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Child Of Nadine (karin) - Severe Weather Discussion - Day 2 To 6

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Please continue your discussion and observations here about the low pressure system spawned by TS Nadine and now known as Karin

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Judging by the radar, Wales and the SW has got hammered last night, has been pretty dry here overnight, expecting the band to shift east soon though so I should still get a soaking.

Edited by Hughsey

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Good morning, a bit damp & breezy here atm but very stormy conditions developing throughout today - Just had a quick look at some 00z runs and the models have taken the pressure down to between 970-975mb, resembling a dart board with a very tight core.

Focus of the heaviest rain has shifted west the NAE predicting 140-150mm (5-6inches) over parts of NW England. Phenomenal amounts - serious flooding could result. Possibly a red warning??

post-9615-0-96380400-1348469508_thumb.pn post-9615-0-23407800-1348469900_thumb.gi

Edited by Liam J

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Morning, I woke up thinking Karin had died, but looking at the radar and warnings, it seems like thing are about to get serious. Those rainfall amounts over wales/north west england look very worrying, it looks like its time to prepare the sandbags and get the possessions upstairs! For me the winds are a bit concerning, the Met has 65-70mph in exposed areas which is very damaging for this time of year. Good luck to everyone in the heavy rain areas, please don't leave it to late to save your possessions and get to safety.

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Good morning, a bit damp & breezy here atm but very stormy conditions developing throughout today - Just had a quick look at some 00z runs and the models have taken the pressure down to between 970-975mb, resembling a dart board with a very tight core.

Focus of the heaviest rain has shifted west the NAE predicting 140-150mm (5-6inches) over parts of NW England. Phenomenal amounts - serious flooding could result. Possibly a red warning??

post-9615-0-96380400-1348469508_thumb.pn post-9615-0-23407800-1348469900_thumb.gi

I would certainly think a red warning is justified - over 100mm of rain in 48 hours in some of the UK's biggest urban areas would cause absolute havoc, and towns like Hebden Bridge are probably still recovering from the summer floods.
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it seems like thing are about to get serious.

I do think things are going to change subtly in terms of areas under threat and the emphasis may be on strong winds today in the South, with the secondary threat of rain across the country and stronger winds transferring North

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Karin is becoming locked into the strong left exit region of the jet, with strong vertical velocity as all that warmth and moisture within start to rise. Massive latent heat release as well, with a new phase of cyclogenisis about to commence. NAE takes it down to 968mb, NMM 970mb. The satellite images should be fantastic Posted Image

Edited by Liam J

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It's been raining very heavily for several hours in West Malvern, the rain gauge is about to overflow. Woke up to find the roof is leaking, too, so not a good start to the day.

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Conditions are worsening by the minute hear roads are flowing, and im not even in the thick of it here! whats my outlook anyone?

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Karin is becoming locked into the strong left exit region of the jet, with strong vertical velocity as all that warmth and moisture within start to rise. Massive latent heat release as well, with a new phase of cyclogenisis about to commence. NAE takes it down to 968mb, NMM 970mb. The satellite images should be fantastic Posted Image

Morning Liam...yes, recent infrared satellite imagery shows rapid development over the last couple of so hours with some cold (thus high) cloud tops going up pushing into southern counties and Wales/West Midlands...interesting indeed
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Gusty winds for us South East lot today:

Posted Image

Owww, there's a surprise, more rain..... :doh:

Posted Image

Posted Image

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I've had friends report to me 6" of standing water in some areas around Bristol this morning.

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Well I definitely spoke too soon yesterday!! Very heavy rain here, and still hammering it down now. I don't have a rain gauge but I left a 1 litre jug outside that had some pre mixed dog shampoo in to the total of 400ml, and that is now overflowing. The swim to work could well be interesting. Now where did I put those arm bands? lol

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We've had 36mm of rain in the past 24hrs, most of which seems to have fallen after eight o'clock yesterday evening.

Still belting it down here, and is forecast to do so for several hours more I believe.

