Child Of Nadine (Karin) - Severe Weather Discussion

Methuselah · September 22, 2012

Latest fax charts not painting a good picture - Best start building an ark!! Severe easterly gales on the lows northern flank.

Atrocious conditions through central/northern UK on this chart.

Off-topic I know. But - if this were mid-January?

**Paul** · September 22, 2012

Off-topic I know. But - if this were mid-January?

We'd all be a bit fatter?

Sainsbo · September 22, 2012

Off-topic I know. But - if this were mid-January?

If this were mid January there wouldn't be a Tropical Storm to spawn this

Edited September 22, 2012 by Sainsbo

Liam J · September 22, 2012

Off-topic I know. But - if this were mid-January?

Simliar conditions, maybe slightly cooler - This system is of tropical origins so unless we had a frigid airmass in place then it's just be wet wet wet. Were you thinking epic snow and blizzards?

Edited September 22, 2012 by Liam J

Cheese Rice · September 22, 2012

Simliar conditions, maybe slightly cooler - This system is of tropical origins so unless we had a frigid airmass in place then it's just be wet wet wet. Were you thinking epic snow and blizzards?

Maybe if it bumped into some colder air there would be blizzards up on the highlands.

Edited September 22, 2012 by Cheese Rice

Thunder Snow · September 22, 2012

The bbc weather forecasts at the Moment are rubbish lol, not much detail at all. The rain does not seem to heavy apart from the south west and Wales for a time? Then lighter to mod stuff

johnholmes · September 22, 2012

I was once told by the late Paul Bartlett that there was also in issue with missing data, which in turn didn't help the models get a true grasp on things. Is this correct?

It did not feature in any discussions I heard nor in the final report if my memory is correct. I've lost the link I once had to the actual report the Met O issued but I suppose if you search on the Met O site it would be found eventually?

Eskimo · September 22, 2012

The bbc weather forecasts at the Moment are rubbish lol, not much detail at all. The rain does not seem to heavy apart from the south west and Wales for a time? Then lighter to mod stuff

Rubbish for your location or rubbish in general?

wimblettben · September 22, 2012

Worth mentioning that every model will likely show a different scenario and if one shows a less deeper low then it doesn't suddenly mean that the general theme is for it to be downgraded.

Thunder Snow · September 22, 2012

Rubbish for your location or rubbish in general?

In general at the moment for this event

Liam J · September 22, 2012

In general at the moment for this event

I've never been a fan of TV forecasts, I expect a more comprehensive forecast will go live once confidence grows even further. As per the BBC weather video posted on the last page ''we are now less uncertain and more confident''

wimblettben · September 22, 2012

I've never been a fan of TV forecasts, I expect a more comprehensive forecast will go live once confidence grows even further. As per the BBC weather video posted on the last page ''we are now less uncertain and more confident''

I would have to agree.

Just checked latest BBC forecast which only mentions wind gusts of 50mph on coasts. Going by models it is likely to be higher then this, more like 60mph.

Bobby · September 22, 2012

NMM looks wet with 2 inches fairly widely and up to 3 inches in places, maybe more even.

AWD · September 22, 2012

UKMO suggests the heaviest rain could be on Tuesday in the north of the UK, lasting a good 24 hours too, only very slowly receeding west:

Very heavy rain across the central lowlands.

Roger J Smith · September 22, 2012

Instead of child of Nadine, why not kicked-out lover of Nadine, that would make this a bit more tabloid-friendly.

I agree that rainfall potential is moderate more than heavy. The biggest rainfall potential is probably in Ulster and adjacent parts of the Irish Republic (bearing in mind that Donegal and two other counties of the ROI are part of Ulster). Local rainfalls of 40-60 mm appear possible around Belfast extending WSW into Fermanagh and then 20-40 mm amounts in west central Ireland. That would be mainly on Monday night into Tuesday morning. Parts of Wales could see 30-60 mm but otherwise I feel that 15-30 mm will be a fairly common outcome for the UK. Flood potential is probably greatest for Severn valley western tribs.

The winds should ramp up rather steadily on Monday night across northeast England and eastern Scotland as the low deepens and draws in 40-60 mph winds from the ENE. Peak gusts should occur where channelling allows local max gusts to develop, and bear in mind that stronger winds will occur during rapid deepening phase than after the low becomes steady-state.

This is probably going to draw a fair amount of let-down and damp squib comments so don't be too shocked if it under-performs, the dynamics are not as strong as the isobars alone might suggest. At the same time, a few places possibly around Wiltshire will do pretty well for thunder and hail from local convection in a moist unstable SW flow on Tuesday.

Aaron · September 22, 2012

Poor Birmingham are set to get the worst of it because they are forecast to move up the M6 on Monday..

Iceni · September 22, 2012

Partly correct

I was part of the team given the task of trying to find out why Met got it wrong in the end (only by about 80 miles!) when for the previous 3 days the Met O model was spot on but the last 24 hours the French model (not sure if they have one now) got it correct.

So it's YOU I have to thank for being without power for 6 weeks and without water for the first twoâ€¦ you can go off people

Liam J · September 22, 2012

Poor Birmingham are set to get the worst of it because they are forecast to move up the M6 on Monday..

Must be some serious up drafts associated with this system!

Eskimo · September 22, 2012

Must be some serious up drafts associated with this system!

That's a howler of a mistake!

AWD · September 22, 2012

Latest NAE has stepped back a bit on the totals compared to its 12z run, but the rainfall looks a little more widepsread into eastern England on this run, plus there is a hell of a lot coming up from the SW still

**Paul** · September 22, 2012

Nice timelapse - 'Waiting for Nadine' from the South Downs today by DaveLp

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74492-child-of-nadine-proving-to-be-a-headache/page__pid__2370604#entry2370604

carl1980 · September 22, 2012

Mon 24 Sep BST

Â Wind Avg. Â Gust Temp. Rain Weather Cloud Visibility Pressure