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Child Of Nadine (karin) - Severe Weather Discussion - Day 2 To 6


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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

I've had friends report to me 6" of standing water in some areas around Bristol this morning.

Sounds like Flax Bourton

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

about to travel to north wales from glasgow . Wish me luck

Be careful Aggy! Best of luck and have a safe journey.

Edited by Liam J
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Very interesting comments and analysis from ESTOFEX this morning:

Multiple structural changes occurred and will occur with the consolidating depression, which moves off the Bay of Biscay to the north/northeast. After initiated by a southbound moving upper low with a distinct tropopause fold during the overnight hours of the 21st to the 22nd, roughly 36h of a slightly less barocline atmosphere allowed for some low-end core modification, although negligible (and still classified as a true cold core low). As of writing (23rd), a plume of slightly modified tropical air (modified due to onshore trajectories into the depression's center), encircled most of the center and assisted in disorganized but slightly deeper convection with no distinct banding present. However this pushed the depression near the shallow warm core structure on available phase diagrams. During the afternoon hours of the 23rd however, an approaching frontal boundary from the NW marked the beginning of another round of enhanced baroclinity with models showing the evolution of a distinct tropopause fold over Ireland and UK during the forecast period, bending into the system. This increase of baroclinity results in a rapid deepening phase, which starts around the beginning of my forecast period and offers a central pressure drop of at least 10 K in probably less than 24 h while crossing UK from the SW with a strong turn to the NW during the night.

This results in a quite complex frontal and thermal structure of that low, as the majority of the models now propose some type of thermodynamic core modification. Current thinking is that a moderate warm-core seclusion takes place during the forecast although described history of that depression may offer a better defined LL warm core structure compared to truley extratropical cases. Latest ASCAT scans reveal a quite symmetric near surface wind field with uncontaminated 30-40 kt winds along the W/S and SE-ern fringes (much less defined along the NE quadrant) and this well defined wind field in the lower troposphere remains intact during much of the forecast period.

To complicate that scenario once more, ongoing baroclinic transformation will result in more typical vertical wind field distribution of the extra tropics along the southern fringe, as a strong mid/high-level jet moves in from the west and crosses N-France and Benelux during the night. Along the northern fringe of the depression however (e.g. N-UK and Scotland), no modification is expected until 06Z due to the dominant and still westward pointing wrap-around occlusion, which keeps the shallow warm core intact.

http://www.estofex.org/

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Posted
  • Location: Chester
  • Weather Preferences: the stormier the better...
  • Location: Chester

Wondering if we will see any of it here in Cheshire today. Light rain at the moment but has been fairly constant since about 8pm last night,

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Wondering if we will see any of it here in Cheshire today. Light rain at the moment but has been fairly constant since about 8pm last night,

Was owt but light when I got up an hour or so ago. Seems to have eased a bit now though.

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Posted
  • Location: SW of Sherborne. About a mile from the Somerset border.
  • Location: SW of Sherborne. About a mile from the Somerset border.

53mm from 08.00 yesterday to same time today. Fortunately, I emptied the gauge last night, had I not have done, it would have overflowed! Pretty much stopped now, but still breezy.

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Latest satellite analysis of Karin.

post-9615-0-21090100-1348475054_thumb.gi Very stong winds developed in the SW quadrant of the low, sting jet formation?? Notice the small hook of cloud.

post-9615-0-43972900-1348474927_thumb.pn

Edited by Liam J
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Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Snow, Floods...
  • Location: Shrewsbury

Were getting smashed by the rain in Shropshire, Ludlow has had two inches already according to the radio, and lots of roads flooded in the county this morning, including on my commute to work, which I have never seen before.

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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

40mm of rain here since midnight its finally stopped now but gunna be a intresting day for those further north and east.

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Posted
  • Location: Chester
  • Weather Preferences: the stormier the better...
  • Location: Chester

Wondering if we will see any of it here in Cheshire today. Light rain at the moment but has been fairly constant since about 8pm last night,

Intensifying here now.

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

Very interesting comments and analysis from ESTOFEX this morning:

http://www.estofex.org/

must admit, I don't know a great deal about TS/Hurricane dynamics, but are Estofex claiming that this system has a warm core, thus it's gaining tropical storm characteristics?.....
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Wet and windy here in Darlington but as yet the rain isn't overly heavy

Latest so far

7.1mm of rain has fallen since midnight

Pressure is 991.8hPa

Temperature is 10.2°C

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Posted
  • Location: Redcar, Cleveland
  • Location: Redcar, Cleveland

Similar here Gavin, a bit of standing water around and some fairly strong gusts but nothing too severe. On reading the overnight stuff, it seems that the worst may well be more to the west, we might just miss it.

I cannot provide full analysis though, not like you guys so I'll have to use my own for now.

Back Garden Tree Swayometer: Moderate

Standing Water Outside Garage: Moderate

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton
  • Weather Preferences: snow cold,storms and heat
  • Location: Brighton

Pressure here is 978.6 temp is a balmy 15.6 and 95% humidity heavy rain now but no wind

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Pressure here is 978.6 temp is a balmy 15.6 and 95% humidity heavy rain now but no wind

Wind is coming this afternoon really Marie, could be quite gusty for us:

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level

Looking forward to some strong winds here this afternoon, current rainfall total sits at 26mm since yesterday morning (we'd only had 3 mm in the whole of September up until that point) , wind currently blowing in from the South at a steady 17mph , highest gust so far today at 25mph, the LP passed overhead at about 6am, as indicated by a fall in wind speed between about 4:30am - 6:30 , should be a very interesting day down here along the South Coast

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Wind is coming this afternoon really Marie, could be quite gusty for us:

Posted Image

Amber warning for wind in the far South East http://www.metoffice...ather/warnings/

Edited by Liam J
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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

Couple of updates to share with you this morning:

Latest Weather Alert

Homepage Headline: Really Minging Monday

Yesterday's rain totals show that it was the southern half of the UK which took the bulk of Child of Nadine's wrath, today onward will be a lot more widespread!

post-2-0-51075500-1348476752_thumb.png

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Similar here Gavin, a bit of standing water around and some fairly strong gusts but nothing too severe. On reading the overnight stuff, it seems that the worst may well be more to the west, we might just miss it.

I cannot provide full analysis though, not like you guys so I'll have to use my own for now.

Back Garden Tree Swayometer: Moderate

Standing Water Outside Garage: Moderate

Just been looking at the latest BBC Weather video and the worst does seem to be for western parts and the midlands looks lighter than expected in our area

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Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003

Oh well,

Maybe next time aye.

Nothing but a little light rain here ( Considering only last night we were due 60mm ) Probably had about 8mm

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