October CET Value

[damianslaw]

Think it's high time we start the October 2012 CET thread.

I don't have the 61-90, 71-00 or 81-10 values to hand - could someone please post these.

As usual I will leave my prediction until later in the week. My early hunch is for a below average month - how much below I'm not sure, but it could end up similiar to Sept, with a warm start cancelled out by some rather cool conditions at times thanks to an active atlantic and meridional flow..

Please use this thread to post your thoughts and predictions for the coming month.

I do like October, it is a month of rapid change and feel. The latter part of the month is one of my most favourite times of year weatherwise - with good potential for stormy wet weather and the first proper frosts along with the first dustings of snow for the highest ground.

[Relativistic]

I won't make a prediction yet, but I'm hoping we get a good mixture of stormy periods and frosty periods. My perfect month would be a mild, stormy start, then followed by a calmer, colder finish.

[Robbie Garrett]

8.5*C

Fairly wet and mild to start of with, with 2/3rd of the month becoming cold and possibly very cold.

[Lettucing Gutted]

14C

[summer blizzard]

I believe that October will be a wetter than average month (not exceptionally so) but also fairly cool.

I shall go for 0.5C below the 1981-2010 average once somebody enlightens us as to what it is.

[March Blizzard]

Nearly October already, this year sure is marching on fast. I won't make my shout yet but it seems like I'll have a lot of making up to do after a poor September one. October is one of my favourite months, the leaves turning, the nights drawing in and the often windy and gloomy weather it brings. Halloween wouldn't be the same if it were in May!

[BornFromTheVoid]

I think this is right.

61-90= 10.6C

71-00= 10.4C

81-10= 10.7C

Last 10 years= 11.1C.

I'm gonna go for 11.4C.

My guess being for strong high pressure to the southwest frequently ridging across the country. General +ve NAO pattern.

[Methuselah]

And I'll guess at 10.7C...

[Barry12]

10.3 is my guess

[Roger J Smith]

October CET averages and trivia

20.2 ... warmest day, 1st 1985

20.1 ... second warmest day, 1st 2011

13.3 ... warmest month 2001

13.1 ... second warmest month 2005

13.0 ... third warmest months, 1969 and 2006

12.7 ... 8th warmest, warmest of 19th century 1831

12.3 ... tied 12th and warnest of 18th century 1731

11.3 ... mean 2001-2011

10.7 ... mean 1981-2010

10.6 ... mean 1961-1990

10.3 ... mean 1971-2000

10.2 ... mean 1901-2000

9.7 .... mean for all years 1659-2011

9.5 .... mean 1801-1900

9.4 .... mean 1701-1800

9.3 .... mean 1659-1700

7.8 .... tied 26th coldest, coldest recent past, 1974 and 1992

7.5 .... tied 8th coldest, coldest 20th century 1905

6.5 .... tied 3rd coldest, 1683 and 1692

6.4 .... second coldest 1817

5.3 .... coldest 1740

0.3 .... coldest day (since 1772, guessing some subzero days in 1740) 29th, 1895

[SteveB]

9.9c for me please.

[NorthYorksWeather]

8.97 please

[Robbie Garrett]

14C

You always go for the opposite extreme to me

[summer blizzard]

10.2C for me, an unsettled pattern with frequent north westerlies keepings things generally cool but quite wet.

[DeepSnow]

10.5 for me

[Styx]

12.6 thanks.

I don't have a reason why.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

9.6 for me - what do I win?

[Styx]

9.6 for me - what do I win?

Jealousy from everyone else

[Snowstorm1]

10.1c

[Barry12]

Met office going for below average:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/n/3/A3-plots-temp-OND.pdf

[Roger J Smith]

10.8

[AWD]

Mmmmm...... a bit of influence from the GFS here so I think I will take a punt at.......

11.6

[Mark Bayley]

10.5c

[stewfox]

10c for me back to real autumns

[Isolated Frost]

9.7c. I smell a cold one, a la October 2008. Fairly mild spells interspersed but one taste of winter at least, and potent at that.