Child Of Nadine (Karin) - Severe Weather Discussion

[Paul]

Thought I'd open up a new thread to discuss the potential severe weather as the 'Child of Nadine' moves in toward the UK.

Animation of the storm track/rainfall as of this morning;

Latest front page update regarding the storm

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=1235;sess=

Could be a really bumpy few days...

[Sainsbo]

Looks like' it will be very wet. The MetO probaly will update their warnings later today?

[Paul]

I'm sure they'll be updating as and when - it's still quite uncertain as to how everything will pan out.

Latest 36 hour rain totals show the initial burst of rain coming into the south of the country - with plenty to follow in behind beyond the 36 hour point as it all heads north...

[chiffer]

Great potential for the south east and surrounding areas, I'll have to see what happens here in nw England. Got a feeling this storm has been underated in potential however.

[Luke]

I still can't work out how they came up with the backwards C shaped warning they seem to have in force now.

Edited September 22, 2012 by Luke

[Backtrack]

Thought I'd open up a new thread to discuss the potential severe weather as the 'Child of Nadine' moves in toward the UK.

Animation of the storm track/rainfall as of this morning;

Latest front page update regarding the storm

http://www.netweathe...ryid=1235;sess=

Could be a really bumpy few days...

This is certainly a different track to what was shown yesterday, it's tracked a lot further west.

I can't check right now, but do we have any agreement to whether that animation will be the final outcome of this system, or is it still to be decided at this short range?

[Summer Sun]

An amber alert has now been issued for South West England on Sunday and Monday

Everywhere except Orkney & Shetland and Highlands & Eilean Siar have a weather warning now for Monday

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/

[chionomaniac]

Some may be wondering why child of Nadine intensifies during Monday.

She enters Sunday as around a 996mb depression and then intensifies during Monday to sit over the centre of the country by Tues morning at around 976mb. Surely extra tropical depressions should lose intensity as they cross colder waters?

The easy answer is to say that she joins forces with the existing depression to the NW - but it is a little bit more complex than that.

To show why we need to look at the jet stream.

On the following chart I have indicated the left exit zone of a jet streak in the jet stream.

The child of Nadine reaching this area at the right time is critical to further development. The jet streak is the area where the fast jet stream winds are diverging - creating a lower pressure upper air anomaly that has to be filled from somewhere. The answer is that lower level winds rush in and up to fill that void - intensifying the surface depression. And with these lower winds holding a lot of warmth and moisture due to the original Nadine's source, then the result is an awful lot of rain as Paul has highlighted above.

The GFS has the depression bottoming out at around 976 - with the UKMO and ECM less intense.

However, it is the warmth and moisture content that are of most concern with this system. If it engages the jet stream for longer then the amount of moist air pulled in will lead to some very high rainfall totals.

It is also worth putting in the dew points and 850 temps. These show the warm moist airmass to our south that rises, cools and condenses as it travels across the country.

Edited September 22, 2012 by chionomaniac

[Bobby]

Blimey, GFS is showing a lot of rain over the next few days

Floods if that's right probably.

[Chris K]

Blimey, GFS is showing a lot of rain over the next few days

Floods if that's right probably.

I'm surprised Wales doesn't have an amber alert really, although I guess they need a bit more time to firm up on how this system is going to track and just how much rain heads in...plus what happens in the following days after..

Edited September 22, 2012 by Chris K

[simon29]

Could this storm eclipse all of the previous flooding weve had this year.

[Cloud 10]

Not far away now,could be with us for quite a while once it gets here.

[aggy]

THE ONLY TIME I PRAY FOR DECENT WEATHER THIS HAPPENS. IM GOIN TO STAY IN A CARAVN IN NORTH WALES MON TO FRI ...... U MAY SEE ME ON THE TELLY GETTING RESCUED BY THE COASTGUARD YIPEEEEEEE! NOT

not looking forward to drive down either

[Sainsbo]

Stay safe, Aggy.

Hope this pays off, we have had 2.2mm of rain here this month.

[Coast]

SatRep latest, batton down the hatches and get your wellies ready!

[simon29]

What is the current pressure of the storm.

[Zenarcher]

What is the current pressure of the storm.

It's around 995mb.

It's not really expected to deepen until Sunday night.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

How severe would the weather be if the whole of Nadine came to the UK rather than just the child low?

[Coast]

Regeneration as she moves through warmer waters?

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JohnnyParker/comment.html?entrynum=592

[chiffer]

Be worried if that does happen.

[Liam J]

Impressive satellite image of Nadine's offspring developing to the west of Iberia. Nice vortex spinning with dry air being sucked in behind the cold front and embedded thunderstorms. Looking forward to the 12z suite thats for sure...

[simon29]

Could this still turn into a repeat of 1987 or is that not possible now.

[Bobby]

I can see the shield of cirrus approaching to the S now.

[Sainsbo]

Can't wait for this - Being very underrated in my opinion.

Any chance this thing could bomb overnight?

Edited September 22, 2012 by Sainsbo

[Staffordshire]

Can't wait for this - Being very underrated in my opinion.

me also, id love to be on the hills of wales could be some very intense rain!