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Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2


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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

I have a feeling (Yes its a gut-cast) that it's going to be a slow burner this year. Late Nov / Early Dec at the earliest, but I reckon another 09/10 is on the cards. Exactly 5 days before Xmas. 20 Dec 09 .... What a day lol.

Slow burners fine as long as long the potential is constantly there and eventually it takes off giving us epic snowfalls, what I'm dreading is last winter where we had to put up with mild mush, little potential until February came along!

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Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold.
  • Location: High Wycombe

Slow burners fine as long as long the potential is constantly there and eventually it takes off giving us epic snowfalls, what I'm dreading is last winter where we had to put up with mild mush, little potential until February came along!

Most depressing winter ever on the back of the previous two.

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

Most depressing winter ever on the back of the previous two.

Remember a few years ago the met office in the uk invested millions in some new system. Apparently using the new system gave them 72% accuracy for the next day. Just saying the weather would be the same as today was 68% accurate. acute.gif

So I'm not sure if your 68% or 72% accurate ??

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Posted
  • Location: Brussels, Belgium
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy weather in winter, dry and warm weather in summer
  • Location: Brussels, Belgium

we maybe 9.5 weeks away from start of winter going by the met's 16-30day outlook parts of scotland could have wintery showers in october.

Snow is quite normal in Highland Scotland at this time of year, nothing really out of the ordinary. However the snow we did see earlier this month in Scotland was unusual I believe.

Back in October 2008 I remember being up near Dublin and the place was covered in snow, at least for a while. Very unusual for that time of year, but the winter itself turned out to be fairly normal, aside from February 2009.

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Posted
  • Location: Brussels, Belgium
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy weather in winter, dry and warm weather in summer
  • Location: Brussels, Belgium

I've been off for a day and it seems there is panic around here for some unknown reason lol. help.gif

The signals for this winter are good...!

We are in a much better position than we were last autumn. I think all of us were grasping at straws last year.

Any coldies like me, looking at charts for mid winter this far out, will be driven to the point of insanity as they constantly chop and change.

Don't do it lol!!!!

I don't remember what it was like last Autumn but I imagine like most winters there would have been a lot of hype about the coming winter, regardless of the signs. Where the signs there for a mild winter well in advance or did they arrive later?

In any case, lets wait until some of the more accurate forecasters, Netweather included, release their forecasts.

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Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Weather Preferences: MCC/MCS Thunderstorms
  • Location: London, UK

I've been off for a day and it seems there is panic around here for some unknown reason lol. help.gif

The signals for this winter are good...!

We are in a much better position than we were last autumn. I think all of us were grasping at straws last year.

Any coldies like me, looking at charts for mid winter this far out, will be driven to the point of insanity as they constantly chop and change.

Don't do it lol!!!!

I think our expectations where slightly raised last Autumn due to the fact that November 2010 and December 2010 where absolutely bonkers, I suspect everyone has learnt there lesson to some extent.

hi people if i'm rite didn't the cfs called this summer right or have i got that wrong? If not then should we discount it totaly? Also reading on here isn't the met showing 60-80percent chance of below avrage winter for the u.k.

On the whole, I think it did predict a pretty cool wet summer, but obviously not the monsoon type that most of us actually witnessed. I think Robbie Garnett will be able to answer your query more precisely as he was following that model for most of spring and summer. sorry.gif

As I said previously, you can take what you like from the CFS models and other output, but to me, they are simply a general guide to anticipated future conditions. good.gif I often go on instinct and as I'm not qualified or experienced enough to understand all the climatic indicators in that I am still learning. My gut feeling in the short-term is that we are overdue a cold October and I've thought that for a while now. November is yet still 35 days or so away.

A lot of the posts in here concern personal memories of snow and ice events which is fine by me. Remember however, even if the bitterest winter since records began was forecast and verified, it is still again down to location, location, location as to who got some action and who didn't. cray.gif

I'm sorry that I am not adding much substance to the debate here but we're all here to learn more about this interesting climate of ours and I'm keen to listen to all your thoughts. good.gif

Keep it up.

GTLTW, that is correct. I did follow the CFS quite a bit actually, I was hoping for a warm Summer but obviously having read around and listening to others I decided to follow that model and it managed to give off very good signs.

