October CET Value

[SnOwFeSt]

9.8 please!

[Radiating Dendrite]

10.1c

[Relativistic]

10.4C please.

[Stu_London]

I'm not going to enter a guess because I haven't bothered for the rest of the year.

However the first week looks on the cool side after an average couple of days to start (a bit FI, but decent ensemble agreement). Probably around 10C or just over by the 7th. No guarantees but with the statisitical high probabiility of the 2nd half of the month being cooler than the first, I would say we have a great shout of being sub 10C this month.

[Milhouse]

11.0c thanks

[Fozfoster]

9.8c please

[Guest pjl20101]

Going for 11.4, warmish first half followed by an average/slightly cooler second half. Also a bit wetter than average too.

[The PIT]

I'll go for 9.5C

[Terminal Moraine]

I'm hoping for something to challenge 1740 but more realistically I'll go for 9.2c.

[Ruzzi]

I'll plump for 9.9C please

[Stu_London]

I'm not going to enter a guess because I haven't bothered for the rest of the year.

However the first week looks on the cool side after an average couple of days to start (a bit FI, but decent ensemble agreement). Probably around 10C or just over by the 7th. No guarantees but with the statisitical high probabiility of the 2nd half of the month being cooler than the first, I would say we have a great shout of being sub 10C this month.

Quite a turnaround in the last couple of days as GFS is now suggesting the first week might come out at something like 14C

Ensembles suggest a big cooldown thereafter - however has October ever been warmer than September?

[Stu_London]

Quite a turnaround in the last couple of days as GFS is now suggesting the first week might come out at something like 14C

Ensembles suggest a big cooldown thereafter - however has October ever been warmer than September?

Answer - twice but not since 1807 - 2001 was within 0.1C degree.

Edited September 28, 2012 by Stu_London

[Jack Wales]

11.5 for me

[Norrance]

10.9C please.

[Gael_Force]

9.0 c please.

[Weather-history]

11.0C

[Paul T]

_9.4

_{Its been a strange year. high pressure dominating in October? surely not!}

[DR Hosking]

It will definitely be 10.5c, my tactic is to be confident this month!

[Stationary Front]

10.6 for me please

[coram]

11.2 please

[mulzy]

10.2C please

[sundog]

9.9c for me please.

[Roger J Smith]

This may help last-minute entrants find a good number ...

October CET averages and trivia

20.2 ... warmest day, 1st 1985

20.1 ... second warmest day, 1st 2011

14.0 ... Craig Evans

13.3 ... -------- warmest month 2001 -------

13.1 ... -------- second warmest month 2005 ----------

13.0 ... -------- third warmest months, 1969 and 2006 ------------

12.9 ...

12.8 ...

12.7 ... -------- 8th warmest, warmest of 19th century 1831 ---------

12.6 ... Styx

12.5 ...

12.4 ...

12.3 ... -------- tied 12th and warnest of 18th century 1731 ---------

12.2 ...

12.1 ...

12.0 ...

11.9 ...

11.8 ...

11.7 ...

11.6 ... AWD

11.5 ... Jack Wales

11.4 ... BornFromTheVoid, pj20101

11.3 ... -------- mean 2001-2011 ------------

11.2 ... coram

11.1 ...

11.0 ... Milhouse, Weather-history

10.9 ... Norrance

10.8 ... Roger J Smith

10.7 ... Rybris Ponce .... -------- mean 1981-2010 ------------

10.6 ... Stationary Front .... -------- mean 1961-1990 ------------

10.5 ... DeepSnow, Mark Bayley, DR Hosking

10.4 ... 22nov10blast

10.3 ... Barry95 .... -------- mean 1971-2000 ------------

10.2 ... summer blizzard, mulzy .... .... -------- mean 1901-2000 ------------

10.1 ... Snowstorm1, Radiating Dendrite

10.0 ... stewfox

9.9 .... ruzzi (snowboy), sundog

9.8 .... SnOwFeSt, fozfoster

9.7 .... Isolated Frost .... -------- mean for all years 1659-2011 -----------

9.6 .... Pomeroysnow

9.5 .... SteveB, The PIT .... -------- mean 1801-1900 ------------

9.4 .... Paul T .... -------- mean 1701-1800 ------------

9.3 .... -------- mean 1659-1700 ------------

9.2 .... Terminal Moraine

9.1 ....

9.0 .... vizzy2004, Gael_Force

8.5 ... Robbie Garrett

7.8 .... tied 26th coldest, coldest recent past, 1974 and 1992

7.5 .... tied 8th coldest, coldest 20th century 1905

6.5 .... tied 3rd coldest, 1683 and 1692

6.4 .... second coldest 1817

5.3 .... coldest 1740

0.3 .... coldest day (since 1772, guessing some subzero days in 1740) 29th, 1895

[Polar Maritime]

Thanks RJS,

My guess is 9.1c please.

[virtualsphere]

8.8C for me please