Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

October CET Value


damianslaw

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

To give this discussion some relevant data, I took the CET daily means in my data file and looked at means for the period (11 days) from 21 to 31 October which seems to be the interval that could turn warmer.

The three highest means for this period, with finishing monthly CET values in brackets, were:

2005 ... 13.3 (13.1)

2009 ... 12.9 (11.6)

1968 ... 12.2 (12.5)

Meanwhile, in 1895 the mean for the period was only 2.8 C and that dragged the month down to 7.1 ... more recently, in 2003 the month had a last eleven days at 5.8 for a 9.2 C mean. In 1997 a cold finish took the month out of the top ranks, last eleven days at 5.9, month at 10.2.

My guess is that this month will end with a period near 11.5 to 12 allowing for a monthly mean in the 10.5 to 10.9 range.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

To give this discussion some relevant data, I took the CET daily means in my data file and looked at means for the period (11 days) from 21 to 31 October which seems to be the interval that could turn warmer.

The three highest means for this period, with finishing monthly CET values in brackets, were:

2005 ... 13.3 (13.1)

2009 ... 12.9 (11.6)

1968 ... 12.2 (12.5)

Meanwhile, in 1895 the mean for the period was only 2.8 C and that dragged the month down to 7.1 ... more recently, in 2003 the month had a last eleven days at 5.8 for a 9.2 C mean. In 1997 a cold finish took the month out of the top ranks, last eleven days at 5.9, month at 10.2.

My guess is that this month will end with a period near 11.5 to 12 allowing for a monthly mean in the 10.5 to 10.9 range.

I really don't see where you get a figure over 11C from unless you expect a second plume.

Looking at the models we can see a grand total of 4 potentially warm looking days with warm uppers.. but!.. Sunday will see rain over England depressing maxima which reduces the total to 3.

Now Monday does indeed look warm but for tuesday onward there is likely going to be an inversion (looks cloudy to me potentially as well so potential fog)..

Despite 10C uppers we see that the length of night is sufficient to have neutralised the warmth in a stagnant air flow and Theta-t charts indicate well how an inversion could form (not a strong one but certainly not one to deliver double figure nights)..

Rtavn1207.png

Unless theres a switch to a second plume i guarantee that we are not breaching 10.5C.

Edited by summer blizzard
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Well it'll be interesting too see but GFS reckons double figure night time. Either way CET will go up the next question will be "Will the projected cold snap appear" if it does this will cancel out the brief Indian summer.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Well it'll be interesting too see but GFS reckons double figure night time. Either way CET will go up the next question will be "Will the projected cold snap appear" if it does this will cancel out the brief Indian summer.

Sunday and Monday night will likely be warm but whilst the GFS theta-t's are great at picking up potential inversions ect.. the GFS temperature forecasts are pretty rubbish for stuff like that at the surface.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Massive downgrade on the mild spell tonight and the cold spell still looks vigourous. So everything up in the air at the moment. It will be interesting what the ECM comes up with.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

10.2C to the 19th

Last night was 6.7C

Minimas looking a bit lower than were previous forecast. We will be lucky to get to 10.5C before we drop rapidly from the 26th.

If we are 10.5C to the 25th and the last 6 days average 6C, then we will come in at 9.6C before adjustments, which seems about reasonable to me.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Looks like today will come in around 10.2C, so no change on tomorrows update.

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET around

10.2C to the 21st (10.3)

10.3C to the 22nd (12.0)

10.4C to the 23rd (13.9)

10.6C to the 24th (13.4)

10.6C to the 25th (11.7)

10.5C to the 26th (8.7)

10.3C to the 27th (5.3)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

10.2C to the 19th

Last night was 6.7C

Minimas looking a bit lower than were previous forecast. We will be lucky to get to 10.5C before we drop rapidly from the 26th.

If we are 10.5C to the 25th and the last 6 days average 6C, then we will come in at 9.6C before adjustments, which seems about reasonable to me.

I never realized just how much it could fall in 6 days, 9.7C or less and we are 1C below the 1981-2010 average again.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Looks like today will come in around 10.2C, so no change on tomorrows update.

