October CET Value

[Weather-history]

Perhaps the coldest since 1919?

That would mean March being warmer than October in the same year. That has never happened for the CET.

[Stu_London]

That would mean March being warmer than October in the same year. That has never happened for the CET.

I'd give it about a 10-20% chance of happening at the moment. Certainly looks like after today we will start dropping again with some cold nights in the offing. Probably need a northerly incursion followed by anticyclonic conditions in the final 3rd of the month to be in with a shout.

[summer blizzard]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

10.7C to the 11th.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is 8.6C while maxima are around 13C, so remaining at 10.7C tomorrow.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

10.6C to the 13th (9.0)

10.4C to the 14th (7.6)

10.2C to the 15th (7.3)

10.1C to the 16th (9.8]

10.1C to the 17th (9.2)

10.1C to the 18th (10.5)

10.1C to the 19th (9.8]

[Stu_London]

10.4C to the 13th - yeasterday came in at 7.6C provisionally - the coldest day value since may 5th.

Last night's provisional minimum was 0.9C.

A couple more steepish drops today and tomorrow, should see the CET mark around 10C by the 15th. Looks like it will hover around that value for a few days thereafter as slightly milder air tries to get estabilshed

[BornFromTheVoid]

The models have certainly trended quite cooler for the near term.

The 06z GFS would have the CET around

10.1C to the 14th (5.9)

9.9C to the 15th (7.5)

10.0C to the 16th (10.4)

10.0C to the 17th (10.4)

10.1C to the 18th (11.7)

10.0C to the 19th (9.2)

10.0C to the 20th (9.9)

10.0C to the 21st (10.1)

Sub 10C October perhaps 50/50 now

[damianslaw]

Nearing half way juncture and the CET looks like stalling somewhat in the coming days - hovering around the 10 degree mark. Thereafter, we may well see a rise if what the models are showing today verifies by the end of next week. Hard then to say where we might likely finish, a prolonged mild spell during the end of the month would easily prevent a sub 10 degree figure, but a shorter lived milder spell followed by an average period would increase chances of sub 10 degree markedly, a cold end would probably mean a sub 10 degree finish guaranteed, but the chances of a sub 9 degree figure look quite slim at the moment.

[Stu_London]

Nearing half way juncture and the CET looks like stalling somewhat in the coming days - hovering around the 10 degree mark. Thereafter, we may well see a rise if what the models are showing today verifies by the end of next week. Hard then to say where we might likely finish, a prolonged mild spell during the end of the month would easily prevent a sub 10 degree figure, but a shorter lived milder spell followed by an average period would increase chances of sub 10 degree markedly, a cold end would probably mean a sub 10 degree finish guaranteed, but the chances of a sub 9 degree figure look quite slim at the moment.

agree sub 9 looks a long shot, although a fair chunk of the month remains in FI at present.

for the month to be above 10 would require the 2nd half of the month to be warmer than the 1st. I suspect there are very few Octobers that have managed that.

[Lettucing Gutted]

for the month to be above 10 would require the 2nd half of the month to be warmer than the 1st. I suspect there are very few Octobers that have managed that.

We managed that as recently as October 2009. Edited October 15, 2012 by Craig Evans

[DR Hosking]

10.2c to the 14th

[Stu_London]

We managed that as recently as October 2009.

If the current output is believed - it could happen again this year.

[The PIT]

If the current output is believed - it could happen again this year.

Yes a shift from a cool/cold outlook to a much milder one. May all change yet though.

[Stu_London]

Yes a shift from a cool/cold outlook to a much milder one. May all change yet though.

Indeed - the really mild stuff is still FI and about a third of the ensembles want to go cold in the last few days of the month.

[reef]

Hadley is 10.0C to the 15th. Yesterday was 8.1C.

[Stu_London]

A slight warming trend looks likely between now and the 22nd, but nothing too dramatic - perhaps rising back towards 10.3 or maybe 10.4.

As anyone who has visited the model output discussion thread will know, the last week is completely up in the air at the moment. The 12GFS, outlier that it was would probably bring in a CET of about 3-4C for the final week, which could get us as low as about 8.6C before adjustments. Equally there are several runs that keep the upper air above average, which would maintain us in the low 10s.

Normally by halfway, I'd like to think I could nail it to within half a degree and be right most of the time, however at this point I would say the range is 8.5C to about 10.7C and I really have not a clue which way it will go.

[summer blizzard]

Given that the ECWMF still maintains a coolish pattern i would say that sub-10C is 70% likely, 15% each for 10C+ and <9C.

[The PIT]

Should be a rapid rise next week as an Indian summer pushes in from the South East. Night time lows close to the day time max so I would reckon sub ten is unlikely. Before that little or no change. If any change it will be upwards.

Edited October 17, 2012 by The PIT

[Lettucing Gutted]

Should be a rapid rise next week as an Indian summer pushes in from the South East. Night time lows close to the day time max so I would reckon sub ten is unlikely. Before that little or no change. If any change it will be upwards.

Top 25 warmest Octobers. Here we come again...

[Aaron]

Should be a rapid rise next week as an Indian summer pushes in from the South East. Night time lows close to the day time max so I would reckon sub ten is unlikely. Before that little or no change. If any change it will be upwards.

Indian summer? For whom? No temps above 15C forecast here.

[Stu_London]

Should be a rapid rise next week as an Indian summer pushes in from the South East. Night time lows close to the day time max so I would reckon sub ten is unlikely. Before that little or no change. If any change it will be upwards.

Lets not forget that the temperature can be 3-4C above average at the end of an autumn month and the CET can still fall. We will get a rise, but not much and the last week still looks cooler to cold. Sub10 still favourite for me.

[Stu_London]

Top 25 warmest Octobers. Here we come again...

Chances of October 2012 CET being above 11.7C = zero

Meanwhile, back in the real world - CET held steady at 10.0C to the 16th. Overnight min for 17th 5.2C, so probably no move for the 17th.

The next 7 days look like a rising CET - probably to something like 10.6C by the 24th

[Aaron]

In my back yard, even if every day from now until the 31st had a max of 15C and a min of 8C, we would still have a mean below 10C.

Bar the 1st day, every single day this month has had a mean temperature below 10C and there have been no double digit nights at all.

The mean minimum is also 4.0c and if you exclude the first night (which had a min of 9.6c) the mean min is actually 3.7c.

Edited October 18, 2012 by Aaron

[DR Hosking]

10.1c up too 17th

[damianslaw]

Whilst maxima will be notably mild by the weekend and into next week, will be interesting to see how low minima becomes, if we see clear skies and lighter winds, the longer nights may produce some cool minima... however, uppers do look quite high.. we are at the point in the year when continental air changes from being warm to more often than not cold, but we're not quite there yet and central europe is still quite warm.

I do think there is still a high chance of the CET ending up sub 10 degrees, and anything above 10.5 degrees now looks highly unlikely.

[TonyH]

Yeah looking like low 10s.