Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2

[Met4Cast]

The saviour for me last winter was early February when we saw about a week of lying snowfall, pre 2008 a week of snowfall lying on the ground would have been a dream, so can't complain too much. It was a long time coming though

[garbagebags]

You can almost guarantee 1-2 decent snow events even in the mildest of all winters - lets not panic and just enjoy the ride - seriously.

We got NOTHING last year (Glasgow)

[stewfox]

The saviour for me last winter was early February when we saw about a week of lying snowfall, pre 2008 a week of snowfall lying on the ground would have been a dream, so can't complain too much. It was a long time coming though

In the 90s it seem some sleet or a snow shower late March was the best I got IMBY. I joined this forum when lamp post watching at 4am for a snow flake was still very common.

In 2012 8/9 days of lying snow in Feb but for most it was still a 'poor /crap winter' go figure. I know they didnt all camp IMBY but even so...

[January Snowstorm]

Interesting to see height rises over Greenland showing for early October.

Not sure of the stats but after years of model watching I would have thought Greeny highs in October are very unusual ?!

[bobbydog]

Im not sure what the panic or negativity is about. Not only are we still 3 months away from any kind of 'winter' - no matter what kind of technology is used no accurate or even remotely accurate kind of forecast, theme or prediction can be picked up on. Sure far away signals are available to give us a slight outline of the facts, but how often do we here about 'BBQ summers' in February that are backed up by charts at that point, only to find a summer full of storms and rain. It's exactly the same situation just at a different time of the year.

Why do we all love winter? Snow. Ice and frost are good, but they are secondary. You can almost guarantee 1-2 decent snow events even in the mildest of all winters - lets not panic and just enjoy the ride - seriously.

we're actually 9 1/2 weeks away from the official start of winter. ( 9 1/2 weeks.... wasn't that a film......? oo-err.... )

[Ruzzi]

we're actually 9 1/2 weeks away from the official start of winter. ( 9 1/2 weeks.... wasn't that a film......? oo-err.... )

Better yet, I'd say we're 7-8 weeks away from when the serious fun and games can POTENTIALLY start ...... ala november 2010

[cheeky_monkey]

its just over a week away for me if local forecasts are to be believed. snow is forecast for 5th October thru to the 8th October

Edited September 26, 2012 by cheeky_monkey

[chionomaniac]

its just over a week away for me if local forecasts are to be believed. snow is forecast for 5th October thru to the 8th October

What is your first snow date in a normal year, cm?

[cheeky_monkey]

What is your first snow date in a normal year, cm?

Can vary but usually the third week in October..can be as early as the 2nd week in September or late as mid November

[chionomaniac]

Can vary but usually the third week in October..can be as early as the 2nd week in September or late as mid November

So slightly earlier than normal. Any wild temperature fluctuations on the cards either?

[Geordiesnow]

Let's no allow the media reports of the February cold spell last year to taint our memories of the whole winter!

For Europe, it was generally a close to average winter overall

With a mild December to January

Balanced by a very cold February

Kind of a reverse of winter 2010/11 for the British Isles

But the point is, the winter did produce blocking even if perhaps the long term indications did not apparently supported this but I still think if the easterly winds set up right and bought more snowfall and even colder air then people will have better memories of last winter.

[cheeky_monkey]

So slightly earlier than normal. Any wild temperature fluctuations on the cards either?

we are coming of the back of a hot sunny and dry summer..this weekend will still see temps up to 25c..i would expect if we get snow early in October it wont stick around for long and wouldn't be surprised to see temps go back up to the low 20s afterwards at some point before October is out.

Edited September 26, 2012 by cheeky_monkey

[Cloud 10]

Nice to see some warm temperature anomalies up the western side of greenland....

[syed2878]

hi people if i'm rite didn't the cfs called this summer right or have i got that wrong? If not then should we discount it totaly? Also reading on here isn't the met showing 60-80percent chance of below avrage winter for the u.k.

[syed2878]

we maybe 9.5 weeks away from start of winter going by the met's 16-30day outlook parts of scotland could have wintery showers in october.

[Methuselah]

we maybe 9.5 weeks away from start of winter going by the met's 16-30day outlook parts of scotland could have wintery showers in october.

Which is hardly unusual, syed?

[gottolovethisweather]

hi people if i'm rite didn't the cfs called this summer right or have i got that wrong? If not then should we discount it totaly? Also reading on here isn't the met showing 60-80percent chance of below avrage winter for the u.k.

On the whole, I think it did predict a pretty cool wet summer, but obviously not the monsoon type that most of us actually witnessed. I think Robbie Garnett will be able to answer your query more precisely as he was following that model for most of spring and summer.

