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Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2

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Part 2 of the thread where you can discuss your thoughts on the potential weather for this coming Winter season.

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Oooh, part 2 already.

All this snow we are going to get is causing mass exteria of excitement and I'M IN.

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I can hardly wait for all the recrimination, if it doesn't 'yamkin' down for at least six months' solid...laugh.png

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Well lets hope that this winter doesn't turn out to be one damp squib, or we could be seeing one mass suicide pact taking place right here. Just remember folks it's only weather!wacko.png

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1102small.jpg

All this snow we are going to get is causing mass exteria if excitement and I'M IN.

Oiiii!! cut that out !!!! rofl.gif

snowramp.JPG

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Has someone fed the CFS steroids this morning!

As Steve M stated in the previous thread, it is pure joy from November to March! help.gifcold.gifcold.gifcold.gifcold.gifcold.gifexcl.pngcrazy.gifcrazy.gifcrazy.gifcrazy.gif

Please weather God, we are not worthy! Please let it come true! yahoo.gifshok.gif

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How high can the ramping go?

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Morning

I am new to this and have loved all the comments and models displayed by you guys.

I was wondering how accurate the models have been for September weather that were perhaps put about in July, if there were any?

Cheers

Michael

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How high can the ramping go?

post-15543-0-87331400-1348213633_thumb.j

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Part 2!! Ha ha awesome.... Bring on the metre deep snow!

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That CFS run that Steve Murr has posted, is almost perfect, if only we could bank. Oh well, just a few days of cold & snow wouldn't be too bad would it lol

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Is that all you've got?

hot_wheels_record_ramp_indy_500.jpeg

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My view is that we are still stuck in a Meridional synoptic set. Therefore north western Europe will again be at more risk of bouts of very cold weather at times as blocking takes place disrupting the jet.

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Holy Moly, in 24 hours we've gone from 18 pages to a PART 2..........! Outrageous lol!! I didn't think the ramping would take off this fast lol.

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I am fairly new, i read more than i comment. I just love this!!!! My daughter and i are avid winter weather watchers.We both think it is going to be bad this year.

Just a silly observation but this year as with 2009 and2010 we had a lot of garden spiders come the autumn,but last year dont recall many, if any. Hope this a good omen

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Just to ramp things up further, I think today 0z GFS is the first of the season to bring -5C uppers across our shores in FI. Check out +360hrs.

Nailed on, of course!

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I am fairly new, i read more than i comment. I just love this!!!! My daughter and i are avid winter weather watchers.We both think it is going to be bad this year.

Just a silly observation but this year as with 2009 and2010 we had a lot of garden spiders come the autumn,but last year dont recall many, if any. Hope this a good omen

You must keep your eyes out for unusual Seagull movement as well. I'm sure someone will enlighten you on that particular omen, when he is around.

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Now now people, calm it with the ramping! We are still only in September. So from all thats been said it possibly looks like a cold end to Autumn, a relatively average if slightly below December and then a really cold end to Winter. At least that's what I've gleaned from all this chatter.

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got to say what steve just posted on the old thread was truly unbelievable. It will be a true ice age if that came off. what i will say is i have been thinking this for a while we could be in for a stonker of a winter this year........

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WIth signicant cold pooling to the East of Iceland, I suspect this will lead to increased likelihood of either Polar Maritime influx as we move into Winter months with occasional Easterlies as the Jet Rossby pattern build ridges of pressure into Siberia owing to pattern displacement. It looks like there will be a number of events.

These basic patterns result from the mix of energy states in the Pacific (v. -'ve), the Atlantic (+'ve), the Arctic fresh water mix (large cold spot as mentioned) and the UK's location on the energy gradient between the Polar air mass and sub-tropical air mass. This may play out as a drought for much of China - so look out for this in the coming months.

As an aside, from looking at the N.America synoptics, it looks like the NE region will have a hard Winter.

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Winter has already started in Scotland.

Earlier this week it was snowing on the mountains in Scotland and over the next 24 hours it is set to fall below freezing for ten of these hours in inland areas like Tulloch Bridge for instance. Temps will drop as low as minus 3 celcius.

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got to say what steve just posted on the old thread was truly unbelievable. It will be a true ice age if that came off. what i will say is i have been thinking this for a while we could be in for a stonker of a winter this year........

But look at the 06 CFS and you see something very different, although a fair winter it would still be.This sea ice domino effect, well I'm not sure it will lead to anything, I think its just part of the ongoing cycle. I mean the jet has been very meridional and shifted south for several years now, so if it is very disrupted, south, meridional then it isn't because of the sea ice situation this year? If so much ice has melted and Greenland is melting then how come SST anomaly is so warm around Southern Greenland. Melted ice is errrrr cold water? I'm taking that with a pinch of salt, and at best part of the ongoing process/cycle we are in.BFTP

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But look at the 06 CFS and you see something very different, although a fair winter it would still be.This sea ice domino effect, well I'm not sure it will lead to anything, I think its just part of the ongoing cycle. I mean the jet has been very meridional and shifted south for several years now, so if it is very disrupted, south, meridional then it isn't because of the sea ice situation this year? If so much ice has melted and Greenland is melting then how come SST anomaly is so warm around Southern Greenland. Melted ice is errrrr cold water? I'm taking that with a pinch of salt, and at best part of the ongoing process/cycle we are in.BFTP

Because the area has been dominated by high pressure for the last few months, allowing the sun to raise the SSTs.

post-6901-0-83890800-1348223044_thumb.gi

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