Child Of Nadine (karin) - Severe Weather Discussion - Day 2 To 6

[Snow free zone]

Good morning, a bit damp & breezy here atm but very stormy conditions developing throughout today - Just had a quick look at some 00z runs and the models have taken the pressure down to between 970-975mb, resembling a dart board with a very tight core.

Focus of the heaviest rain has shifted west the NAE predicting 140-150mm (5-6inches) over parts of NW England. Phenomenal amounts - serious flooding could result. Possibly a red warning??

Morning Liam. Was just going to say it looks like us in the NW will miss out on the worst of it. Those charts are very worrying. I have seen others posting what a dry month September has been - well not for us here in the NW, we have already had 100mm of rainfall, fields are already saturated and if we get anything like the amount forecast there will be flooding.

Edited September 24, 2012 by Snow free zone

[itsnowjoke]

hi does this mean that the nw of england will miss the brunt of this?

just raining at the moment and a bit windy but nothing major

[Darandio]

hi does this mean that the nw of england will miss the brunt of this?

just raining at the moment and a bit windy but nothing major

By the looks of it, the NW hasn't even got started yet.

[Snow free zone]

hi does this mean that the nw of england will miss the brunt of this?

just raining at the moment and a bit windy but nothing major

No, the NAE charts Liam posted have the NW right in the centre of the heaviest rainfall, with anything from 100 -150mm forecast. Worth noting though it is only one models prediction. Meto currently dont have us under an amber warning, so it very much an nowcast position.

[pyrotech]

Most systems have a warm sector, Sometimes in winter we can have something move down from the Artic, Snow is expected but it has a warm sector that just spoils the party, one such system did this last winter and disapointed a few on here.

The tropical air has been trapped within the outer core but the major issue here is where down in the lower latitudes it was only on pressure that the systems density and energy release is controlled by, it is now dependant on pressure and temperature. Different temperatures will help the system release energy in form of windspeed and percipitation. This can not be a tropical storm now,

[Fitzwis]

Morning all - very windy here in Jersey at the moment, but dry (thank goodness) after all the rain we had yesterday --- I encountered two trees down this morning which caused huge tailbacks into the town centre - fortunately, nobody injured. Stay safe across the Channel today folks

Edited September 24, 2012 by Fitzwis

[Michelle Baker]

Quite a few of my friends on Facebook mentioning floods around Bristol. I've attached a few pictures!

[itsnowjoke]

ok cheers we will just have to wait and see

[Guest]

If Karin was begat down in the Atlantic somewhere to the west of Gibralter from a tropical storm mother why is it that It was so damned cold at Watford yesterday?

[toggerob]

The rains barely touching 8mm in Buxton so far today, with the more noticeable aspect being the temperature in it getting barely about 10'c under all this murk and rain. Winds so far have been light at 22mph max gusts but things are likely to change by this evening as the LP edges further north.

[Thunder Snow]

Winds have eased and te light drizzle has stopped :-/ ah well lol

[toggerob]

Just to add this is this mornings NAE precip range, in having only 8mm fallen so far today it's going to take a heck of a lot to get totals up to +100mm across the Pennines, are the models being gratitious in terms of this expected precip rate?

[Sainsbo]

Just to add this is this mornings NAE precip range, in having only 8mm fallen so far today it's going to take a heck of a lot to get totals up to +100mm across the Pennines, are the models being gratitious in terms of this expected precip rate?

That does look like it will take a lot to get up to them totals, but the rain will be stalled in them areas for quite some time. That model is quite accurate on the rainfall here so far.

Rain has intensified here in the last 10 minutes. Up to 30mm now.

Edited September 24, 2012 by Sainsbo

[A.J]

Just to add this is this mornings NAE precip range, in having only 8mm fallen so far today it's going to take a heck of a lot to get totals up to +100mm across the Pennines, are the models being gratitious in terms of this expected precip rate?

The rain band moving up from the south is expected to stall and pivot over Northern Eng, Southern Scotland, North Wales & the North Midands as the LP center sits over the western half of the UK, for the next 24-36 hours. This wraparound will dump a lot of rain in these areas

[chiffer]

Yeh I don't see that happening its been raining this morning but if that's TRUE Im due another 140mm, really not feeling that vibe. Can't see the radar at the moment when is the proper rain meant to arrive?

[Maitland]

Still dry here in Perthshire with very little wind to speak about. Wind does appear to be picking up very slightly but at the moment it is just another normal September day.

My understanding is that this system will make her way over Perthshire later this evening.

[pyrotech]

That does look like it will take a lot to get up to them totals, but the rain will be stalled in them areas for quite some time. That model is quite accurate on the rainfall here so far.

The interaction with the jet stream, and temperature contrasts will increase percipitation in the system today.

Pressure and temperature effects how much moisture the air can hold, the air will rise rapidly and cool causing some torrential downpours. Plus the relatively warm tropical air is mixing with polar air, its where these temperature differences meet that rainfall will be most intense.

[Luke]

You can see how the PPN has increased over the last few hours.

[chiffer]

Its got devilishly cold here in the past 10 minutes, winds picking it up now.

[knocker]

Great start to my friends hols in the Lake District.

[Midlands Ice Age]

The interaction with the jet stream, and temperature contrasts will increase percipitation in the system today.

Pressure and temperature effects how much moisture the air can hold, the air will rise rapidly and cool causing some torrential downpours. Plus the relatively warm tropical air is mixing with polar air, its where these temperature differences meet that rainfall will be most intense.

Having just posted on nthe Midlands regional thread....

I can confirm that here in the West Central Midlands thatthe rainfall totals are mounting up.

West Of Birmingham (Shrewsbury , Ludlow) Peops are already reporting over 50mms and still raing heavily and we on the east side of Brum are in the 40 -50mms range with the rainfall (22hours now) intensifying still furthe at the moment.

Midlands Ice Age (if it carries on further will be tempted to change to Midlnds Sea Age)

[toggerob]

Peak District forecast for today

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/loutdoor/mountainsafety/peakdistrict/peakdistrict_latest_pressure.html

Overcast, wet and cold with persistent heavy rain. The heavy rain is likely to lead to significant run-off and dangerous fast-flowing water courses. The rain will also be accompanied by extensive hill fog. Northeasterly gales or severe gales, with a low risk of storm force winds, will ease later this afternoon.

[Barbmac]

We've definitely had around 50 mm here in West Malvern, and it's still pouring. Got a little colder, it's dropped to 9.6^oC outside.

Edit to add: Yes, plenty of hill fog here, we've been sitting in it since yesterday afternoon.

Edited September 24, 2012 by Barbmac

[Bishop Brennan]

Cold, dull, blustery, and lots of torrential rain - other than that it's a perfectly okay day!

31.75mm today so far (currently falling at a rate of 22.50mm per hour!), coupled with the 14.75mm from yesterday afternoon.

Bish

[itsnowjoke]

Still got drizzle