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October CET Value


damianslaw

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Posted
  • Location: South Woodham Ferrers, height 15 metres
  • Location: South Woodham Ferrers, height 15 metres

Sorry, day late.

10.8C.

My September forecast was terrible and I'm doing badly overall this year. Can't wait for end November, if/when this great contest starts over.

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I spent part of yesterday putting the scores into the spreadsheet for the September comp, and then forgot to enter the October one on time. doh.gif

So my entry with its deserved 10 point penalty is 10.8c.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Looks like an overall cool outlook to me bar the weekend when we may get some high minima.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

October CET averages and trivia

20.2 ... warmest day, 1st 1985

20.1 ... second warmest day, 1st 2011

14.0 ... Craig Evans

13.3 ... -------- warmest month 2001 -------

13.1 ... -------- second warmest month 2005 ----------

13.0 ... -------- third warmest months, 1969 and 2006 ------------

12.9 ...

12.8 ...

12.7 ... -------- 8th warmest, warmest of 19th century 1831 ---------

12.6 ... Styx

12.5 ...

12.4 ...

12.3 ... -------- tied 12th and warnest of 18th century 1731 ---------

12.2 ...

12.1 ...

12.0 ...

11.9 ...

11.8 ...

11.7 ...

11.6 ... AWD, Thundery winter showers, Mark 'Ox' Neal

11.5 ... Jack Wales, davehsug

11.4 ... BornFromTheVoid, pj20101

11.3 ... -------- mean 2001-2011 ------------

11.2 ... coram

11.1 ... Kentish Man

11.0 ... Milhouse, Weather-history, Harve, A Winter's Tale, TonyH

10.9 ... Norrance, Stargazer

10.8 ... Roger J Smith, AtlanticFlamethrower* Jackone*

10.7 ... Rybris Ponce, Paul T, Don .......................... -------- mean 1981-2010 ------------

10.6 ... Stationary Front, Ferryhill Weather* ........... -------- mean 1961-1990 ------------

10.5 ... DeepSnow, Mark Bayley, DR Hosking, AderynCoch

10.4 ... 22nov10blast, reef

10.3 ... Barry95, Summer Sun .......... -------- mean 1971-2000 ------------

10.2 ... summer blizzard, mulzy .... .... -------- mean 1901-2000 ------------

10.1 ... Snowstorm1, Radiating Dendrite, The Watcher

10.0 ... stewfox, Aaron, Gavin P, shuggee

9.9 .... ruzzi (snowboy), sundog, Duncan McAlister

9.8 .... SnOwFeSt, fozfoster, damianslaw

9.7 .... Isolated Frost ................... -------- mean for all years 1659-2011 -----------

9.6 .... Pomeroysnow, godber

9.5 .... SteveB, The PIT .............. -------- mean 1801-1900 ------------

9.4 .... March Blizzard .................. -------- mean 1701-1800 ------------

9.3 .... BARRY, backtrack* .......... -------- mean 1659-1700 ------------

9.2 .... Terminal Moraine

9.1 .... Polar Maritime

9.0 .... vizzy2004, Gael_Force

8.9 ....

8.8 .... virtualsphere

8.5 .... Robbie Garrett

7.8 .... tied 26th coldest, coldest recent past, 1974 and 1992

7.5 .... tied 8th coldest, coldest 20th century 1905

6.5 .... tied 3rd coldest, 1683 and 1692

6.4 .... second coldest 1817

5.3 .... coldest 1740

0.3 .... coldest day (since 1772, guessing some subzero days in 1740) 29th, 1895

_____________________________________________________________

* entries late by one day (none posted after that)

The median of 64 entries is 10.35

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

If its even 11.7C we are all screwed.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Minimum today is 5.5C while maxima were around 14C, so a drop to around 11.6C is likely tomorrow.

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET aroud

11.5C to the 5th (11.0)

11.4C to the 6th (10.8]

11.2C to the 7th (10.5)

11.4C to the 8th (12.8]

11.3C to the 9th (9.9)

11.1C to the 10th (9.7)

11.0C to the 11th (10.2)

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

Sorry for being a few days late, but will have a guess anyway: 10.5*C. I feel the second half of the month could share some similarities to October 2008 with the UK receiving a very early wintry spell near the end of the month via a potent Northerly. But I admit this opinion is a bit biased due to the fact this is what I want to happen, too. ;-)

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

This is bound to come up, so ...

The coldest first half of October, whether you take 1-15 or 1-16, is 6.4 C from 1888, and the same applies to second coldest in 1817 which was 6.7 C in either period you want. More recently 1974 managed 7.9 (8.0) for these periods.