Bish

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anyone got some more links to satelites to watch her dance and swirl? my http://www.yr.no/sat..._animasjon.html is just showing blank

Try my site for Some satelite images along with live rain gauge and live river cameras to monitor Child of Nadine.

Plus do not take your eyes off Mum just yet, Our hurricane pages have latest info and hurricane tracking has latest projected tracks of mum, will she try to follow her child? Floodwarn

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Morning Liam...yes, recent infrared satellite imagery shows rapid development over the last couple of so hours with some cold (thus high) cloud tops going up pushing into southern counties and Wales/West Midlands...interesting indeed

Very interesting! Rapid cloud head development now as the sharp upper trough and jet streak plunge southwards from Greenland and get to work on Karin.

post-9615-0-27960500-1348472623_thumb.pn

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Rain and strong winds lash the UK

  • Met Office rain warnings are in place for much of the UK
  • Drivers warned of rain disruption
  • Flood alert follows heavy rain
  • High winds and rain to lash NI
Most of the UK is braced for an average monthly rainfall within the next 24 hours as summer comes to an abrupt end. Winds of up to 60mph will hit the north of England and south of Scotland, while other areas could see 80mm of rain before Monday evening, forecasters say. The Environment Agency issued 65 flood alerts, mainly in south-west England, and 11 warnings for the South West. Northern Ireland is set to be severely affected, while a woman was killed by a falling tree branch in London.

Police said the 30-year-old died on Sunday at the Royal Botanical Gardens in Kew, south-west London, during rain and gusts of wind close to 30mph. The New Zealand Herald quoted the country's foreign affairs ministry confirming the woman was a New Zealander living in London.

Met Office forecaster Helen Roberts said, as of 20:00 BST on Sunday, Hurn, in Dorset, had recorded the highest level of rainfall with 27.4mm, while Haywards Heath in West Sussex has had 27mm of rain. Winds of up to 53mph have been recorded at the Isle of Portland in Dorset and at St Catherine's Point on the Isle of Wight, she added.

Travel disruption

Met Office amber warnings - advising people to be prepared for severe weather - are in place for London, south-east, south-west, north-east and north-west England, Northern Ireland, Wales, central Scotland, south-west Scotland, Lothian and Borders, Tayside and Fife, the West Midlands and Yorkshire and the Humber.

Lesser yellow warnings - indicating that people should be aware - are in place for much of the rest of the UK. There are six flood warnings - meaning flooding is expected - in place in the South West. The adverse conditions are affecting travel in some areas.

In other developments:

Heavy rain is causing major travel disruption in Devon and Cornwall, with London trains suspended. There is one flood alert in place for Wales, as more heavy rain is forecast. Severe weather - including strong winds and rain - is forecast for Northern Ireland

Helen Chivers, from the Met Office, said: "The centre of the low pressure is expected to move north towards south-west England during Sunday night leading to increasingly strong winds.

"Most of the UK will see between 20mm and 40mm of rain with some areas getting as much as 80mm of rain." The Met Office said the average monthly rain fall varied across the UK but in London the September average was 49mm, for Plymouth it was 78mm, Yorkshire 74mm, Ayrshire 131mm, Londonderry 94mm and Northumberland 74mm. "Winds of up to 60mph are expected across northern England, southern England, particularly in coastal areas, and southern Scotland," added Ms Chivers.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-19693499

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Winds really starting to whip up now over parts of the east coast and also W-NW gales developing across the Channel - I hope you've got your hatches battened down now folks as Miss Karin has stepped up her attack into top gear!!

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

Edited by Liam J

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I was intending to travel up to Manchester (AShton) to pick up some solar panels and then watch the Blackpool game this evening..........

I think postponing both may be a good idea!!.

The bulk of the rain has moved far west of where it was predicted to fall even 24 hours ago, the speed this system has developed at has been fascinating to watch since the first hints on here on Wednesday night.

I'm off down to the marina now to loosen some ropes and get stuff off the banks, as by this time tommorow, they will be underwater.

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about to travel to north wales from glasgow . Wish me luck

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