A lot of people didn't really believe the model was good enough, but that all changed to CFS V2 and confidence in the CFS has grown. The CFS, which is available on Metociel and many other places can be a really good visual tool for those not indicative of the climate indicators.

There are two models available, the 1 month and the 9 monthly. The 1 monthly is very very very good for short-term prediction, I used it during Winter 2011/12 and managed to see a cold spell was coming end of January/early February pretty consistently.

Then obviously came March and April and May was a predicted washout.

I used the 9 monthly using the CFS 9 monthly model, with the CFS 1 monthly to verify what if they where both laying the same sort of foundations and having a look at various other ways data was laid out for the CFS.

This is what the 9 monthly predicted, compared to actually what happened Metoffice Blue.

CFS June/Personal View -

Fairly unsettled start to June, but a fairly decent weeks worth of Spanish Plume weather as we head towards the final end of June. As we get to the last week high pressure is likely to build across the UK prompting more warm and settled conditions, expect this to quickly become unsettle as we head into the 2nd month of Meteorological Summer.

Metoffice June -

The UK mean temperature was 0.3 °C below the 1971-2000 average and it was the coolest June since 1991. Daily maximum temperatures were well below normal, particularly in many central and eastern areas, with few warm days. Almost all areas were much wetter than normal, especially across much of England and Wales, southern and eastern Scotland and Northern Ireland. It was the wettest June across the UK in the series from 1910 (wetter than June 2007), and the equal-wettest June in the England and Wales series from 1766 (shared with June 1860). Only the far north-west of Scotland was drier than normal. Almost all areas were duller than usual, and it was provisionally the second dullest June in the series from 1929. The far north-west of Scotland was the sunnier exception.

CFS July/Personal View -

There is some suggestion that as we enter July, the NAO state begins to go back to a more negative state, prompting Northern Blocking to rebuild rather quickly over Greenland. However there is some considerable uncertainty, as if the NAO state remains more neutral the high pressure that could build over the UK is likely to remain a feature for a fairly settled July this had been shown for the last 2 months as a forecast for July, but July is now looking a fairly unsettled Month, but questions can be raised as to how, when why the Greenland block may re-appear prompting unsettled weather to predominately cross the UK.Another alternative is another Spanish Plume mid month which will be quickly broke down by the Atlantic as the NAO again head to negative, this could be seen as a repaint of June.

Metoffice July -

The UK mean temperature was 1.0 °C below the 1981-2010 average and it was the coolest July since 2000. It was a wet month, with many parts of England, North Wales and eastern Scotland having over twice their average rainfall. Only the far north-west of Scotland and west of Northern Ireland were drier than normal. Almost all areas were duller than usual, particularly Scotland where it was one of the dullest Julys on record.

CFS August/Personal View -

- August is a very long way away, but it looks like temperatures will be below average, as high pressure stays firm across Greenland prompting very unsettled conditions across the UK. There is obviously considerable uncertainty in this part of the long-range forecast due to the forseeable fact that the NAO state is very very hard to judge at this time.

Summary - This could have been a month to watch a few weeks back, but the NAO state is causing some headaches for the models as they chop and change.

Metoffice August -

- The UK mean temperature was 0.4 °C above the 1981-2010 average. It was a wet month in south-west England and south Wales and in northern England, southern and eastern Scotland, with a few areas having over twice the average rainfall. In contrast much of East Anglia and south-east England and parts of north-west Scotland and the west of Northern Ireland were drier than normal. Many areas were somewhat duller than usual, the sunnier exceptions being Northern Ireland and the western side of Scotland.

In terms of this winter, the key things that I am seeing at the moment are a negative NAO indicative by blocking over Greenland, and then obviously what is needed is a southerly tracking jetstream... occasionally and quite consistently now and again the CFS has been indicative of this.

The key for me is waiting for the countdown of this pattern, when things start going blocked. It looks highly likely that this wont be till end of November, Early December. Pretty much repainting 2010.

cfsnh-0-1566.png

cfsnh-0-1596.png

cfsnh-0-1614.png

Starting to re-build as it slightly goes colder again!!

cfsnh-0-1686.png

cfsnh-0-1728.png

cfsnh-0-1752.png

cfsnh-0-1770.png

cfsnh-0-1800.png

cfsnh-0-1836.png

I tell you what though, wait till the charts like this show up on the the GFS and ECMWF. The CFS is just giving a fantastic signal at the moment, of which since March 2012 has so far been correct......give credit where due.