The warmest was 15.4 in 1921 which fell to 15.1 if you take 1-16.

The 240-year mean (1772 to 2011) was 10.9 C and this has risen to 11.8 C in the last 30 year period 1981-2010. Last year of course was very warm as well, at 14.8 C.

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Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl

So far here...

Mean max 13.8c

Mean min 6.2

Mean 10.0c

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Yup, not a shred of warmth on the models so we should be significantly below the rolling average by mid-month.

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

A mid month mark around 10.5-11.0 looks plausible.

Decent chance of going sub 10 for the month, given the the 2nd half of October is when the CET should be falling at it's fastest.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

11.5C to the 5th

http://www.metoffice..._info_mean.html

Yesterday was 10.8C. Minimum today is 5.5C while maxima look like being around 14C, so a drop to 11.3C or 11.2C is likely tomorrow.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET around

11.0C to the 7th (9.5)

11.0C to the 8th (10.6)

10.8C to the 9th (9.9)

10.7C to the 10th (9.3)

10.7C to the 11th (10.6)

10.7C to the 12th (10.4)

10.5C to the 13th (9.0)

A below average first half of the month is very likely at this stage

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

Yesterday came in at 9.2C and the provisional CET to the 7th is 11.0 (-1.2)

Last night was 6C and with maxes suppressed under cloudy/rainy skies today, we should see another fall tomorrow.

Thereafter we have a run of days where the daily value is either just over or just under 10C, so uneven downward pressure through to mid-month looks the likely pattern. There are some warm days in FI, but they are in FI. Equally it looks like some northern blocking could occur and if we end up on the colder side of that the 2nd half of October could easily be on the cool side too.

I would favour somewhere between 9C and 10C at the moment, but if the 2nd half does end up even a little below average, then something in the 8s couldn't be ruled out. Equally if some of the warmer stuff in FI did come to pass, then we might stay in double figures.

Any guess over 10.5C is toast in my opinion.

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

Yesterday came in at 9.2C and the provisional CET to the 7th is 11.0 (-1.2)

Last night was 6C and with maxes suppressed under cloudy/rainy skies today, we should see another fall tomorrow.

Thereafter we have a run of days where the daily value is either just over or just under 10C, so uneven downward pressure through to mid-month looks the likely pattern. There are some warm days in FI, but they are in FI. Equally it looks like some northern blocking could occur and if we end up on the colder side of that the 2nd half of October could easily be on the cool side too.

I would favour somewhere between 9C and 10C at the moment, but if the 2nd half does end up even a little below average, then something in the 8s couldn't be ruled out. Equally if some of the warmer stuff in FI did come to pass, then we might stay in double figures.

Any guess over 10.5C is toast in my opinion.

It seems my guess of 10.4C is looking alright then! Personally I think I've gone too high, I can't see any real warmth taking hold.

A sub 9C October would be pretty awesome.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

It seems my guess of 10.4C is looking alright then! Personally I think I've gone too high, I can't see any real warmth taking hold.

A sub 9C October would be pretty awesome.

To win these competitions outside winter it is best to be too high but lower than the rest which we are (i went for 10.2C) as most people go average to warm.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Its been a preety chilly start to October over the northern half of the country, low minima combined with below average maxima, and the theme continues. Very good chance this October could be the coldest since 2003.

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Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl

So far here..

MEAN 9.32 MEAN MAX 13.25 MEAN MIN 5.41

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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom

Another target to aim for would be that this is the first October since 2004 not to achieve a maximum temperature of 20C or higher anywhere in the country.

Edited by Craig Evans
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Posted
  • Location: North York Moors
  • Location: North York Moors

8.4C here today which is -1.5C.

Considering the usual pattern is to start well above the month mean then slowly drop as autumn sets in, the potential is there for another notably below average month.

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

Its been a preety chilly start to October over the northern half of the country, low minima combined with below average maxima, and the theme continues. Very good chance this October could be the coldest since 2003.

If the teleconnections being excitedly talked about prove to be pointing in the direction everyone hopes they are then I think we may need to look further back than 2003. Perhaps the coldest since 1919?

To achieve this we would need the mid month period to remain on the cold side, with no warm spells and a very potent cold attack in the final 3rd of the month - not impossible given some of the FI solutions already being played with by the forecasting models.

Meanwhile, we are 10.8C after yesterday weighed in at 9.8C

6z GFS is a cold run in the short term - suggesting a mid month value in the mid 9s

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

10.6C to the 9th.

No real warmth in sight (luckily any potential minima highs are being overruled by low maxima).

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

10.6C to the 10th.

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