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET around

10.2C to the 21st (10.3)

10.3C to the 22nd (12.0)

10.4C to the 23rd (13.9)

10.6C to the 24th (13.4)

10.6C to the 25th (11.7)

10.5C to the 26th (8.7)

10.3C to the 27th (5.3)

Minima now projected to be cooler than first forecast, and the only real mild days will be Monday-Wednesday mild maxima will be offset by cooler minima, I suspect we will be below 10 degrees by the 27th thanks to a couple of preety cold nights on Thursday and especially Friday. A sub 10 degree finish now looks almost certain, and there is a strong likelihood we will finish below 9.5 degrees, which will mean the sixth below average CET month of the year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl

8.6C here

Met Office forecast shows lows of 10c but highs of.. 11c.. so at least the days will be cool. Then again their track record recently of overnight lows has been poor at best.

Edited by Aaron
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

Hadley is on 10.2C to the 20th, yesterday came in at 10.4C.

Today's minima is rather low at 5.1C and maxima are pretty supressed in quite a few areas so we could even see a fall tomorrow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

Hadley is on 10.2C to the 20th, yesterday came in at 10.4C.

Today's minima is rather low at 5.1C and maxima are pretty supressed in quite a few areas so we could even see a fall tomorrow.

GFS minima forecasts at 1-2 days out have been woeful in the last few days

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

Looks like the 5th month this year that is going to return a month that will be at least 0.5C below the 1961-90 average. I was pinching myself when I wrote that because to think how we use to struggle to return such months and then got excited by a month that was only a tiny bit below the 1971-2000 average!

Edited by Weather-history
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester

2008-2012 (upto and including October) average 6 months below 71-000 normal or 50% of the year

2003 - 2007 it's only 2.4 or just 20% of the year was below normal

Certainly a big turnaround. 2012 could yet have the largest number of below average months. Currently at 6 to October, 2010 had 8. Both 1979 and 1987 had 9

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom

Looks like the 5th month this year that is going to return a month that will be at least 0.5C below the 1961-90 average. I was pinching myself when I wrote that because to think how we use to struggle to return such months and then got excited by a month that was only a tiny bit below the 1971-2000 average!

Stratosferric, North Easterly Blast, Ian Brown,Tamara and Snowmaiden should see this. Edited by Craig Evans
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland

Interesting stuff. I feared by 9.7c would be a touch too low but that looks like it could be just right if not a touch too high.

The poor summer synoptics have put pay too any notable warmth, and now it's up to Nov and Dec to be stay around average or below and make this a pretty cold year without any truly notable cold months. In a time of rising temperatures in the world, it's an achievement I guess.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

All of October is in High Res on GFS now. I calculate the period 26th-31st to come in at around 4.3C

If the CET to 25th is 10.5C, then that would mean the CET will fall to 9.3C by month end if GFS is correct.

There is the possibility that it might not quite get to 10.5C and we have month end adjustments to consider also, so a sub 9C month cannot be ruled out categorically.

That said, I would say that we have a greater than 90% probability of being in the range of 9.1C to 9.6C

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Well with this mild spell nobody considered the cloud and fog keeping the day time temps surpressed. So by day we're below normal but by night above. End result for us a slow rise to 9.3C It was 9.1C sunday rounded up. It the cloud and fog remain 10.5C by the 25th will be a close call in the CET zone.

Fort Sunny Sheffield we may get our coldest October since 1993.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom

I bet there won't be much difference between either half of October 2012 and the second halfs of December 2011 and February 2012 and both halfs of March 2012. By the way I forgot the name of that website that had the C.E.T for each half of every month.

Edited by Craig Evans
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

12z downgrades the cold between now and the end of the month, but the CET will still take a tumble

Predictions -

24th - 10.3C

25th - 10.4C

26th - 10.6C

27th - 9.9C

28th - 9.7C

29th - 9.7C

30th - 9.6C

31st - 9.5C

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Suspect the final CET figure will end up in the 9-9.5 degree range. The rest of the month will be cold or cool with no mild conditions i.e. temps will be at or below average, the northern half of the country may now stuggle to see double figures again this month, indeed maxima in the range of 4-9 degrees will be the order of the day in the north, and 7-12 degrees in the south.

I'm quite pleased with my CET call this month, I'll be at least within 1 degree, unlike many months this year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...