 36h of a slightly less barocline atmosphere allowed for some low-end core modification, although negligible (and still classified as a true cold core low). As of writing (23rd), a plume of slightly modified tropical air (modified due to onshore trajectories into the depression's center), encircled most of the center and assisted in disorganized but slightly deeper convection with no distinct banding present. However this pushed the depression near the shallow warm core structure on available phase diagrams. During the afternoon hours of the 23rd however, an approaching frontal boundary from the NW marked the beginning of another round of enhanced baroclinity with models showing the evolution of a distinct tropopause fold over Ireland and UK during the forecast period, bending into the system. This increase of baroclinity results in a rapid deepening phase, which starts around the beginning of my forecast period and offers a central pressure drop of at least 10 K in probably less than 24 h while crossing UK from the SW with a strong turn to the NW during the night.

This results in a quite complex frontal and thermal structure of that low, as the majority of the models now propose some type of thermodynamic core modification. Current thinking is that a moderate warm-core seclusion takes place during the forecast although described history of that depression may offer a better defined LL warm core structure compared to truley extratropical cases. Latest ASCAT scans reveal a quite symmetric near surface wind field with uncontaminated 30-40 kt winds along the W/S and SE-ern fringes (much less defined along the NE quadrant) and this well defined wind field in the lower troposphere remains intact during much of the forecast period.

To complicate that scenario once more, ongoing baroclinic transformation will result in more typical vertical wind field distribution of the extra tropics along the southern fringe, as a strong mid/high-level jet moves in from the west and crosses N-France and Benelux during the night. Along the northern fringe of the depression however (e.g. N-UK and Scotland), no modification is expected until 06Z due to the dominant and still westward pointing wrap-around occlusion, which keeps the shallow warm core intact.

http://www.estofex.org/

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Wondering if we will see any of it here in Cheshire today. Light rain at the moment but has been fairly constant since about 8pm last night,

Was owt but light when I got up an hour or so ago. Seems to have eased a bit now though.

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53mm from 08.00 yesterday to same time today. Fortunately, I emptied the gauge last night, had I not have done, it would have overflowed! Pretty much stopped now, but still breezy.

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Very interesting comments and analysis from ESTOFEX this morning:

http://www.estofex.org/

must admit, I don't know a great deal about TS/Hurricane dynamics, but are Estofex claiming that this system has a warm core, thus it's gaining tropical storm characteristics?.....
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Similar here Gavin, a bit of standing water around and some fairly strong gusts but nothing too severe. On reading the overnight stuff, it seems that the worst may well be more to the west, we might just miss it.

I cannot provide full analysis though, not like you guys so I'll have to use my own for now.

Back Garden Tree Swayometer: Moderate

Standing Water Outside Garage: Moderate

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Pressure here is 978.6 temp is a balmy 15.6 and 95% humidity heavy rain now but no wind

Wind is coming this afternoon really Marie, could be quite gusty for us:

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Looking forward to some strong winds here this afternoon, current rainfall total sits at 26mm since yesterday morning (we'd only had 3 mm in the whole of September up until that point) , wind currently blowing in from the South at a steady 17mph , highest gust so far today at 25mph, the LP passed overhead at about 6am, as indicated by a fall in wind speed between about 4:30am - 6:30 , should be a very interesting day down here along the South Coast

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Similar here Gavin, a bit of standing water around and some fairly strong gusts but nothing too severe. On reading the overnight stuff, it seems that the worst may well be more to the west, we might just miss it.

I cannot provide full analysis though, not like you guys so I'll have to use my own for now.

Back Garden Tree Swayometer: Moderate

Standing Water Outside Garage: Moderate

Just been looking at the latest BBC Weather video and the worst does seem to be for western parts and the midlands looks lighter than expected in our area

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27.6mm now in total from this system in Swindon, not nearly as much as the 70mm expected overnight. In just a few hours it will have moved north and that will probaly be the end of it. Pressure slowly rising again.

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