Edited by Robbie Garrett
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Posted
  • Location: Brussels, Belgium
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy weather in winter, dry and warm weather in summer
  • Location: Brussels, Belgium

The saviour for me last winter was early February when we saw about a week of lying snowfall, pre 2008 a week of snowfall lying on the ground would have been a dream, so can't complain too much. It was a long time coming though

It really depended on where you were. Last year was a massive disappointment for my part of the world, even during the cold spell, simply because we were just too far west to see any of the cold. Ireland was the only country in Europe to have seen above average Feb temps:

NWS-NOAA_Europe_Extreme_minimum_temperature_FEB_5_-_FEB_11%2C_2012.gif

mad.gifmad.gifmad.gif

The only snow we did get was slushy, north-westerly snow that was gone by lunchtime. The year before that, virtually the entirety of Northern Europe received very cold temperatures, all of the UK/Ireland included.

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Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)

I don't remember what it was like last Autumn but I imagine like most winters there would have been a lot of hype about the coming winter, regardless of the signs. Where the signs there for a mild winter well in advance or did they arrive later?

In any case, lets wait until some of the more accurate forecasters, Netweather included, release their forecasts.

I wasn't a member of this forum last year(winter 2011-12) but was a member of another one i have subsequently given up on but there wasn't the hype that there seems to be this year on the possibilty of a cold winter.I admit i like the cold and snow but there seems to be more argued signals for colder weather this winter from a number of different sources compared to last year when i felt it was more hope and desperation from some people at this time of year.My "gut feeling" is we have a colder winter than last year but not as harsh as 2009-10.That would still give us a few good snowfalls and probably bring the country to a halt for a few days here and there!!

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Posted
  • Location: Bratislava, Slovakia
  • Location: Bratislava, Slovakia

Agree with the comments regarding February 2012. A few frosty days and two failed battleground events here (some slight freezing rain but otherwise heavy bog-standard rain). A classic s(t)inking high which gives most of the fun and games to places like Italy and Spain.

I was not impressed at all.

Edited by AderynCoch
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Posted
  • Location: Northallerton, North Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme Events
  • Location: Northallerton, North Yorkshire

Hi everyone I normally just read the posts on this forum as well as the posts over on the weather outlook because I don't really feel I have anything to add. I have noticed a few people asking what were the general consensus on winter predictions this time last year, I'm not sure if net weather has a classic posts thread but I know TWO does so this link may help get an idea:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/yaf_postst4252_Prospects-for-winter-2011-12.aspx

Different forum but there are a lot of cross over users between there and here. Thanks for the entertaining read by the way, very educational and enjoyable! That goes to those of you who post on the model output thread as well.

Edited by Formula_1_Fan
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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

CFS once again going for a southerly tracking jet again this morning.

I am gaining confidence that we should see at least one good cold spell this winter.

It seems keen on troughing in Europe, with potent NE/E outbreaks.

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers and cold snowy winters
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells

I only joined this forum last year, and am still on a MASSIVE learning curve -I know it's hard to accurately predict anything from more than 72 hours away - but at what point do you think we might allow ourselves to get just a little bit, properly, excited? Mid-October when the whole SSW thing kicks in (assuming everything else is still falling into place by then?) I suppose what I'd like to know is, if all the factors continue to look promising for a cold winter as October progresses, is it possible that other factors could unexpectedly come into play bringing it all crashing down around our ears?

You can tell the events of winter 2011/2012 have had a long-term effect on my psyche...

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Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

CFS once again going for a southerly tracking jet again this morning.

I am gaining confidence that we should see at least one good cold spell this winter.

It seems keen on troughing in Europe, with potent NE/E outbreaks.

Its good to see this, i am also hopeful. As closer we get to these timeframes the better, i think we will see a severe cold/snow spell, this side of xmas. From what i have read so far and seen it reminds me a little bit of 2010. I know along way to go and can swing the other way, but all looking good upto now!