As I said previously, you can take what you like from the CFS models and other output, but to me, they are simply a general guide to anticipated future conditions. I often go on instinct and as I'm not qualified or experienced enough to understand all the climatic indicators in that I am still learning. My gut feeling in the short-term is that we are overdue a cold October and I've thought that for a while now. November is yet still 35 days or so away.

A lot of the posts in here concern personal memories of snow and ice events which is fine by me. Remember however, even if the bitterest winter since records began was forecast and verified, it is still again down to location, location, location as to who got some action and who didn't.

I'm sorry that I am not adding much substance to the debate here but we're all here to learn more about this interesting climate of ours and I'm keen to listen to all your thoughts.

Keep it up.

Edited September 26, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Met4Cast]

In the 90s it seem some sleet or a snow shower late March was the best I got IMBY. I joined this forum when lamp post watching at 4am for a snow flake was still very common.

In 2012 8/9 days of lying snow in Feb but for most it was still a 'poor /crap winter' go figure. I know they didnt all camp IMBY but even so...

Exactly. I think we've been spoilt over the last couple of years (perhaps less so last year, some people didn't see anything) that we've forgotten how a toppler high pressure and a day of lying snow was the best we could really hope for before milder conditions pushed in.

Edited September 26, 2012 by Daniel AKA WMD

[gottolovethisweather]

Food for thought, cross-posted from the Model Output Discussion thread.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74255-model-output-discussion-26082012/page__st__700#entry2373934

[Aaron]

Which is hardly unusual, syed?

I'm not sure if snow is common in all of Scotland in October..

[Met4Cast]

Food for thought, cross-posted from the Model Output Discussion thread.

http://forum.netweat...00#entry2373934

Sounds fantastic, something I'd be a lot more excited about if we were heading into the second part of November, October just wont have the cold pooling to produce anything noteworthy, I just hope the potential for Northern Blocking doesn't burn itself out before we get to a time when we have real potential!

[Gavin Hannah]

I'm not sure if snow is common in all of Scotland in October..

It's pot luck really. If there's heavy snow forecast for Scotland in October, It's usually at best a minimum of 500m and above and north of Glasgow. Snow is more or less odds on, on the tops of the mountains, even in a mobile westerly pattern with the colder air being dragged down behind any sweeping low.

[Methuselah]

I'm not sure if snow is common in all of Scotland in October..

Why, is that what's forecast?

[Gavin Hannah]

Sounds fantastic, something I'd be a lot more excited about if we were heading into the second part of November, October just wont have the cold pooling to produce anything noteworthy, I just hope the potential for Northern Blocking doesn't burn itself out before we get to a time when we have real potential!

I have a feeling (Yes its a gut-cast) that it's going to be a slow burner this year. Late Nov / Early Dec at the earliest, but I reckon another 09/10 is on the cards. Exactly 5 days before Xmas. 20 Dec 09 .... What a day lol.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Food for thought, cross-posted from the Model Output Discussion thread.

http://forum.netweat...00#entry2373934

GP's conclusion...

"Either way, upper level zonal winds are still very light for the time of year across the polar field, and as we get deeper into the autumn, expect some very amplified patterns to develop"

...fits in very nicely with goings on in the Arctic.

A study this year by Francis and Vavrus came to this conclusion

In summary, the observational analysis presented in

this study provides evidence supporting two hypothesized

mechanisms by which Arctic amplification – enhanced Arctic

warming relative to that in mid-latitudes – may cause more

persistent weather patterns in mid-latitudes that can lead to

extreme weather.

One effect is a reduced poleward gradient

in 1000-500 hPa thicknesses, which weakens the zonal

upper-level flow. According to Rossby wave theory, a

weaker flow slows the eastward wave progression and tends

to follow a higher amplitude trajectory, resulting in slower

moving circulation systems. More prolonged weather conditions

enhance the probability for extreme weather due to

drought, flooding, cold spells, and heat waves.

The paper is here

http://marine.rutger...L051000_pub.pdf

We can see that the 500hPa geopotential height has been showing +ve anomalies across most of the Arctic Ocean so far this month, which contributes to the reduced poleward thickness gradient mentioned in the paper, encouraging a slower more high amplitude jet stream pattern.

This effect is strongest in the Autumn and Winter, as the new heat which accumulated in the Arctic Ocean, due to reduced sea ice cover in the summer, is released to the atmosphere during the cool down in Autumn. The warmer air then expands, increasing the atmospheric thickness relative to normal, and reducing the thickness gradient to more southerly latitudes.