Child Of Nadine (Karin) - Severe Weather Discussion

[pyrotech]

Nadine herself is off to Africa amongst other places:

All models now showing Nadine to go clockwise around the high pressure in mid Atlantic, as shown few days ago.

This really has been unusual in a tropical storm being firstly trapped in one location ( so far North and East )for so long without dissapating in the cooler waters compared to Carribean waters. Then unusual again in the models all getting the timing and track wrong, but generally singing from the same song sheet and getting it wrong. Lets see if they finally have got a grip on Nadine.

I think child of Nadine has finally been pretty much determined, but has she got a sting in her tail for the UK.?

[Eskimo]

The precipitation is now grazing Cornwall. The fun and games are now officially on.

[Aaron]

18z for Monday 9pm

[Liam J]

Anywhere away from Scotland/Northern Britain and parts of Ireland - Well basically locations south of the depression centre, I don't think the wind is going to be of much concern, yes it'll be windy for many but nothing to be overly concerned about damage etc.

18z for Monday 9pm

60-65mm near my location...

[Buzzit]

I note that air pressure is currently about 4mb less on the SW coast than the S coast. 1014 vs 1018

[Coast]

Here it comes, get your brollies ready!

[Liam J]

GFS 18z showing gusts around 60mph+ across northern areas.

Strongest gusts actually towards Norway on this run, upwards of 70mph.

Edited September 22, 2012 by Liam J

[pyrotech]

Some Sferics showing up now aroumd Bay of Biscay tracking North

[Liam J]

Just ran through the 18z and the GFS is showing Nadine eventually affecting the UK after drifting NW then interacting with a strong jet.

The depression over the UK is ex TS Nadine. All FI at the moment

ECM also shows Nadine hitting the UK as powerful depression.

Edited September 22, 2012 by Liam J

[Buzzit]

Based on the current satellite and rainfall imagery I can see the Met's orange warning area being extended much futher east than the SW pocket

[Coast]

Based on the current satellite and rainfall imagery I can see the Met's orange warning area being extended much futher east than the SW pocket

Yep, could be some suprises in the morning......

[toggerob]

Might be my imagination but GFS hinting out at a squall-line along the convergence moving northwards through Monday. Potent cells likely imho as the qasi-stationary low plumes tropical a influenced airmass up into the north.

[Liam J]

Based on the current satellite and rainfall imagery I can see the Met's orange warning area being extended much futher east than the SW pocket

Yep, could be some suprises in the morning......

Yeah - a huge mass of cloud looming to the south & west.

Latest satellite analysis

Edited September 22, 2012 by Liam J

[knocker]

. Potent cells likely imho as the qasi-stationary low plumes tropical a influenced airmass up into the north.

Excuse my ignorance but what exactly does that mean?

[Rainy]

What sort of rainfall totals can i expect here in lancashire.I remember when it flooded back in june, in darwen where my friend lives they had an inch and a half in 20 mins.

Simon --- in our current pre-natal state here in Lancs -- we've already had 177.5 mm in the hills this Sept so far. And that's a top up after 3 extremely wet summer months.

We are full to the brim. I dread to think what we shall be like after another very wet week.

Had a lovely dry day though on Sat. A remarkable novelty.

Enjoying all the links everyone. Thank you.

[cyclonic happiness]

I think he missed the word 'arctic' from the quote.

He thinks that it'll be more active because of the way the air masses are interacting

Excuse my ignorance but what exactly does that mean?

[Purplepixii]

Here it comes, get your brollies ready!

You can keep yer brollie, I'm a gettin' me one of these

[Coast]

You can keep yer brollie, I'm a gettin' me one of these

You are going to need it PP!

[toggerob]

Excuse my ignorance but what exactly does that mean?

The low pressure center will be situated across England (moving slowly NE before being in-situ across the Irish Sea later on in the week.) Fronts 'spiral' around the center of rotation pluming up warmer moist air off the Bay of Biscay into southern and central parts, while at the same time dragging cooler air down off Norway and into Scotland. The fronts balleting around each other will be what fires off the precip as both topographic, orographic, and convective works come into play.

[andy100]

I'm looking forward to this, love deep lows.

p.s. Well Done Ricky Burns.

[ZONE 51]

As you all most likely know by now a Storm is on it's way to cause distruption to ALL AREAS over the next few days, please keep up to date with the warnings and forecasts, the Storm starts today, prolonged heavy and for some torrential rainfall causing flooding, very strong and potentially damaging winds are likely to develop, trees are in full leaf and some trees maybe weak, distruption to transport and outdoor events are likely from the rain/wind events from this deep low pressure weather system, there is also over the next few days a risk of thunderstorms and squalls.

Edited September 23, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[AWD]

Latest NAE:

Wales & central Northern area seeing the most precip?

[Keraunic]

Mornin each. Will it be a case of "fasten yer seat belts-it's gonna be a bumpy ride" for the next 48 hrs?

Very calm here but very low black clouds scudding over. Could this be baby's vanguard?

Have a good un everyone and stay safe and dry. â˜â˜â˜â˜â˜

[AWD]

Mornin each. Will it be a case of "fasten yer seat belts-it's gonna be a bumpy ride" for the next 48 hrs?

Very calm here but very low black clouds scudding over. Could this be baby's vanguard?

Have a good un everyone and stay safe and dry. â˜â˜â˜â˜â˜

Don't think the winds will be nothing exceptional for Norwich, although it will be very blowy.

Think the rain could be more of an issue, although again, Norwich should avoid the worst of this.

We have a frontal band moving up over the channel right now, this will carry on north throughout the day. This will only be moderately heavy. Behind this is where some very heavy rain could occur, with heavy pulses moving into southern England. I think parts of Wales, the West Country, the south coast, London & Kent could see some very heavy rainfall Sunday evening/night/Monday morning.

Then later on Monday & into Tuesday, it's the turn of the north, with heavy and persistent rain across central northern areas & southern Scotland.

Rainfall continues again on Tuesday & Wednesday, this time more showery in nature.

I think by Wednesday evening there could be some very large rainfall totals around. I have a gauge in my garden ready, and I'm leaving it there until Wednesday to see exactly how much falls.

I got to admit, I ramped this up during the last few days, but in reality, it's only so noticeable due to the fact we have had such benign weather up until this point, and this is the first Autumn storm this season for many. In reality, there is a good chance more storms of a similar nature could hit over the next couple of months. Saying that, I don't think we will see too many storms exceed the rainfall totals that this one could.

Look forward to reading all the reports on here as events unfold.

Edited September 23, 2012 by AWD

[Coast]

NetWeather extra radar, this is going to be handy in the next 48 hours:

Latest SatRep analysis:

Currently seems to be mostly to the South of us.

Oh dear, NMM charts show significant accumulation overnight, 40mm+ in Southern and Western coastal areas: