Child Of Nadine (Karin) - Severe Weather Discussion

[lorenzo]

UKMO NAE chart courtesy of @fergieweather

#deluge

[johnholmes]

nice to look at but I am sure they are Met O property and he knows or should know NOT to put them out publicly-just my opinion

[AWD]

What's the difference between the UKMO NAE and the NAE we can see that I posted earlier?

I ask because they show slightly, admittedly very slightly, different areas getting the heaviest rain?

Are they two different models?

[bobbydog]

yes to support this post as I have commented in reply to a couple.

It is very well covered in the post from chino, explaining why it will deepen but not in any shape or form as the 1987 storm. Its a different situation.

if i remember rightly john, the 1987 storm was already forecast to have hurricane strength winds, it did not suddenly deepen and become a severe storm, it was the track of the storm which changed unexpectedly. it was forecast to hit northern france but veered north to hit southern england, with little warning. as you say, a different situation.

[Paul]

36 Hour totals from the NMM are impressive, and more to come beyond 36hrs too..

[simon29]

What is the record for a low pressure system to bomb in a relatively short space of time.For example could a 990 mb low drop to a 950 low in say 6 or 12 hours and if it did what would happen.

[lorenzo]

North Atlantic European model, one and the same I think..

The one I re-posted from Twitter is the graphic usually seen in the chief forecaster videos issued on youtube by the Meto.

It may have extra information built in versus the public released NAE runs.

Different Meto models page here http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/modelling-systems/unified-model/weather-forecasting

[Paul]

During Monday evening and into the night the wind continues to increase in the North where winds will be around 40mph to 50mph. Very heavy rain for Eastern Scotland.

Don't forget they are mean speeds - gusts will be higher..

[Methuselah]

if i remember rightly john, the 1987 storm was already forecast to have hurricane strength winds, it did not suddenly deepen and become a severe storm, it was the track of the storm which changed unexpectedly. it was forecast to hit northern france but veered north to hit southern england, with little warning. as you say, a different situation.

I think that you are both right, b...

[johnholmes]

if i remember rightly john, the 1987 storm was already forecast to have hurricane strength winds, it did not suddenly deepen and become a severe storm, it was the track of the storm which changed unexpectedly. it was forecast to hit northern france but veered north to hit southern england, with little warning. as you say, a different situation.

Partly correct

I was part of the team given the task of trying to find out why Met got it wrong in the end (only by about 80 miles!) when for the previous 3 days the Met O model was spot on but the last 24 hours the French model (not sure if they have one now) got it correct.

[AWD]

North Atlantic European model, one and the same I think..

The one I re-posted from Twitter is the graphic usually seen in the chief forecaster videos issued on youtube by the Meto.

It may have extra information built in versus the public released NAE runs.

Different Meto models page here http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/modelling-systems/unified-model/weather-forecasting

Thanks for that. The UKMO NAE should be a tad more reliable than the raw NAE output then, with a human influence to it.

[johnholmes]

North Atlantic European model, one and the same I think..

The one I re-posted from Twitter is the graphic usually seen in the chief forecaster videos issued on youtube by the Meto.

It may have extra information built in versus the public released NAE runs.

Different Meto models page here http://www.metoffice...her-forecasting

fine IF the senior man has used them but only if he has

[Team Jo]

Don't ofter throw my two penneth in over here, I've posted in the SE thread too, and I'm sorry if you look at it already - but I recommend http://www.meteox.co.uk/forecastloop.aspx?type=1&continent=europa along with http://www.xcweather.co.uk in Tandem with the NW extra Radar for following this bad boy. I mean Girl.

[lorenzo]

Latest video about La Nadine from the beeb

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/19687222

[suffolkboy_]

Partly correct

I was part of the team given the task of trying to find out why Met got it wrong in the end (only by about 80 miles!) when for the previous 3 days the Met O model was spot on but the last 24 hours the French model (not sure if they have one now) got it correct.

I was once told by the late Paul Bartlett that there was also in issue with missing data, which in turn didn't help the models get a true grasp on things. Is this correct?

Certainly a very interesting few days of weather watching coming up. As many have already said (as are the Met), rain is likely to be the main concern in the coming days. With the depression then possibly becoming a little 'flabby' and hanging around the UK for a while, I wouldn't be surprised to see some high totals from showers alone later in the week, very slow moving close to the center of the low.

A good possibility of some select few parts of the country seeing close to 6inches of rainfall by this time next week I would say.

[Sainsbo]

Only localised flooding? Looks like it may be worse than that..

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Latest video about La Nadine from the beeb

http://www.bbc.co.uk...atures/19687222

Birmingham is too far north on there for monday!

[Keraunic]

Aww, I've just seen the satellite images. He's a little cracker isn't he?

But seriously, hope everyone is safe and damage, if any, is minimal. â˜â˜â˜â˜â˜ Good luck everyone.

[cyclonic happiness]

Birmingham is too far north on there for monday!

Yeah, they put Brum where Manchester should be lol.

[simon29]

What sort of rainfall totals can i expect here in lancashire.I remember when it flooded back in june, in darwen where my friend lives they had an inch and a half in 20 mins.

[Zenarcher]

ECM looks like it has downgraded it slightly this evening but still plenty of wet and windy weather ahead,

Comparison between the GFS, ECM and UKMO at 48 hours not much difference but we see the GFS going for the deepest pressure,

At 72 hours we have good agreement there mainly between the UKMO and ECM while the GFS goes for something a bit deeper,

Edited September 22, 2012 by weathermaster

[Lynxus]

Very strong jet still predicted, As it exits north of the flow during sunday I think we are gonna see a lot of rapid convection, embedded CB's and as others have pointed LOTS of heavy rain.

Looks like its going to aid in a lot deeper development to me.

[Sainsbo]

What sort of rainfall totals can i expect here in lancashire.I remember when it flooded back in june, in darwen where my friend lives they had an inch and a half in 20 mins.

According to netweather, a lot. Maybe 80+mm in total.

[Keraunic]

What's the outlook for EA Norwich area on Monday or Ippy tomorrow. Is travel likely to be affected? We have a Yellow Warning at the moment but I suppose it could change.

[Robbie Garrett]

40-55mph gusts on costal areas, 41mph or so for London. Quite potent, but doesn't seem to match anything for 1987 nor would it match the last bad experience I had in 2002 when we had 75-80mph gusts in central London. 1987 according to the MetOffice website had 70knot gusts through London which would be about 80mph+

Probably going to be really wet....

http://www.metoffice...t2002storm.html

Edited September 22, 2012 by Robbie Garrett