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Great ECM output last night and that certainly would be a cold lovers dream if we were in winter! But with lack of significant cold pooling and it being so early in the autumn season it wouldn't produce anything of note. Perhaps northern blocking would still be prevalent during the winter months, interesting times ahead I think folks...

What a huge let down if we exhausted the northern blocking potential so early on during Sept/Oct without any proper cold periods of weather - However I'd happily take a drier than average autumn after the copious amounts of rainfall we've experience during the last 3-4 months.

Long range predicitons and forecasts along with CFS charts etc are to be treated with a good deal of caution, just be happy with the state of things as they currently stand - We couldn't hope for anything more at this stage? Even if we were all sat here looking at every atmosperic/stratospheric variable screaming one scenario materialising X months down the line, everything could still go rather pear shaped which has been proven many times in the past when a seasonal forecast has gone very wrong.

Edited by Liam J
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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

Re. last winter, December contained numerous marginal snow events in the north but snow cover was generally short-lived at low levels except in parts of western and northern Scotland. January was largely snow free at low levels, while February had two significant snow events over much of England, but much of Scotland, Ireland and parts of Wales and northern England largely missed out. In Tyne and Wear there was a notable "ice-storm" on the 4th February, with an increasing tendency for snow further south into Yorkshire.

The autumn was remarkably snow-free, while the spring had a few marginal snow events but no widespread snow cover at low levels.

On my "Winter Snow Events" index the winter scored 28 which put it on a par with 2003/04 and 2004/05, but it was easily the least snowy since 2007/08.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

I was rather lucky last winter and actually experienced more snowfall than the previous winter!

However the highlight for me of the past few winters was definitely Dec 18th 2009 when max temps were -4C, frequent heavy snow showers, lying snowfall amounts around 20cm. The other highlight was lying snow on xmas day on both 2009 & 2010. I don't think that has ever happened in my location before in successive winters and imagine it will be a while before that happens again.

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Posted
  • Location: Newcastle under lyme 160m asl
  • Location: Newcastle under lyme 160m asl

Here in stoke we had snow on the 16th of December last year and it snowed all day it was great it didn't stick around long thought as temps started to increase the next day . We got a few inches thought

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

I only joined this forum last year, and am still on a MASSIVE learning curve -I know it's hard to accurately predict anything from more than 72 hours away - but at what point do you think we might allow ourselves to get just a little bit, properly, excited? Mid-October when the whole SSW thing kicks in (assuming everything else is still falling into place by then?) I suppose what I'd like to know is, if all the factors continue to look promising for a cold winter as October progresses, is it possible that other factors could unexpectedly come into play bringing it all crashing down around our ears?

You can tell the events of winter 2011/2012 have had a long-term effect on my psyche...

SSW's don't happen in October, that is simply when we can judge whether they are likely to occur later.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

Here in stoke we had snow on the 16th of December last year and it snowed all day it was great it didn't stick around long thought as temps started to increase the next day . We got a few inches thought

The 16th December also brought the biggest snow event of the winter to the Tyne and Wear area. A small band of rain moved northwards overnight 15th/16th, ahead of the main frontal belt that affected Stoke, and then it retreated southwards, turning to snow as it did so. As a result, Cleadon had a few centimetres of snow, with more than that in some inland places and on higher ground. Showers followed behind off the North Sea although they turned to hail and sleet as a pool of slightly milder air moved in, and this trimmed away some of the snow cover. Nonetheless, there was more than 50% snow cover at Cleadon on the mornings of the 17th and 18th.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Here's one for you all;

Do you prefer frontal snowfall or frequent heavy snow showers?

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Posted
  • Location: Stockport
  • Location: Stockport

It really depended on where you were. Last year was a massive disappointment for my part of the world, even during the cold spell, simply because we were just too far west to see any of the cold. Ireland was the only country in Europe to have seen above average Feb temps:

You know you've had a poor winter when your min temps are competing with the Greek isles! That cold spell was much of a non event here in northwest England, too. The "real" cold seemed to abruptly stop half way across England, here we were recording just 1 or 2 degrees below zero, if that, while just 100 miles away they were recording -15C in East Anglia near the coast.

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

Here's one for you all;

Do you prefer frontal snowfall or frequent heavy snow showers?

Heavy Snow Showers that merge to give Frontal Snow! blum.gif

Something like Feb 09 in the SE!

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